Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%
Business Insider ^ | 11/05/2012 | Henry Blodget

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-54 next last

1 posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Right to the end, Silver is going down in epic flames and taking his DU’ers with him. LoL.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 9:21:36 AM PST by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
I detest whoever runs that Business Insider. I tell him off at least once a week.

I stepped outside of my conservative bubble briefly last night. I had no idea the lefties were so convinced they were going to win too. Not being an Eeyore, but I was a little unnerved by it.

Then I went over to Breitbart's and they were there in all there true to form vileness. I figured if they were so sure they were winning why would they be trolling at Breitbarts?

3 posted on 11/05/2012 9:26:15 AM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

LOL!

Nate Silver’s confidence depends on an accurate reading of the 9% of the voting public who have been polled.

It says nothing about the 90% who have NOT been contacted and whose voting intentions remain unknown.

That’s a big leap to take and the pollsters are not even going that far!


4 posted on 11/05/2012 9:28:59 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

My understanding is that all Silver does is compile polls that heavily oversample Democrats.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 9:30:25 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

When Romney is declared the winner tomorrow night the first thing I’m going to post on my Facebook page for all my liberal “friends” is “Nate Silver needs to send out his resume.”


6 posted on 11/05/2012 9:32:59 AM PST by BlueStateRightist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel

...”and if he doesn’t win you’ll all know you got SCROOOOOOOOD by Redneck Tea Party RACISTS and Diebold voting machines...”


7 posted on 11/05/2012 9:39:34 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Here's Captain Cherry Pick on the Rachel Maddow show.

8 posted on 11/05/2012 9:42:39 AM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

close- he cherrypicks polls that figure in on his agenda....he’s gone out of his way to berate Rasmussen’s polls in the past even though the facts were on Rasmussen’s side:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/blast-from-rasmussen-past.html


9 posted on 11/05/2012 9:42:46 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 9:43:24 AM PST by RIRed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BlueStateRightist

better yet- leave a post on his twitter page....


11 posted on 11/05/2012 9:45:15 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

Yep. Garbage in, garbage out.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 9:45:52 AM PST by RedWhiteBlue (Mama tried)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: RIRed
No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
Silver isn't a pollster, he is an oddsmaker. Basically a political bookie. But i think you are right, he sees the numbers but not the influences of them. A bit of not being able to see the forest through all the trees...
13 posted on 11/05/2012 9:49:54 AM PST by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Good grief. What an incredible degree of self-delusion, which is what I think it is. I don’t think he is lying, so much as he is a rabid believer in the Communist cause.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 9:52:42 AM PST by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Aw man, really? 86% chance Obama will win? Jeez. I mean that’s a lot. I was gonna vote for Romney and stuff but if there’s only a 14% he’ll win, I mean, what’s the point? There’s gonna be long lines and waiting. And who knows what the weather might do. I’m so depressed. I guess I’ll just stay at home and watch TV.

NOT!

Does this guy think everyone is stupid? I saw people stand in line at Chick-fil-A for a couple of hours to buy a damn sandwich! Are all those people going to vote for Obama?

Obama shows up somewhere and 4000 people come out to see him. Meanwhile, Romney shows up at a rally and almost 30,000 people come to see him! Are those people going to vote for Obama, too?

According to this guy we should just skip the election altogether and name Obama “President for Life.”

I don’t think so.
Short of me ending up in the hospital for some reason I’m voting tomorrow.
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote. I should get to the polling station around 5:15 if I’m lucky. Then I’ll stand in line. I don’t care if I stand there until after 8. I’m voting! And nothing this ding-dong says will change that!

(And I ain’t a votin’ fer Obama!(spit))


15 posted on 11/05/2012 9:54:25 AM PST by servo1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America; All

Posted the story the other day. Turns out his crazily accurate predictions in 2008 were because Obama’s campaign was feeding him their internal polling info. They signed a confidentiality agreement. TOTAL FRAUD!


16 posted on 11/05/2012 9:55:13 AM PST by TigerClaws
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The primary objective of his Kool-Aid is to convince Dems that all is not lost, and they should still go to the polls.

The consequence will be that if Romney wins, there will be cries of there being an election-stealing conspiracy, leading to violence.

17 posted on 11/05/2012 9:55:34 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he

started a Swing State prediction contest.

Link here:

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1190165&page=0&f

part=all&vc=1

He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.

The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.

Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he

certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator

or numbers cruncher.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 9:58:19 AM PST by ChronicMA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: servo1969
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote.

I'm going to be at the poll when it opens (6:30 am in PA) and vote then. I hope to avoid the worst of the lines that way.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 9:58:51 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: riri

My daughter uses Facebook for business purposes and she showed me a sample of the angry posts from liberals today declaring that Romney is going down, big time. Many say that Romney shouldn’t bother to continue to campaign. ???

If Obama supporters are confident that O has it in the bag, why are they so angry?


20 posted on 11/05/2012 10:03:03 AM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; All
By his own past assertion below which I agree with as do many actual political experts like Barone, Obama is screwed and the failed baseball statistics liberal is quite wrong on who will win. "In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case. – Nate Silver, November 5, 2009
21 posted on 11/05/2012 10:05:26 AM PST by Names Ash Housewares ( Refusing to kneel before the "messiah".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Intrade is a NOT a poll of who will win, it is a measure of how many people put money on one side or the other

Usually that is a good indicator, but Obama voters are pretty stupid

If I could I would put $2K on Romney on Intrade TODAY


22 posted on 11/05/2012 10:06:25 AM PST by Mr. K (What The World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
There is a two word term utilized in statistical and scientific circles which describes Silver's 'methodology': Confirmation Bias.

The largest problem with his model is that it relies entirely upon data provided by third party polling firms which he then weights and injects a turnout prediction. He neither has control over the methodology utilized by the third party polling firms nor does he objectively evaluate the turnout percentages. Tomorrow, it is quite realistic that turnout will be R +3 to +5.

DU'ers hang their hats on Silver and proclaim that he is the only one who called it right in 2008. Well, we shall see about their golden boy. I'm going on record as stating that I know as a fact his methodology is flawed and he needs to go back to analyzing baseball stats.

23 posted on 11/05/2012 10:09:15 AM PST by RobertClark (Inside every "older" person is a younger person wondering what the hell happened?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RIRed
The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.

I agree. It's such a cop-out on his part.

When Romney wins, critics can't enumerate exactly how much Silver was wrong by. They can't say "he missed the mark by 14 percentage points or 110 electoral votes."

With his lame method of prediction, he'll just say, "Well, I did say there was a 14% chance Romney would win, so I wasn't wrong."

He's a gutless little ferret.

24 posted on 11/05/2012 10:13:39 AM PST by dead (It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

has anyone thought to send this doofus a case of duct tape for late Tuesday night application????


25 posted on 11/05/2012 10:14:34 AM PST by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

link?


26 posted on 11/05/2012 10:14:48 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel
The list of those who deserve a heaping helping of schadenfreude is a long one.
27 posted on 11/05/2012 10:17:28 AM PST by JPG (Make it happen)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

28 posted on 11/05/2012 10:20:24 AM PST by x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mr. K

The ideal betting situation for bookies is 50%/50%...This is because the bookie requires 10% “vigorish” from a losing bet.

It seems they are showing that Obama should win by 80%/20%...What this shows me is they are trying to get MORE Obama bets by claiming his victory margin...The betting may actually be running higher for Romney than Obama and the bookies are trying to even things up...


29 posted on 11/05/2012 10:20:28 AM PST by Boonie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I think these over-weighted polls are intended to intimidate establishment GOP elites into not complaining about RAT vote fraud.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 10:24:37 AM PST by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius (170 BC - 86 BC))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

31 posted on 11/05/2012 10:26:35 AM PST by x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Obama did not even have that high of a reelection probability the day after the won the presidency. Maybe a 60-70 % chance of reelection the day after he won the election. That was Obama’s peak 4 years ago and it has been nothing but downhill since then.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 10:28:33 AM PST by justa-hairyape
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ChronicMA

I guess he wasn’t that good at poker either.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 10:29:23 AM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Bttt


34 posted on 11/05/2012 10:29:34 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Ironically, I have a “model” that predicts an 86% chance that Nate Silver will be unemployed and humiliated within the next 48 hours.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 10:30:39 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I sure as hell hope he is wrong. with the polls all over the place and being so close :(

Someone is going to look really stupid Wednesday, I sure hope its not us.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 10:48:21 AM PST by wyowolf
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: servo1969

And we all should visit Chick Fil A tomorrow, too! On election day, let’s make another show of how much we support those who believe in free speech and religious freedom!

A CFA platter of nuggets would be a great item to take to an election eve party!


37 posted on 11/05/2012 10:56:10 AM PST by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Democrats see reality through the prism of their delusions.


38 posted on 11/05/2012 11:08:40 AM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; All

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory


39 posted on 11/05/2012 11:10:51 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Bama’s friends, like Soros and legions from Wall Street are bidding this up.


40 posted on 11/05/2012 11:16:36 AM PST by Wuli
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wyowolf
The problem with applying the same mathematical methodology that one uses to make predictions in baseball to predict elections is that they are based on completely different types of data sets.

In baseball you have hard statistics, based on a player's past performance. If the statistics state that a player reached base 30% of at bats, that's what it is. It's not 30% with a margin of error of 3%, or 30% when the model uses 41% Red Sox fans vs. 30% Rangers fans. It's 30%, period.

Polling, on the other hand, always has a margin of error, and depends heavily on the models used in the particular polls being evaluated.

In short, there is significantly more variability and vagary in the input data for political mathematical prognostication than in prognostication in baseball.

If it were that straightforward, and like calculating loads on a bridge, they could just come up with the equivalent of Turbo Tax that would automatically input the polling data from each organization and spit out the likely winner. No need for commentators or prognosticators - just the ‘Turbo Election’ program.

It's not that simple.

41 posted on 11/05/2012 11:20:01 AM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: RIRed
Nate Silver fails to take into account the Bradley effect.
42 posted on 11/05/2012 11:29:02 AM PST by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: riri

I got a little shaken up by the info I was reading too when I deliberately stepped out of my perspectival ‘bubble’ for a bit—but it did give me better understanding of why Obama is up so much on Intrade and what not.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 11:30:28 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
New York Times polling guru Nate Silver

Does he get to keep his "guru" status when he is proven to be oh so wrong?

44 posted on 11/05/2012 11:34:13 AM PST by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: hattend

In poker, when you’re gonna lose your ass anyway, might as well go “all in”.


45 posted on 11/05/2012 11:51:40 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: hattend
Does he get to keep his "guru" status when he is proven to be oh so wrong?

They keep Krugman and Dowd around, don't they?

46 posted on 11/05/2012 11:52:34 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Here’s my take on these polls.

We’re looking at human nature at work: 2008 obama voters don’t want to admit obama is the wrong choice to pollsters, because that means the voters were wrong and who wants to admit that? And so we don’t see the huge decline of obama in the polls. However, that’s going to change tomorrow in the voting booth where there are no pollsters. It’ll then be a choice not about saving face but of voting between obama and Romney.

Best thing to do to convince a fence sitter to vote for Romney is to simply say: “It’s okay to vote for Romney, he’ll be a good president.” And don’t even get into obama’s record.


47 posted on 11/05/2012 12:15:04 PM PST by gotribe (He's a mack-daddy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV415yit7Zg)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Bookmarked, for a session of hooting laughter on Wednesday morning (Working the polls tomorrow, pub thereafter).


48 posted on 11/05/2012 12:40:36 PM PST by JimRed (Excise the cancer before it kills us; feed &water the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW & FOREVER!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Boonie

I think you got your analysis backwards I think- they are trying to attract more money to the Romney side by offering a higher payoff

which means there is a lot of money on Obama’s side- but Intrade is not allowed to trade in USA and overseas they are excited about an obama 2nd term - they love hime way more than we do


49 posted on 11/05/2012 6:38:29 PM PST by Mr. K (What The World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Now it’s up to 92.2 percent. This is just getting sad.


50 posted on 11/05/2012 8:43:25 PM PST by Kleon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-54 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson