Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call (R 47% O 47%)
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ^ | 11-4-2012 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:22:32 PM PDT by smoothsailing

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

by Mike Wereschagin

Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m.

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points..........

(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:22:33 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: randita

PA ping!


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:24:03 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

I thought Susquehanna Polling & Research had Romney up by 4? Why is this saying it is tied?


3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:29:09 PM PDT by willk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

IF PA and OH are really too close to call then Obama will get them because Those are two state where the democrats have well established system to cheat. Hence the reason why they went to their well planted judge to put a stop to voter ID.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:31:41 PM PDT by Revel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: willk

Romney is ahead.

The MSM will NEVER admit Obama is toast.


5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:04 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: willk

Different poll. Regardless, both show Obama is on the ropes in a state he easily won in 2008. If he loses Ohio or PA the election is over.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:12 PM PDT by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA. If I was an undecided voter in PA I would be flattered that they made an effort for my vote.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:46 PM PDT by Kahuna
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: willk

um..because it’s a different polling outfit?


8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:01 PM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Revel

Nope if Obama is really at 47%, Romney will win PA big.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 9:35:45 PM PDT by JLS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Revel

You are right about that. I heard on the radio today that because of voter fraud we can add from 2% up to as high as 6% to Obama’s side.

Lot’s of voter fraud happening

http://foxnewsinsider.com/tag/voter-fraud/


10 posted on 11/03/2012 9:35:45 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

They are the same polling agency. The recent one showing a four point lead was actually the same poll it released a couple weeks ago. It was not a new one.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 9:38:10 PM PDT by trackman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: trackman

It hasn’t changed. The poll was update with the same result as far as I remember.


12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:40:05 PM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: willk

Nope, the last SP&R had Obama up by two. This is brand new, the entire poll including internals will be released later today (Sunday) to coincide with Rommney’s rally in the Philly burbs.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 9:40:13 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Holy cow...a shift of six points in 3 weeks? Seems quite awful.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:03 PM PDT by woweeitsme
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

I’d like to know what the internals of this poll are. The early Susquehanna poll showing Romney +4 sampled Dems +4. That is simply not realistic in a state where the active registration edge is D+12. At D+8/D+9, which seems more realistic to me for PA in this cycle, that would mean a dead heat. Still, promising. But the newer poll may actually be the same result as before — just with more Dems in the sample.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 9:44:43 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

SP&R used a D+6 sample.


16 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:52 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Obama, pack it up buddy. You’ll probably run in 4 yeas anyways.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 9:48:15 PM PDT by toddausauras (FUBO x 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

That’s a little more realistic than the previous one. So, within the MOE it’s not really a different result; it’s still a dead heat.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:26 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: willk

That was an old poll.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 10:01:40 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Hmmm, PA has a 51-37 DEM-GOP registered voter breakout. Is D+6 realistic?


20 posted on 11/03/2012 10:03:28 PM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

Both polls used a D+6. As you say, within the MOE.

If we average the two, it’s Romney 48 Obama 46.

If 2/3 of the undecideds break for Romney he wins 52 to 48.

I’ll take it. It will make for an early night and a Romney wave rolling west!


21 posted on 11/03/2012 10:09:21 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

Yes it is, very much so.


22 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:05 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

It has nothing to do with registration.

In 2008 it was D+7 (D/R/I) 44/37/18 and in 2004 it was D+2 (D/R/I) 41/39/20.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:32 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I guess that makes sense. PA has GOP controlled upper and lower state houses, governorship, and US House representatives.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 10:14:05 PM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Kahuna

I will be at the rally in Philly tomorrow. I’m so excited!!


25 posted on 11/03/2012 10:15:47 PM PDT by PaulZe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

a lot of D’s will vote for Romney in Pa.

blue dog Reagan Democrats


26 posted on 11/03/2012 10:40:45 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 11:35:10 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna
Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.

Regardless of the D registration advantage, the self-identified vote went D+7 in 2008 and D+2 in 2004. a D+6 sample may be OVERSAMPLING Democrats.

28 posted on 11/03/2012 11:40:41 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner
Your figures are out of date. The current number according to the PA Dept of State was D/R/I 50/38/12 as of 10/15/2012.

Keep in mind that the we are a closed primary state, in consequence of which a lot of voters change party ID without changing official party registration unless they have a hot primary to vote in, so registration edge is somewhat of a lagging indicator here.

Susquehanna has a pretty good reputation, although I would be happier with D+8 or D+9. However, there are a LOT of lazy Dems in PA, so we win statewide races quite often during the midterm election years.

29 posted on 11/03/2012 11:41:50 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: PaulZe
They are counting on the Philly suburbs being flippable. IMHO, they should be working the Northeastern part of the state as well. Coal country is usually Dem leaning, but has gone for Republicans in Presidential years in the past, and with the war on coal, they will run some anti-EPA ads in the Scranton Wilkes-Barre area if they're smart (much cheaper ad-buy, though far fewer votes than the Philadelphia market.)

I wish the Scranton diocese and Johnston/Altoona archdiocese would have priests reading the episcopal letters being read out at Mass in Illinois this Sunday. OH and PA have very large ethnic Catholic populations and the Roman Church could help.

30 posted on 11/03/2012 11:47:48 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

The registration edge for Dems in PA is that big?? Very surprising considering their congressional delegation usually tilts Republican and I think the GOP has controlled the legislature for most of the recent past. The state is certainly very purple so it must be that a lot of those registered Dems vote Republican in many elections. So I am hopeful Mitt can eke out a win there. If so he will almost certainly take the presidency.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 4:10:04 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: TNCMAXQ

Actually of those identifying as Republican vs. Democrat (including leaners), Gallup has PA with a D+5 edge (in 2011). That’s a large swing from 2009. You can see those statistics as well as other states from this link:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx


32 posted on 11/04/2012 4:29:56 AM PST by trackman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


33 posted on 11/04/2012 5:01:26 AM PST by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

Actually, D+6 is quite reasonable. If anything, it understates the crossover vote this year. A D+4 or D+5 is more likely, IMO.

In Pennsylvania, voter registration is a lousy indicator of voter intent. Consider the fact that a D+13 registration advantage has resulted in a current Republican Governor, Republican control of the General Assembly, a Republican majority Congressional delegation, and one of the most conservative Republican US Senators(Pat Toomey).


34 posted on 11/04/2012 5:34:48 AM PST by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Leftist PPP is claiming Obama has a six point lead in PA... with D+10... (D/R/I: 48/38/14)


35 posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:47 AM PST by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

That’s laughable, PPP is certainly known for skewing polls. LOL

A D+4-6 range is realistic.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 10:34:15 AM PST by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Kahuna

“Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA.”

It would be “brilliant” if they’d remind the people in PA about Hussein’s remark about the bitter clinger hicks in areas like Pennsylvania. I wonder if they remember that.


37 posted on 11/04/2012 1:57:37 PM PST by MayflowerMadam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 4:53:02 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.


39 posted on 11/04/2012 5:04:48 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

Think positive, Fred.

Remember, Romney was on the winning end of the Redskins Rule today!


40 posted on 11/04/2012 5:17:33 PM PST by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: willk

2 weeks ago they had Romney up by 4. In their new poll, Romney dropped 2 and Obama gained 2. So it’s really a discouraging sign, with the momentum on Obama’s side in PA. Still too close to call though.


41 posted on 11/04/2012 5:27:45 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Ever since I stopped being a union thug in the early 80’s I’ve worked phone banks and as a poll watcher for Republicans. The thrill of Reagan crushing Mondull was a once in a lifetime experience. This year, I just don’t have the time; the memory of being told by McCain’s people that “internal polling” was telling them we could win PA (we lost by 10+) has left me deeply suspicious. I hope it’s true. But I’m keeping my expectations low.


42 posted on 11/04/2012 6:05:18 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna

Democrats in PA aren’t the typical liberals you get further northeast. They are mainly two groups. Blue collar Catholic types, who want very conservative social policy on guns, abortion and marriage, but they want high taxes on the “greedy” rich to be redistributed back to them. The other type are basically libertarians, wealthier, who want low taxes for obvious reasons, would be fine with legal abortion, same-sex marriage, and gun control, but would be fine with government making a bunch of fiscal cuts in general.

This makes a lot of PA Democrats potential swing voters, and it also makes them not particularly enthusiastic, which is why they don’t show up for mid-terms that much. Neither party really speaks to everything they really want.


43 posted on 11/04/2012 6:52:51 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: FredZarguna
the memory of being told by McCain’s people that “internal polling” was telling them we could win PA (we lost by 10+) has left me deeply suspicious.

I volunteered for McCain/Palin here and they told us the same thing basically. Didn't bother to volunteer this time. It was a pretty demoralizing experience. And Romney not even trying to campaign in PA until the last minute, unlike Bush and McCain who hit here heavily, was not too encouraging. Of course I've never been enthusiastic about Romney as a candidate, and didn't bother attending any of his rallies unlike I did for Bush and Palin.

44 posted on 11/04/2012 6:55:52 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson