Posted on 11/05/2012 9:47:41 PM PST by Steelfish
What To Watch For As Ohio Counts Votes
Rosalind S. Helderman November 5
For all the expectations about a late and possibly nail-biting night Tuesday, one key question about the presidential election should be clear early in the evening: just how well President Obama performed among early voters in the swing state of Ohio.
Polls in the Buckeye State will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, and the Ohio secretary of state’s office said counties are prepared to quickly post tallies from absentee and in-person early voting. A spokesman said those numbers should be available as early as 7:45 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Three things to know about Ohio: The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza profiles the battleground state that everyone is watching as Election Day approaches.
What does that mean for those following at home?
Public polling leading up to Election Day has indicated that early voters in Ohio broke for Obama by large margins. That means we should expect the president to take an early and potentially sizable lead in the all-important battleground when the early-vote tally is posted.
The question will be just how far ahead Obama is as county election boards begin to post results from Election Day. Those returns are expected to favor Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
(If Romney is ahead after early votes are posted — or if the two are very close — there’s a good chance that Romney will win the state and its 18 electoral votes.)
Another key number to watch in Ohio is how many provisional ballots have been cast in a state that has experienced major legal wrangling over voting rules.
There were 150,000 such provisional ballots cast in 2008. There could be at least that many this year — including those cast by voters who requested ....
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
As long as Romney is within 10, he stands a good chance.
If Obama leads by 20+ as some surveys suggest, it is going to be a long night.
feel much better now for Romney.. thanks
Do the surveys of early/absentee votes have the same built in sampling bias as the other presidential polls?
Read this analysis on early voting.
This gentleman dug deep into county EV turnout. Roughly, 4% increase over 2008, but down 4% in Dem counties, up 14% in GOP counties. Ohio was won in 2008 by a relatively slim margin.
Ohio is the state that had almost a month of early voting, and complete focus of Obama campaign. If this is what they produced, I feel awfully good about things.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html
“But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”
This is not the first I’ve read this either. Dick Morris has mentioned. I believe there was something at National Review about this too.
“Good If Romney Is Ahead After Early Votes Posted”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Better If Romney Is Ahead After Last Votes Posted
Who knows which way Ohio will go, Romney should win a close fight. One thing is guaranteed in OH, PA, WI and any of the “close” races.. the democrat districts will be the last to send in their totals. They will be waiting to see how many votes they need and try and get to that number before sending in tallies.
Once again we will have to sit and watch what looks like a win maybe turn into a loss. Is the same sh*t every election. Just once I would love to see large republican districts in a state wait until the very end, wait until the democraps have posted all their numbers. Let those pricks watch a lead disappear in the last 30 minutes for once.
apparently the WaPo hasn’t been reading any of the news out of Ohio that Romney leads early voting by something like 52 to 47.....BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I read that the GOP had matched the Democrat EV and had virtually wiped out the 260,000 advantage they had last election.
I read elsewhere that yesterday (Sunday) there was a very heavy turnout of Rats in major Democratic counties in OH and then again we are now told that Cuyahoga County turnout wasn’t that high. If the early votes are swamped by Romney ballots on Tuesday, this will sure be a good sign for Romney.
We also have to keep in mind that many of these Democrats may not be voting for Obama.
Remember that the East side of Cleveland has a large Orthodox Jewish population, which tend to vote conservative. Hopefully we can get out a big turnout. I know my Hasidic aunt who lives there can't vote for Romney fast enough. Last few times we visited there, you would think that Obama was Kenyan for "Haman".
I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008
In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012
If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.
I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008
In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012
If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.
I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008
In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012
If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.
As long as Romney is within 10, he stands a good chance.
If Obama leads by 20+ as some surveys suggest, it is going to be a long night.
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What does this mean? Within 10? Within 20?
Just once I would love to see large republican districts in a state wait until the very end, wait until the democraps have posted all their numbers. Let those pricks watch a lead disappear in the last 30 minutes for once.
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Remember WI? They (rep) did exactly as you suggest they should do and will probably do so again.
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