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The man at the heart of Romney's poll questions (Romney's pollster profiled) ^

Posted on 11/05/2012 12:29:30 AM PST by Arthurio

Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's campaign pollster, suddenly finds himself in an unfamiliar place -- out on a limb.

The survey-taker, who helped build Public Opinion Strategies into the largest Republican polling firm and has a solid reputation among operatives and colleagues, is growing increasingly vocal with reporters and Romney supporters in the campaign's closing days about what he sees as examples of flawed public polling, and his sense of the race -- particularly in Ohio -- as basically even.

Newhouse is not known for seeking attention, but through the course of the presidential campaign, his profile has risen. He has been part of some public state-of-the-race calls, and is a frequent fixture on calls and in conversations with Romney surrogates and donors, telling GOP elites in one discussion last week that a Quinnipiac University survey with the New York Times and CBS was "crap." (Newhouse said he didn't recall using that word.)

Having decamped from Washington to Boston to be part of the campaign last year, Newhouse has gotten comparatively less attention than some of Romney's high command, but he's attained more of a public -- and defensive -- posture in the race's last stages than President Barack Obama's pollster Joel Benenson.

On Wednesday, one of the two men will be called a genius, and the other called a goat, based on assumptions they made about turnout models, especially in the crucial state of Ohio.

This is hardly an academic debate over the nuances of polling science. The basic issue is whether Newhouse's internal forecasts and assumptions about the composition of the 2012 electorate are correct versus the ones made by the Obama campaign, which have tended to look more like public polling. If Newhouse is right, the majority of public pollsters will have egg on their faces.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/05/2012 12:29:35 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
Ed Goeas, of the Tarrance Group, agreed, saying, "The difference between [firms like his and POS] and the newspaper polls, public polls, is that if we're wrong we lose clients and we don't get any new clients. If the newspaper polls are wrong, they get another news story about the numbers moving. And so we have to be very specific and very right where actually it serves to [public pollsters'] benefit if in fact they're letting the sample float…

Bears repeating.
2 posted on 11/05/2012 12:49:59 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: Utmost Certainty

If the media polls are wrong, they’ll just say there was a late surge.

3 posted on 11/05/2012 12:52:42 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio; Beckwith; Fred Nerks; LucyT

If the media polls are wrong, they’ll just say there was a late surge.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I disagree, if the media polls are wrong, they will say there was electoral fraud committed by Republican poll organizers.The base is now being laid for extended litigation and battles in one or several swing states, as well as possible rioting and mayhem.This is in fact Obama’s tactic when Obama encounters an electoral loss, this was well illustrated by Obama’s work in Kenya in 2007/2008, when the election there was contested by the Orange Party
by calling supporters out to protest the election, resulting in inter tribal genocide committed by the Muslim Orange party.Obama campaigned for Odinga and advized him.

This is the Obama method of contesting elections. Thats what this false polling is all about. They are getting ready for the post election game plan because they know they are losing.The evidnece of Obama’s pending loss is plain for all to see if they wish to simply look.

4 posted on 11/05/2012 1:06:11 AM PST by Candor7 (Obama fascism article:
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To: Candor7

It won’t be a close election.

It doesn’t feel like they’re two equally competitive campaigns out there.

The turnout model is wrong, the polls are biased towards Democrats and the entire media in the tank for Obama.

We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow. But its stunning that an incumbent cannot get to 50% the final day before the election.

Its just a feeling I have but ALL the polls are way off!

5 posted on 11/05/2012 1:17:53 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

“Some people want to believe we’re living in a world where the electorate is going to have a partisan composition” like 2008, Newhouse told reporters last week on a conference call, citing the current political environment. “That’s a stretch.”

As I understand it, some polls are weighted by the party registration of 2008. They likely discount Operation Chaos. Remember the shock (delight) of the MSM about the increase in number of Republicans changing their registration to Democrat in the 2008 primaries in Pennsylvania. Operation Chaos started around the Mississippi and Texas primaries and continued through Ohio, Pennsylvania, W.Va. Tennessee and Indiana, iirc. Hillary won all but Indiana and that was closer than anyone thought it would be.

Perhaps some people changed back to Republican registration in the general but really there was no need to. Not in 2010 either for most states. I’m guessing most changed back in the primary this year... So basing weight on a poll of registration in 2008 is going to skew at least some ‘toss up states’ like Ohio and Pennsylvania. How much change the weighting causes I don’t know but my guess is that if either are a ‘tie’ then Romney is ahead.

Of course the MSM never acknowledged Operation Chaos but I did some looking into totals in my own district. Our congresswoman, socialist Marcy Kaptur wins by anywhere from mid 60’s to mid 80% every two years. The Dems here love her. But the total of presidential votes in the 2008 primary far out numbered the votes for Kaptur. Anyone voting from the viewpoint of Operation Chaos would have no reason to vote in any other race on the ballot. But true Dems would at least happily vote for Marcy.

Hillary carried Marcy’s district by a substantial margin. In fact, the difference of those voting for Hillary but not for Marcy was close to the difference between Hillary’s numbers and Obama’s numbers. Some might call it ‘anecdotal’ but polls also look only at the few and translate to the many in the same manner.

6 posted on 11/05/2012 1:21:28 AM PST by Kent C
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To: goldstategop; Fred Nerks

I believe that the polls are indeed way off, but I also think that the left knows that the polls are way off. The left ALSO know what the real numbers are, and they are preparing for the post electoral game, whatever that may be. It could involve litigation , rioting and mayhem, or both. It may not be a bumpless road for the electoral college to certify a winner by the 20th of January.It has the potential of becoming very bloody, which is a huge concern, and should be a huge concern for the governors of each state.

The only way we can avoid post election gamesmanship and violence is to make Romey’s vistory a landslide victory.The nation needs not just a Romney victory, the nation needs a landslide Romney victory.

7 posted on 11/05/2012 1:42:32 AM PST by Candor7 (Obama fascism article:
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To: Candor7

I worry about the extent of vote-fraud. Electronic voting machines and votes being tallied in a foreign the very least, purple fingers is what you need.
It’s really about time the US required ID to vote imo.

8 posted on 11/05/2012 3:17:12 AM PST by Fred Nerks (fair dinkum...)
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To: Arthurio

nice read thanks for posting

9 posted on 11/05/2012 3:36:02 AM PST by SPRINK
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To: Candor7
The leftwingtards have no idea what the real numbers are, and neither does POS, or any other pollster.

The response rate is so low at 9% that special interest groups like the GBLT, feminazi and abortion industry people are OVER-REPRESENTED.

Based on Gallup's results of their ongoing continual survey of how many GBLT's there are, the reality is these groups are about 1%, combined, but they make up 10% of the poll results!

Doesn't matter how many Democrats get in the mix when you have a problem like that!

10 posted on 11/05/2012 3:42:09 AM PST by muawiyah
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