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Ohio: "we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08"
Dave Wasseeman, Cook Political Report ^ | 11-6

Posted on 11/06/2012 12:49:06 AM PST by Arthurio

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has analyzed the early voter data from Ohio and seems to have concluded that Obama has done horribly in Ohio early voting. We are no longer talking about polls. He has analyzed hard data that was reported today by the Ohio Secretary of State.

Here are some of his tweets. Nate Silver is NOT happy.

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:22am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:27am - 6 Nov 12:

By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: ohio; twitter
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1 posted on 11/06/2012 12:49:10 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Nate Silver’s unhappiness is only just beginning.....


2 posted on 11/06/2012 12:56:18 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

This tweet is a rare exception to the rule this year:

Charlie Cook’s website has been just awful this election cycle—totally useless MSM drivel.

The guy used to know his stuff—maybe those DC cocktail parties have rotted his brain.


3 posted on 11/06/2012 12:59:16 AM PST by cgbg (Crying MSNBC lefties on election night=Victory!)
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To: Arthurio

So, in 2008, Obama’s OH counties had that 5.7% early vote edge, which has now been reduced to .4%, a swing of -5.3%. This, in a state Obama won by 4.6%. Sounds like good news to me!


4 posted on 11/06/2012 12:59:22 AM PST by arista
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To: C. Edmund Wright

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com LOL


5 posted on 11/06/2012 12:59:35 AM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
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To: Arthurio

If you go by body language Obama & wife looked wrecked tonight in Iowa. Also....Obama is taking tomorrow off to play basketball while Mitt hits the road....WTH ?! This is only a guess on my part, but perhaps Obama was told this weekend it’s over.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 1:00:59 AM PST by LongWayHome
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Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)


7 posted on 11/06/2012 1:01:22 AM PST by Arthurio
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Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)


8 posted on 11/06/2012 1:03:22 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

From this thread(http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php?t=336249&s=3c176108b04b9910bf7e5bb85c94af88&p=3601324#post3601324):

Leaked Data points to poor Democratic voter turnout in Ohio during early voting.

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Data suggests a much narrower Dem early vote/enthusiasm advantage than in ‘08, all pointing to a photo finish (in Ohio) about an hour ago

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Clear from this data that we are headed for a less Obama-favorable turnout model than ‘08, but far from clear who will win OH 18 minutes ago

Dave WassermanNot sure if @fivethirtyeight took down tweet. But to argue this data suggests only a 0.9% decline in Obama margin seems a little dismissive. 8 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama’s 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. ‘08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%: https://t.co/iYyATGQf 20 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: Data suggests to win, Obama has to do more on E-Day to get out his target vote than in ‘08 https://t.co/iYyATGQf 57 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Early turnout more than doubled in Richland and Wayne (both strong R counties), presumably b/c of Husted’s uniform rules about an hour ago


9 posted on 11/06/2012 1:07:19 AM PST by FreedomForce (Lesser Evil 2012)
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To: LongWayHome

Just the “thought” that America would re-elect him tells me it’s time to prepare for WWIII.


10 posted on 11/06/2012 1:07:43 AM PST by liberty or death
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To: C. Edmund Wright

Well this is an encouraging bit of news!


11 posted on 11/06/2012 1:10:48 AM PST by Dave Mellon (Dave Mellon aka Ben Ghazi Gates)
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom

Oh thanks for that. Add this (under construction, but you’ll get the idea)
www.gone2012book.com


12 posted on 11/06/2012 1:13:43 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: Arthurio
Ever been lost on a one lane blacktop in the fog in the middle of the night, trying to get your bearings, believing you're headed south and suddenly realizing you're heading north?

In an instant, you have to turn the entire world around...

... 3 AM, EST, Nov 6th 2012. So it begins.

13 posted on 11/06/2012 1:14:44 AM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: liberty or death

The demographics are changing....and not in favor of the GOP I’m afraid. 25 years ago Obama would lose this thing by 10 points.


14 posted on 11/06/2012 1:16:52 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: FredZarguna

Looks like some history in the happening here:)


15 posted on 11/06/2012 1:18:22 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: Arthurio
This copy / paste crap from twitter is unintelligible.

A fad for folks who should be paying more attention to working or driving than doing thumb pushups.

16 posted on 11/06/2012 1:22:19 AM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: Arthurio
my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

Why is McCain mentioned TWICE above? Shouldn't the second McCain really say Romney?

17 posted on 11/06/2012 1:24:29 AM PST by library user
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To: library user

I think that means McCain’s districts, the ones he carried in 08....but yes, those would be assumed Romney votes now...


18 posted on 11/06/2012 1:26:44 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: library user

I think he’s just referencing the counties McCain fared well in on tbe assumption that Romney will do well in the same counties.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 1:28:09 AM PST by FreedomForce (Lesser Evil 2012)
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To: FreedomForce

also they seem to assume all those early dem votes are for Obama.......i would not assume that at all.


20 posted on 11/06/2012 1:29:20 AM PST by sunmars
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To: tomkat
"This copy / paste crap from twitter is unintelligible."

Agree. I have never figured out who is the twitter and who is the twitee and what is being said in such posts. I have concluded I do not care.
21 posted on 11/06/2012 1:29:33 AM PST by TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
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To: Arthurio
"In Obama’s 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. ‘08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%"

If that means anything it means something powerful.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 1:32:16 AM PST by I see my hands (They should have prepared.)
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To: library user

No, he’s comparing 2012 to the counties McCain won in 2008.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 1:34:26 AM PST by cdga5for4
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To: Arthurio

Wasserman tweeted that he still thinks Obama will win Ohio. I’m thinking Romney is going to squeak by there. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 1:47:38 AM PST by FreedomForce (Lesser Evil 2012)
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To: LongWayHome

Note that Romney is bout 15 years older than Obama, yet appears healthy and well-rested.


25 posted on 11/06/2012 1:51:37 AM PST by PghBaldy
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To: Arthurio
But he still says Obama wins Ohio - https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/265743998365343745
Nah, I still think Obama wins OH, just not by the 3.8% margin"

26 posted on 11/06/2012 1:52:18 AM PST by freeboy70
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To: FreedomForce

Wasserman & Silver look to be grasping at straws....not quite believing what they are seeing if I read this right ?


27 posted on 11/06/2012 1:53:56 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: PghBaldy

Lol, good clean living Mitt:)


28 posted on 11/06/2012 1:56:06 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: liberty or death

“Just the ‘thought’ that America would re-elect him tells me it’s time to prepare for WWIII.”

The GOP candidate needs to turn only about 6 of 100 voters from 2008. Given the very poor condition of the economy and our status in the world, and nothing but a greater recession and a more dangerous world ahead, an above average candidate like Romney would be ahead by 15 points in any other year in American history.

We have arrived at the point where we deserve who we vote for.


29 posted on 11/06/2012 1:57:39 AM PST by ReaganGeneration2
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To: TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl

who is the twitter and who is the twitee..”

Doesn’t matter. They are for sure both twits.

According to the Urban Dictionary, a twit is the kind of person that makes a retarded chimp look smart.


30 posted on 11/06/2012 1:57:46 AM PST by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Arthurio. Today we feed the Obama Era into a live wood chipper.


31 posted on 11/06/2012 1:57:58 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: PghBaldy

Yeah, being lazy and a drug addict will do that to ya.


32 posted on 11/06/2012 2:01:12 AM PST by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: Arthurio

The 2008 model with those 2012 early voting data would yield a 2% statewide victory for Romney today.

Old model. New data. Incomplete. But that’s the story.


33 posted on 11/06/2012 2:02:29 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: LongWayHome

Liberals on twitter are beginning to tear into one another about this. Some seem to recognize how serious this is, others in denial.


34 posted on 11/06/2012 2:03:16 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: PghBaldy

I would suspect his healthy appearance is largely due to his clean living, peace with himself and a wife who really loves, likes and cares for him. He also looks a whole lot better in jeans than BO does.


35 posted on 11/06/2012 2:05:36 AM PST by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Arthurio

Yup...and notice how Wasserman was in a near panic then backed off quick. They lose Ohio if GOP GOTV matches these figures today.


36 posted on 11/06/2012 2:11:30 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: ADemocratNoMore; Akron Al; arbee4bush; agrace; ATOMIC_PUNK; Badeye; Bikers4Bush; BlindedByTruth; ...

Ohio Ping!
To be added to the Ohio Ping List, please freepmail,
(the three of us) Flutters, Whenifhow, and LasVegasDave.


37 posted on 11/06/2012 2:14:25 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave (".....We must stand together and defeat O'bozo, vote him out today !! ....")
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To: ADemocratNoMore; Akron Al; arbee4bush; agrace; ATOMIC_PUNK; Badeye; Bikers4Bush; BlindedByTruth; ...

Ohio Ping!
To be added to the Ohio Ping List, please freepmail,
(the three of us) Flutters, Whenifhow, and LasVegasDave.


38 posted on 11/06/2012 2:15:26 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave (".....We must stand together and defeat O'bozo, vote him out today !! ....")
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To: PghBaldy
"Note that Romney is bout 15 years older than Obama, yet appears healthy and well-rested."

Like Jackie Gleason v. Paul Newman in The Hustler.
39 posted on 11/06/2012 2:16:15 AM PST by TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
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To: ReaganGeneration2

No. Just turn 3.5 voters

The President won D:53 R: 47

If you get 3.5 voters on your side you win D:49.5 -
R:50.5


40 posted on 11/06/2012 3:31:17 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
"This copy / paste crap from twitter is unintelligible."

Agree. I have never figured out who is the twitter and who is the twitee and what is being said in such posts. I have concluded I do not care. >

I like the country version much better: Conway Twitter.

Just a little levity on election day.

41 posted on 11/06/2012 3:39:17 AM PST by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
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To: library user

No, he means “in McCain Counties” comparing apples to apples.


42 posted on 11/06/2012 3:40:53 AM PST by LS
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To: tomkat

I love Twitter, and I think with 30 books and now a movie company I get my work done. The fact is, Titter I now the fastest transmission of info (though certainly not deep analysis) in he world.


43 posted on 11/06/2012 3:43:42 AM PST by LS
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To: sunmars

Nor does this address indies.


44 posted on 11/06/2012 3:44:35 AM PST by LS
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To: Arthurio
I was listening to EWTN last night. They had Pat Buchanan on along with the past ambassador to the Vatican J.Flynn (a Democrate).

He endorsed MItt Romney and said that in a meeting he had with democrate union memeber (not official) they all said they were flipping over to Romney.I think that the Dem's are about to find out that a lot of those D voters on record will be switching over this time around.

45 posted on 11/06/2012 3:46:20 AM PST by mware (By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West)
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To: freeboy70

Lunacy. First, R wins the “loyalty gap” of Ds voting for R vs Rs voting for Obama, and second indies and undecided will break for R at some level. Even if only a 1% edge, this adds up to a 3-4% Romney win.


46 posted on 11/06/2012 3:47:22 AM PST by LS
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To: Arthurio

Do we really know what to make of early voting? The last two elections have had ultra-high turnouts, long lines on election day. I voted on election day the past two elections. This time I voted early (in Rockingham County, NC—a not-too populated area). So, add one vote to early voting (for the Repub) AND TAKE AWAY ONE ELECTION DAY VOTE (from the Repub).

My guess is, from the Dems perspective, early voting is all about having more time to tamper with results, get more dead folks out to the polls, have their constituents vote “early and often”, while it (early voting) is more about convenience for Repub voters.


47 posted on 11/06/2012 3:59:05 AM PST by MarDav
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom

I really, really hope this goes well for us. I would love to toss that at a guy who has been pimping Nate Silver.


48 posted on 11/06/2012 4:02:47 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est.)
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To: LongWayHome

I totally agree—their body language said it all, especially when Michelle hugged him and mouthed, “It’s okay.” Most people say ‘it’s okay’ when facing trouble.

I’m shocked the media, which usually picks up body language (remember G.H.W. Bush looking at his watch?), had no mention of it other than to say that the Obamas were emotional because it was their last political appearance. Heck, I would be jumping for joy if that was the case and I was on my way to victory. No more chicken dinners and living on an airplane.

Another thing I noticed is the two daughters are not anywhere to be seen. I realize they want to protect them and the girls have their own lives with school and their routines, but you would think for historical purposes they would want their daughters to witness their father’s last political victory. I think they are protecting them from a possible loss and want to prepare them for what’s ahead without media attention.


49 posted on 11/06/2012 4:08:50 AM PST by dupree
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To: LongWayHome

The slimey John Heilman was just on Morning Joe saying the same thing about the Romneys in Ohio. Said they must have seen their internals.


50 posted on 11/06/2012 4:15:15 AM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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