Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Poll: Swing-state voters split 48-48 GALLUP
The Hill ^ | 11-4-12 | Meghashyam Mali

Posted on 11/05/2012 12:40:01 AM PST by Anti-Hillary

Voters in swing states are evenly split between President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new poll from USA Today and Gallup.

The poll, released late Sunday, finds 48 percent of likely voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds backing Obama and 48 percent preferring Romney.

The numbers show a 4-point bounce for Obama from the last USA Today/Gallup poll of swing states in early October, taken days after a disappointing first debate for the president.

Obama also leads by 4 points among registered voters, at 50 to 46, which the poll notes is the largest margin and the first time either candidate has hit 50 percent since Romney clinched the GOP nomination in the spring.

The poll shows Obama regaining a strong edge with female voters, who had drifted toward Romney after the first debate, boosting the GOP challenger in national polls. Obama now leads among women by 16 points, while Romney holds a 10-point advantage among men.

RELATED ARTICLES •Poll: Romney up 6 in Florida

But Romney leads among independent voters by 1 point and holds an edge on the economy, which voters say is the most important issue this election.

Voters pick Romney over Obama on who is best prepared to manage the economy by 3 percentage points and hand Romney a 10-point edge on dealing with the federal deficit.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/05/2012 12:40:12 AM PST by Anti-Hillary
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Obama also leads by 4 points among registered voters, at 50 to 46, which the poll notes is the largest margin and the first time either candidate has hit 50 percent since Romney clinched the GOP nomination in the spring.

/
/

Thats not right. Gallup had Romney at 50 or 51 before they halted doing polling after Sandy last week.

Anyway, I’m tired of being told all the polls are wrong and it’s not close or tied. CLEARLY this is a close race. NOT ONE POLL is showing Mitt winning NOT ONE.

I’m gonna vote and see what happens. It’ll be interesting.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 12:54:22 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary
By comparison, 0 lead McCain by 14 points among women in 2008, but was more or less even among men vs McCain.

It looks like 0 has gained ground in the past few weeks.

This is going to come down to the wire, and all nonsensical talk of landslides (from both sides) will be debunked.

Lets hope our GOTV is superior to theirs, because the trend is not our friend in this poll (Romney has lost women and is no longer up hugely among independents).

His biggest advantage compared to McCain is that he is leading 0 among men by 10 points.

3 posted on 11/05/2012 12:57:16 AM PST by nwrep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Sample is RVs instead of LVs. Were previous swing-state poll samples RVs?


4 posted on 11/05/2012 1:00:15 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Utmost Certainty

Also, no D/R/I breakdown, and taken over 10/27-31. Hmmm...


5 posted on 11/05/2012 1:04:07 AM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

Romney will win.

If you’ve been following the campaign this weekend, what does your gut tell you?

I don’t know all of the stupid people who follow polls like a religion and don’t use the brains God gave them.

Obama cannot get to 50% in all but one of the polls and on the very last day of this election - there is still NO tangible evidence of a lasting Obama bounce. In fact, just the exact opposite!

Now its all coming to down to turnout and what none of the polls have measured is the enormous under current of Republican voter enthusiasm. They are ALL way off - including Gallup! I look forward to Tuesday!


6 posted on 11/05/2012 1:12:23 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Obama also leads by 4 points among registered voters, at 50 to 46,

You can't see the 'juice'?

Open your eyes, the polls are being rigged to give Democrats a reason to vote.

7 posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:04 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Romney holds the enthusiasm edge, with 51 percent of Republicans saying they are excited about the race, against 44 percent of Democrats who say likewise.

There is your 7pt REAL difference in the vote-not 'registered' voters.

Stop believing what they want you to believe and do some research.

8 posted on 11/05/2012 1:21:56 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

They always used that though. Everyone yesterday was talking about GALLUP GALLUP GALLUP, and now they’re bad?

Again. Idc I just wanna vote and get all this poll madness behind us.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 1:23:13 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

I know our side is more enthusiastic and that’s a good thing. I get it.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 1:24:59 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Either the pollsters of heavily weighted Democrat polls, the liberals and the Europeans are living in a dream world or we are. One way or the other, there will be some serious crashing to reality come tomorrow.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 1:25:38 AM PST by Unam Sanctam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary
All day yesterday on the talking head shows the lying liberal pundits were claiming the 1 or 2 percent points (well within the margins of error) advantage Obama had in the swing state polls guaranteed a Romney defeat...

...now that the perfidious political poll manipulations are finished the polls will finally get honest and either show ties or Romney wins...the MSM are wearing suicide belts on this election.

12 posted on 11/05/2012 1:29:14 AM PST by Happy Rain ("Remember the Benghazi 4")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Also, this is an old poll

The poll was conducted from Oct. 27 to 31

Romney has since regained momenturm after the storm.

Obama can't break 50% with likely voters and that means he will lose most of the Independent ones.

13 posted on 11/05/2012 1:30:35 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary
As my tag line says I voted for the White Boy.
If it's OK for Okra And Colonel Colin Powell then it's OK for me.
I voted absentee. . . . . . .
Yes I know he was a General. One of his supporters called Rush a while back and called him Colonel Powell. . . . . .
14 posted on 11/05/2012 1:31:37 AM PST by DeaconRed (Thanks To Colin & Oprah I am voting for the White Boy: Hey they voted for the negro.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Republicans seem to always do better with LIKELY voters rather than REGISTERED voters. Likely voters are more likely to show up and vote.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 1:32:52 AM PST by Silver Sabre
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
It all depends on the internals.

I figured Gallup would pull back from the 50% Romney lead as the election got closer.

But Mike Barone, George Will, and others are seeing the real data and know this election is not going to be close.

16 posted on 11/05/2012 1:33:13 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

Romney’s internal polls must in very good shape - better than what the media is letting on.

You don’t go to Bucks County, PA if you know you’re going to lose. I saw a man who felt great being there - and people who are feeling great - they make a lot of friends.

The greatest advantage Romney has going for him is his confidence and it shows and people react to that. And quite frankly, Americans love winners!

And no PA politician would appear with Romney if they thought he was going to lose.

With human nature, you can tell the alpha male apart from the runt of the litter. And only one of those two guys will win tomorrow. I’m betting it won’t be Obama.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 1:39:29 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Here is why these polls all seem to favor Obama

The public polling has been criticized repeatedly by Republicans for partisan lean, and a WSJ/Marist/NBC poll of Ohio likely voters released late Friday night was no exception. Yet the basic assumptions that Benenson and Newhouse make in their surveys, and where the differences lie, fall less on party weighting, a self-identifying process by people surveyed, than the demographic composition they expect of the electorate.

They think that Obama's voters are coming for him in 2012 like they did in 2008, even though in every demographic there is no enthusiasm for him.

The polls are based on a flawed assumption and are thus being 'juiced' to meet it.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts

They think the white, male vote isn't coming out for Romney, but it is.

18 posted on 11/05/2012 1:45:41 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

Are they seeing seeing real data from Romney’s camp?

Okay that makes me feel better.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 1:53:37 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

” the polls are being rigged to give Democrats a reason to vote.”

It’s all about damage limitation in the congressional vote for the Dems. Watch how long they wait to call this election.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 3:20:56 AM PST by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
But Romney leads among independent voters by 1 point and holds an edge on the economy

C'mon. This is senseless. Romney with independent voters anywhere, battlegrounds, democratic states, Republican states, anywhere leading by 1 point? Please.

21 posted on 11/05/2012 3:26:31 AM PST by johniegrad
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Repost

And it’s a UsAToday poll and not a Gallup poll !


22 posted on 11/05/2012 3:26:39 AM PST by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary
48%-48%, yeah right. All these 'even' polls are over-sampled from from 8%+D to 11%+D (CNN, natch).

But Barry and Axelgrese know the real truth. They're gonna get swamped like a Flash Mob of urban yutes raiding a clothing store on Chicago's Michigan Avenue -- they'll never know what hit them.

That is until they see NH go Red and One EV from Maine. Those 5 little EC votes are the start of the Tsunami!

23 posted on 11/05/2012 4:08:40 AM PST by Condor51 (Si vis pacem, para bellum.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Anyway, I’m tired of being told all the polls are wrong and it’s not close or tied. CLEARLY this is a close race. NOT ONE POLL is showing Mitt winning NOT ONE.

I agree with you and can't help but think that had the primary voters rallied around almost any candidate other than Romney it would not have been close. A conservative running as an unabashed conservative would have this election in the bag ala Reagan.

We will know tomorrow or the next day and then we can quit obsessing on polls.

24 posted on 11/05/2012 4:12:59 AM PST by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

Well said, ftD!

By the way, is anyone here keeping a running tab on all the “concern trolls”? I’d like to have that list so I know who I DON’T ever want leading me into battle.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 4:37:16 AM PST by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Not sure where this particular poll came from, but if you go to the actual Gallup site, they haven’t posted a poll in 5 days. Their first poll will be today at noon eastern. If that rolling poll shows a tie, then start to worry, because Romney had a 5 point lead in the last rolling poll.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 4:37:59 AM PST by The Political genius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
abc/wp has mitt up by one 49-48. NOT ONE SINGLE REPUTABLE POLL SHOWS obama WINNING... NOT ONE. When you add dim+11 yeah... but come on... these same media outlets and their polling firms have all lied to you for the past 4 years. My point... trust your eyes and ears and not professional leftist liars and their minions.

LLS

27 posted on 11/05/2012 4:50:17 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

Gallup has not released a poll since OCT31 and this is NOT a new poll. Later today we will get their last.

LLS


28 posted on 11/05/2012 4:55:17 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

“Anyway, I’m tired of being told all the polls are wrong and it’s not close or tied. CLEARLY this is a close race. NOT ONE POLL is showing Mitt winning NOT ONE.”

Just one more day of having to deal with Obama and these stupid concern trolls.

It’s starting to become harder to figure out which one is more annoying.


29 posted on 11/05/2012 5:02:25 AM PST by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Sorry but I’m not buyin it. This is going to be a blowout. The pollsters will be telling us on Wed how they just didn’t see this Romney landslide coming.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 5:04:29 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration
They think the white, male vote isn't coming out for Romney, but it is.

You mean the people who can't be bothered with a phone poll, or are too busy working to even answer one?

I sure hope you are right. My wife and I have gone back and forth over the question "Who in his right mind would ever bother to talk to a pollster?" I say, that's not the best question. The right question is whether there's some systematic bias in preferences among the people who do.

31 posted on 11/05/2012 5:57:19 AM PST by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: LibLieSlayer

Listen I’m fired up and ready to vote tomorrow. I was going to early vote last week but Sandy started Monday with heavy rain before it came onto Jersey shore. I decided to wait until tomorrow because I have off work Tuesday and Wednesday.

LETS GO!!


32 posted on 11/05/2012 6:49:18 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Shelley Berkley, running for US Senate here in Nevada against Dean Heller just loanded her campaign $250,000 to continue campaigning.

With one day to go- today- she apparently is in financial trouble.

Hopefully, Heller can help Romney get Nevada’s votes.

Clark County is our main problem.....lots of illegals there & lots of voter fraud.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 7:08:03 AM PST by ridesthemiles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

i understand your angst and four years ago people were screaming the polls were wrong when mclame was behind obama but i will tell you this- there’s a completely different attitude this time around....

1) four years ago how many of us on Freep were excited about voting compared to tomorrow??? i was not looking forward to election day in 2008- i feel like a caged animal today and can’t wait for tomorrow...

2) i live in liberalsville, NY- two miles from the clinton’s and one mile from the house RFK Jr just sold...four years ago 8 out of every ten cars had obama bumper stickers on them- now its more like 1 out of every 100...i’ve seen more pro-Romney/anti-obama stickers on cars than pro-obama stickers...i’ve also seen a half dozen Romney yard signs in my area compared to 0 for 0....these people are not being polled...

3) i run/jog every day- at the top of one of the hills is a black family that’s very well off; 5000 sq foot home, 3 car garage, in-ground pool...four years ago they had obama/biden signs all over the property...i ran by today and it dawned on my there’s nothing there for obama/biden this time around...

my stomach gets in knots when i see these polls as well but i look at what’s going on in my uber-liberal neighborhood and could only imagine what its like in places the media wants us to believe is light blue or light red...


34 posted on 11/05/2012 7:54:19 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson