“Some people want to believe we’re living in a world where the electorate is going to have a partisan composition” like 2008, Newhouse told reporters last week on a conference call, citing the current political environment. “That’s a stretch.”
As I understand it, some polls are weighted by the party registration of 2008. They likely discount Operation Chaos. Remember the shock (delight) of the MSM about the increase in number of Republicans changing their registration to Democrat in the 2008 primaries in Pennsylvania. Operation Chaos started around the Mississippi and Texas primaries and continued through Ohio, Pennsylvania, W.Va. Tennessee and Indiana, iirc. Hillary won all but Indiana and that was closer than anyone thought it would be.
Perhaps some people changed back to Republican registration in the general but really there was no need to. Not in 2010 either for most states. I’m guessing most changed back in the primary this year... So basing weight on a poll of registration in 2008 is going to skew at least some ‘toss up states’ like Ohio and Pennsylvania. How much change the weighting causes I don’t know but my guess is that if either are a ‘tie’ then Romney is ahead.
Of course the MSM never acknowledged Operation Chaos but I did some looking into totals in my own district. Our congresswoman, socialist Marcy Kaptur wins by anywhere from mid 60’s to mid 80% every two years. The Dems here love her. But the total of presidential votes in the 2008 primary far out numbered the votes for Kaptur. Anyone voting from the viewpoint of Operation Chaos would have no reason to vote in any other race on the ballot. But true Dems would at least happily vote for Marcy.
Hillary carried Marcy’s district by a substantial margin. In fact, the difference of those voting for Hillary but not for Marcy was close to the difference between Hillary’s numbers and Obama’s numbers. Some might call it ‘anecdotal’ but polls also look only at the few and translate to the many in the same manner.
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