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What To Watch For As Ohio Counts Votes [Good If Romney Is Ahead After Early Votes Posted]
Washington Post ^ | November 05, 2012 | Rosalind S. Helderman

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:47:41 PM PST by Steelfish

What To Watch For As Ohio Counts Votes

Rosalind S. Helderman November 5

For all the expectations about a late and possibly nail-biting night Tuesday, one key question about the presidential election should be clear early in the evening: just how well President Obama performed among early voters in the swing state of Ohio.

Polls in the Buckeye State will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, and the Ohio secretary of state’s office said counties are prepared to quickly post tallies from absentee and in-person early voting. A spokesman said those numbers should be available as early as 7:45 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Three things to know about Ohio: The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza profiles the battleground state that everyone is watching as Election Day approaches.

What does that mean for those following at home?

Public polling leading up to Election Day has indicated that early voters in Ohio broke for Obama by large margins. That means we should expect the president to take an early and potentially sizable lead in the all-important battleground when the early-vote tally is posted.

The question will be just how far ahead Obama is as county election boards begin to post results from Election Day. Those returns are expected to favor Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

(If Romney is ahead after early votes are posted — or if the two are very close — there’s a good chance that Romney will win the state and its 18 electoral votes.)

Another key number to watch in Ohio is how many provisional ballots have been cast in a state that has experienced major legal wrangling over voting rules.

There were 150,000 such provisional ballots cast in 2008. There could be at least that many this year — including those cast by voters who requested ....

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/05/2012 9:47:48 PM PST by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

As long as Romney is within 10, he stands a good chance.

If Obama leads by 20+ as some surveys suggest, it is going to be a long night.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 9:50:19 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish

feel much better now for Romney.. thanks


3 posted on 11/05/2012 9:55:01 PM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: comebacknewt

Do the surveys of early/absentee votes have the same built in sampling bias as the other presidential polls?


4 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:38 PM PST by Ken H
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To: Steelfish

Read this analysis on early voting.

http://twitter.com/Redistrict

This gentleman dug deep into county EV turnout. Roughly, 4% increase over 2008, but down 4% in Dem counties, up 14% in GOP counties. Ohio was won in 2008 by a relatively slim margin.

Ohio is the state that had almost a month of early voting, and complete focus of Obama campaign. If this is what they produced, I feel awfully good about things.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 10:06:18 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Steelfish

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html

“But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”

This is not the first I’ve read this either. Dick Morris has mentioned. I believe there was something at National Review about this too.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 10:06:53 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Steelfish

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/27/Obama-s-Ohio-Early-Voting-Totals-Are-A-Sham


7 posted on 11/05/2012 10:08:21 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Steelfish

“Good If Romney Is Ahead After Early Votes Posted”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Better If Romney Is Ahead After Last Votes Posted


8 posted on 11/05/2012 10:09:23 PM PST by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Steelfish

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331682/romney-camp-were-winning-early-vote-count-ohio-katrina-trinko#


9 posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:35 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Steelfish

Who knows which way Ohio will go, Romney should win a close fight. One thing is guaranteed in OH, PA, WI and any of the “close” races.. the democrat districts will be the last to send in their totals. They will be waiting to see how many votes they need and try and get to that number before sending in tallies.

Once again we will have to sit and watch what looks like a win maybe turn into a loss. Is the same sh*t every election. Just once I would love to see large republican districts in a state wait until the very end, wait until the democraps have posted all their numbers. Let those pricks watch a lead disappear in the last 30 minutes for once.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 10:12:44 PM PST by Beatthedrum
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To: Steelfish

apparently the WaPo hasn’t been reading any of the news out of Ohio that Romney leads early voting by something like 52 to 47.....BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA


11 posted on 11/05/2012 10:20:53 PM PST by Nifster
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To: Steelfish

I read that the GOP had matched the Democrat EV and had virtually wiped out the 260,000 advantage they had last election.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 10:36:49 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I read elsewhere that yesterday (Sunday) there was a very heavy turnout of Rats in major Democratic counties in OH and then again we are now told that Cuyahoga County turnout wasn’t that high. If the early votes are swamped by Romney ballots on Tuesday, this will sure be a good sign for Romney.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 10:41:17 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish
Yes, Cuyahoga county is the key.

We also have to keep in mind that many of these Democrats may not be voting for Obama.

14 posted on 11/05/2012 11:13:16 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
We also have to keep in mind that many of these Democrats may not be voting for Obama.

Remember that the East side of Cleveland has a large Orthodox Jewish population, which tend to vote conservative. Hopefully we can get out a big turnout. I know my Hasidic aunt who lives there can't vote for Romney fast enough. Last few times we visited there, you would think that Obama was Kenyan for "Haman".

15 posted on 11/05/2012 11:21:53 PM PST by ssaftler (Romney: "Attacking me is not an agenda for the future")
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To: ssaftler

I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008

In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012

If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 11:55:58 PM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("We have boats that carry planes and other boats that go underwater")
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To: ssaftler

I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008

In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012

If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 11:56:43 PM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("We have boats that carry planes and other boats that go underwater")
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To: ssaftler

I believe Obama won Ohio by 3.9% in 2008

In every other swing state he won in 2008, he is either now behind or his lead is down by approx. 33-50% in 2012

If those values are valid in Ohio, Romney should win Ohio and the Presidency.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 11:57:06 PM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("We have boats that carry planes and other boats that go underwater")
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To: comebacknewt

As long as Romney is within 10, he stands a good chance.

If Obama leads by 20+ as some surveys suggest, it is going to be a long night.
***********************************************************

What does this mean? Within 10? Within 20?


19 posted on 11/06/2012 2:29:11 AM PST by Lacey2
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To: Beatthedrum

Just once I would love to see large republican districts in a state wait until the very end, wait until the democraps have posted all their numbers. Let those pricks watch a lead disappear in the last 30 minutes for once.
***********************************************************

Remember WI? They (rep) did exactly as you suggest they should do and will probably do so again.


20 posted on 11/06/2012 2:32:20 AM PST by Lacey2
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To: Steelfish

Trollfish, Romney will not be ahead after early vote. He just has to be within 50,000 and Romney wins by 3-4.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 3:52:15 AM PST by LS
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To: LS

I read that the early vote favored Romney...Good omen!


22 posted on 11/06/2012 4:40:37 AM PST by DaveA37
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To: Progov

Source? I don’t buy that. We just have to not be down much.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 5:15:14 AM PST by LS
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To: Steelfish

This is when the media will (unofficially) declare Obama the winner- when he merely leads in Ohio early voting.

Ohio is going to be very close though.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 5:20:47 AM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Ohio Early Vote Update


25 posted on 11/06/2012 5:23:25 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Lacey2

The early vote numbers from Ohio.

They will be posted immediately. The election day results won’t start trickling in until later.

If Obama leads the early vote by over 20 points, then I believe he will likely win the state.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 6:40:47 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Perdogg
Thought you might find this humorous.......

There are going to be a lot of registered Democrats in Cuyahoga county serving up a big surprise for Obozo this evening by voting for Romney.......

My brother registered himself as a Democrat this time in the primary so he could vote Kucinich out and the other incumbent Democrat fighting for the seat would win .........

He was not the only republican to do this, several of his friends did the same in Cuyahoga County.

My brother has been polled by CNN, Columbus Dispatch, and some other big dem polling outlet.....he told them all he was voting for Obozo.......then Yesterday he walked his Absentee ballot into the vote poll,........it was a vote for Romney.

27 posted on 11/06/2012 9:08:13 AM PST by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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