Posted on 11/03/2012 9:14:39 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call
By Mike Wereschagin
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m. Updated 11 minutes ago
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.
Theyre both in here because of exactly what youre seeing in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The polls error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.
Im concerned about all the young people graduating from college, whether theyre finding jobs, said Pauline Hoxie, 84, a Republican from Jersey Shore in Lycoming County. Her grandson graduated with a degree in graphic design but works a manual labor job because he cant find openings in his field, she said.
Democrats shrugged off the Romney campaigns late play for Pennsylvania, sending emails to supporters and journalists showing past Republican presidential candidates doing the same thing. Pennsylvania hasnt given its electoral votes to the Republican candidate since 1988.
The states urban, suburban and rural voters usually give winners narrower victories than Obamas 10-point win in 2008. John Kerry won by 2.5 percentage points in 2004; Al Gore won by 4.2 in 2000.
The state is a tempting target for candidates in close races. It has two more electoral votes than the 18 up for grabs in Ohio, the focus of more campaign activity in the past few weeks than any other state.
Some people call it fools gold. Republicans come close but it just doesnt happen at the end of the day, Lee said.
It could be different for the GOP this year, Lee said.
Pennsylvanias unemployment rate surpassed the national average in September after remaining below average throughout the recession. In Ohio, where both campaigns have spent far more time and money, the unemployment rate was 7 percent in September, more than a percentage point lower than Pennsylvanias 8.2 percent.
There is no president who only deals with what happens during his four years, said Lorraine Gregor, 61, a Democrat from McKees Rocks. I dont care who the president wouldve been when Barack Obama took office; we would be talking about the same thing today.
The national unemployment rate was 7.9 percent in October, when employers added 171,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
I just dont feel that President Obama is doing the job at all. What has he accomplished? said Roger Briggs, 67, of Monongahela. He questioned why accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohamed and Fort Hood gunman Nidal Malik Hassan havent been tried. Theyre too lenient on these Muslims, these radical Muslims. Hes bending over backwards.
Obama enjoyed wide leads in state polling during most of the race. That narrowed when Romneys image improved as a result of the October presidential debates. Susquehanna found 48 percent of voters view Romney favorably, the first time he tied Obama on that measure. A Trib poll in September found Obama with a 47 percent favorability rating, compared with Romneys 41 percent.
Weve continued to show the president failing to hit the 50-percent mark. Pennsylvanians have pretty much split their perceptions of him. Those perceptions are hardened; they dont change, Lee said.
What changed, he said, is Romneys image among undecided voters: Romney has given undecided a reason to vote for him.
Romneys image suffered among some voters because of comments he made at a fundraiser that 47 percent of people see themselves as victims entitled to government handouts.
Romney has since called the remarks completely wrong.
I dont believe Romney is concerned with the working class. I just dont like how were looked at these days, said Gregory Lutz, 64, a Democrat from Mildred in Sullivan County. Attacks that highlighted Romneys foreign bank accounts sowed more doubt, he said.
Because hes taken advantage of offshore tax benefits, I dont trust what he says about keeping jobs in the U.S.
Pennsylvanias sudden emergence as a state up for grabs shouldnt surprise anyone, Lee said. Even when state polls showed a wide gap in Obamas favor, the president rarely registered more than 50 percent, he said.
I think its always been here for the taking, Lee said. The question, he said, is whether Romneys recent play for the state is a day late and a dollar short.
Mike Wereschagin is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. He can be reached at 412-320-7900 or mwereschagin@tribweb.com.
Read more: http://triblive.com/home/2878015-74/romney-percent-poll-state-obama-pennsylvania-president-lee-presidential-voters#ixzz2BDvjARxP
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The ads in Pittsburgh have been hard hitting and nonstop. I saw one Obama ad with Colin Powell and that one was weak.
Then Dems in PA are nervous.
Columbus Dispatch has endorsed Romney. In reading, the key in Ohio is going to be Republican turnout, I think it is going to be huge.
I think that R/R will carry both OH and PA.
Then its virtually in the bag for Romney.
Voter fraud wont come into play unless it is down to a few thousand votes. It is a problem, but the effect isnt bad enough to negate a 1%+ win.
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You don’t know the situation in Philadelphia. Fraudulent voting is in the tens of thousands of votes; not “a few thousand”. It’s unfortunate that Voter ID won’t be in effect this year in PA. I hope that at least the poll watchers will ask to see ID (they’re allowed to do that this year even though the potential voter is not required to produce it). Just asking for ID may have some deterrent effect.
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