I don’t know where I got this number, but I saw a 5.3% lead in early votes for ZEro using SoS number of 28% of Ohioans voted early. If that’s true, based on 08, that would come out to about 80k votes to beat on election day. No problemo. Still trying to figure out where I saw this 5.3 figure. Now, that does not address D to R crossovers or Indies.
Rove had it at -75K so far for Romney on O’Reilly last night, so close to your number.