Skip to comments.NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%
Posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.
Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.
Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
How was your followup reading session?
No hooting laughter, that's for sure. Don'tcha hate it when the "bad guys" are right?
Now I have to get me a gub'mint job, to break the regime from the inside! < /sarc >
Oh, and to add insult to injury, the pub lost power and was closed by the time we finished election duty! A beer at home just ain’t the same!
Now that hurts.
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