Skip to comments.Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'
Posted on 05/19/2013 5:25:54 PM PDT by presidio9
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.
Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.
But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.
The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.
But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.
An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.
Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).
But in this new analysis,
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...
Not sure how this is possible, given the acceleration in greenhouse gas emission in China and neighboring Asian emerging markets industial states.
Unless the "science" was flawed to begin with that is...
“Since 1998, there has been an unexplained “standstill” in the heating of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
One has to love the term “unexplained”. Kind of like “unexpected” we see so often in articles from liberals. Hahahaha.
Holy cow ! You mean all the stuff I stockpiled for global warming now has to be replaced with global cooling provisions?
I smell a conspiracy (and in more ways than one !!)
That's it. I'm suing AlGore.
Just admit it. You had no idea what you were talking about and all theglobal warming crap aws just propoganda.
gw asshat scientists, just shut the hell up. nobody buys your crap anymore,you have zero credibility.
Some of my family members are “true believers” in the climate change bs. They’re also idiots and by idiots I mean they’re liberal-progressives.
A marvelous thing indeed. They can't predict, with any accuracy, what the temperature will be next week but yet know what it will be in 5 years.
me too, we all got ‘em.
Next we’ll be heading for an ice age again. So retro-70s.
Some of my family members are true believers in the climate change bs. Theyre also idiots and by idiots I mean theyre liberal-progressives.
The ones that proudly proclaim themselves “progressives” are the worst. They’re truly disgusting.
So the world slightly warmed for about 10 years, and it’s not warmed for about 14 years, yet global warming is conclusive?
TRANSLATION: "We refuse to allow reality to stand in the way of our totalitarian agenda."
Lo and behold...Children started wearing green shirts to school, and teachers were preaching "global warming, global warming, global warming.
We see the exact same MO with the "Eat what Michelle tells you" or die..
Our children are being attacked!!!
If you listen to NPR you’d believe otherwise.Programmers got globull warming worked into every show including it’s so sad, comedy.
Are those idiots still talking about global warming?
GET A LIFE, PEOPLE!
Enviro-thug lies are a moving target.
JugEars and his EPA still tax us as though it is still real. EPA vampires want to keep their jobs so they need victims
I guess you missed the recent NASA report that proved CO2 is absolutely necessary to protect the Earth by reflecting most of the Sun’s energy back into space. Now that NASA has blown away the CO2 warming theory, you can pick something else to worry about. Did I make your day or what? I know it’s not like you won the lottery but global warming isn’t. Rejoice!
“But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.”
Long term, the sun’s gonna burn out, go supernova, and burn the Earth to a cinder.
But, but, but what about the hockey sticks?
How exactly does the climate slowdown?
“If you listen to NPR youd believe otherwise.Programmers got globull warming worked into every show including its so sad, comedy.”
I was driving through Southern Oregon not long ago and couldn’t pick up anything but NPR, so I braced myself and listened to it for a while.
Every episode, every show, was about global warming or the environment. You’d think the planet was on its death bed thanks to humans.
This “study” is complete drivel and uses the usual modus operandi for climate science: massage data to fit theory and when it can no longer be massaged to fit, then adjust the theory slightly but keep massaging like crazy. At some point in the next decade or two the global temperature will start to significantly decline using the reliable measurements (e.g. satellite). The warmists will add more “man’s fault” aerosols to their models or come up with something new. They may even say “we are lucky that nature is helping us temporarily,...” But it will be over except for the lies (e.g. urban heated thermometers, cooling of past readings, etc)
In the interst of making sure the lurkers know that we've got our facts straight, I will point out that Earth's atmosphere is composed of 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other (0.9% argon, 0.037% carbon dioxide), though at lower the lower altitudes water vapor can make up as much as 5% of total volume. The atmosphere as a whole reflects ultra violet radiation, with CO2 playing only a minor role in that process.
When the northern hemisphere is buried beneath a mile thick sheet of ice all the way down to the Tropic Of Cancer these true believers will explain it away as a temporary unexplained anomaly in the ongoing man-made global warming.
Maybe because of this.....
(PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades. The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age.
and....in December of 1776...some big ice blocks afloat...
Good thread, thanks.
Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming ‘not as likely’
Sounds like some scientists (who is getting Gov grants) way of basically saying...
“It’s getting colder!!”
In the News/Activism forum, on a thread titled Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming ‘not as likely’, aquila48 wrote:
If you listen to NPR youd believe otherwise.Programmers got globull warming worked into every show including its so sad, comedy.
I was driving through Southern Oregon not long ago and couldnt pick up anything but NPR, so I braced myself and listened to it for a while.Every episode and every show was about global warming (snip)
You know I felt like I was the only old fart (’m 81) who was hearing this krap. It would be interesting to see if there was a message of record (email or other directive) that came from on high to push this and I bet there was. But the fun would be to expose it.
State and federal legislators can hold hearings and ask those questions when it comes to defunding...But they have to cite specific questions. In this Sundays case all they need do is review recordings of those broadcasts.
Who gives a damn about the darn weather?? For heavens sake, it’s the weather. Deal with it.
[[Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming ‘not as likely’]]
In other words, the climate is following 1000’s of years worth of cyclical warmign and cooling trends- gee- whoda thunk it?
But once again we see ‘climatologists’ ‘predicting’ a new direction when the wind changes direction and claimign they were right all along - no matter which way the wind blows, these Hindsight ‘scientists’ are covered- it’s all man’s fault-
“How exactly does the climate slowdown?”
It must be like a bad cartridge. The trigger is pulled, but it hasn’t gone bang yet.
Does it fire? Does it eventually fire, but only go an inch down the barrel?
Or does it never fire, and you just throw it away?
” It would be interesting to see if there was a message of record (email or other directive) that came from on high to push this and I bet there was. But the fun would be to expose it.”
I don’t think they need to send messages from on high - they do something even more effective (from their point of view) - they put true believer as announcers and let them do their things. Similar to terrorist cells.
We must be getting close to “Global Cooling” caused by road dust and garden tools.
Turns out that data was very, very, very wrong. US emissions (which make up 90% of N Am pop) are now down to the lowest levels since 1993.
I am sure the media and schools will col it with their propaganda....
That’s incorrect. Based on the NASA report, CO2 plays a much more important part in preventing the Sun from raising temperatures on Earth than previously known The other question is given the greater percentage and effectiveness of water as a so-called greenhouse gas, why have the scammers focused on a relatively insignificant gas, CO2. The answer to that is obvious. CO2 was looked upon as the next best thing for diverting money from the private sector to government. Fortunately the research continued and CO2 has been proven not to be the fearsome planet changing boogey man as was widely promoted.
The slowdown in solar activity kicked in around 2007-8. It is still too early to see much effect from this. As usual there is thermal inertia from the ocean, remaining ocean warmth from the high solar period (up to the 90’s) has been delaying the impact of lower solar activity.
Do you have a link for the NASA report? The focus on CO2 made the models simpler. Considering that they don't model weather, it's hard for them to judge the effects of solar and terrestrial factors on climate. Specifically, if water vapor is evenly distributed (fewer storms and/or weaker storms, stronger polar jet, less meridional flow, etc) then there will be global warming. Conversely having more and stronger storms (worldwide), weak jet with blocking (e.g. causing heat waves or flooding) produces global cooling. None of that can be modeled without modeling the small scale convective processes, and the climate models do not do that (even weather models suck at that). Thus they basically do a large scale energy balance model so things like CO2 get undo emphasis and water vapor is ignored (i.e. they keep constant RH without any justification).