Posted on 11/06/2012 12:49:06 AM PST by Arthurio
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has analyzed the early voter data from Ohio and seems to have concluded that Obama has done horribly in Ohio early voting. We are no longer talking about polls. He has analyzed hard data that was reported today by the Ohio Secretary of State.
Here are some of his tweets. Nate Silver is NOT happy.
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:22am - 6 Nov 12:
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:27am - 6 Nov 12:
By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
Agree. I have never figured out who is the twitter and who is the twitee and what is being said in such posts. I have concluded I do not care. >
I like the country version much better: Conway Twitter.
Just a little levity on election day.
No, he means “in McCain Counties” comparing apples to apples.
I love Twitter, and I think with 30 books and now a movie company I get my work done. The fact is, Titter I now the fastest transmission of info (though certainly not deep analysis) in he world.
Nor does this address indies.
He endorsed MItt Romney and said that in a meeting he had with democrate union memeber (not official) they all said they were flipping over to Romney.I think that the Dem's are about to find out that a lot of those D voters on record will be switching over this time around.
Lunacy. First, R wins the “loyalty gap” of Ds voting for R vs Rs voting for Obama, and second indies and undecided will break for R at some level. Even if only a 1% edge, this adds up to a 3-4% Romney win.
Do we really know what to make of early voting? The last two elections have had ultra-high turnouts, long lines on election day. I voted on election day the past two elections. This time I voted early (in Rockingham County, NC—a not-too populated area). So, add one vote to early voting (for the Repub) AND TAKE AWAY ONE ELECTION DAY VOTE (from the Repub).
My guess is, from the Dems perspective, early voting is all about having more time to tamper with results, get more dead folks out to the polls, have their constituents vote “early and often”, while it (early voting) is more about convenience for Repub voters.
I really, really hope this goes well for us. I would love to toss that at a guy who has been pimping Nate Silver.
I totally agree—their body language said it all, especially when Michelle hugged him and mouthed, “It’s okay.” Most people say ‘it’s okay’ when facing trouble.
I’m shocked the media, which usually picks up body language (remember G.H.W. Bush looking at his watch?), had no mention of it other than to say that the Obamas were emotional because it was their last political appearance. Heck, I would be jumping for joy if that was the case and I was on my way to victory. No more chicken dinners and living on an airplane.
Another thing I noticed is the two daughters are not anywhere to be seen. I realize they want to protect them and the girls have their own lives with school and their routines, but you would think for historical purposes they would want their daughters to witness their father’s last political victory. I think they are protecting them from a possible loss and want to prepare them for what’s ahead without media attention.
The slimey John Heilman was just on Morning Joe saying the same thing about the Romneys in Ohio. Said they must have seen their internals.
I really, really doubt this number. I think the 21.3% are really for Palin. /sarc>
Cheers!
Wasserman still predicts Obama wins Ohio...just not by the large amount that Silverman predicts.
And what doesn't show up in these numbers is the fact that the 'rats have been pushing their high probability voters to vote early, meaning they're going to have a harder time drumming up turnout today.
And after tonight he should do the honorable thing and jump off the top the NY Slimes Building. Or down an elevator shaft, either works for me.
I never heard of Nate Silver until about two weeks ago. Who is this guy?
“Another thing I noticed is the two daughters are not anywhere to be seen.”
Obama’s running on his “white half” in the swing states; I said a month ago we wouldn’t see him playing basketball until the election, and it was true. His family is hidden, though the wife is trotted out to encourage the base; haven’t heard about any of her “fashion tips” lately, have you?
I don’t know where I got this number, but I saw a 5.3% lead in early votes for ZEro using SoS number of 28% of Ohioans voted early. If that’s true, based on 08, that would come out to about 80k votes to beat on election day. No problemo. Still trying to figure out where I saw this 5.3 figure. Now, that does not address D to R crossovers or Indies.
Sort of. Just this past Sat afternoon. Leaving a Church after a Wedding in an area I was unfamiliar with. All overcast, no shadows, no reference from the sun (and no map-duh). Turned wrong way at an intersection, wound up going East, wanted to go West. But after a couple hundred feet of going East I realized my error (going that way didn't 'feel right') and made a turn-around.
Was I pissed at myself. I don't 'get lost'.
Don't pass on twitter. It's the fastest way to get news now. Check it out tonight when you're frustrated that FR won't load fast enough.
“If you get 3.5 voters you win”
You’re right of course. I can’t keep the fraud factor out of my head.
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