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Pittsburgh Tribune poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call (47/47)
Pittsburgh Tribune ^ | November 3, 2012 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:14:39 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

By Mike Wereschagin

Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m. Updated 11 minutes ago

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.

“I’m concerned about all the young people graduating from college, whether they’re finding jobs,” said Pauline Hoxie, 84, a Republican from Jersey Shore in Lycoming County. Her grandson graduated with a degree in graphic design but works a manual labor job because he can’t find openings in his field, she said.

Democrats shrugged off the Romney campaign’s late play for Pennsylvania, sending emails to supporters and journalists showing past Republican presidential candidates doing the same thing. Pennsylvania hasn’t given its electoral votes to the Republican candidate since 1988.

The state’s urban, suburban and rural voters usually give winners narrower victories than Obama’s 10-point win in 2008. John Kerry won by 2.5 percentage points in 2004; Al Gore won by 4.2 in 2000.

The state is a tempting target for candidates in close races. It has two more electoral votes than the 18 up for grabs in Ohio, the focus of more campaign activity in the past few weeks than any other state.

“Some people call it fool’s gold. Republicans come close but it just doesn’t happen at the end of the day,” Lee said.

It could be different for the GOP this year, Lee said.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate surpassed the national average in September after remaining below average throughout the recession. In Ohio, where both campaigns have spent far more time and money, the unemployment rate was 7 percent in September, more than a percentage point lower than Pennsylvania’s 8.2 percent.

“There is no president who only deals with what happens during his four years,” said Lorraine Gregor, 61, a Democrat from McKees Rocks. “I don’t care who the president would’ve been when Barack Obama took office; we would be talking about the same thing today.”

The national unemployment rate was 7.9 percent in October, when employers added 171,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“I just don’t feel that President Obama is doing the job at all. What has he accomplished?” said Roger Briggs, 67, of Monongahela. He questioned why accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohamed and Fort Hood gunman Nidal Malik Hassan haven’t been tried. “They’re too lenient on these Muslims, these radical Muslims. He’s bending over backwards.”

Obama enjoyed wide leads in state polling during most of the race. That narrowed when Romney’s image improved as a result of the October presidential debates. Susquehanna found 48 percent of voters view Romney favorably, the first time he tied Obama on that measure. A Trib poll in September found Obama with a 47 percent favorability rating, compared with Romney’s 41 percent.

“We’ve continued to show the president failing to hit the 50-percent mark. Pennsylvanians have pretty much split their perceptions of him. Those perceptions are hardened; they don’t change,” Lee said.

What changed, he said, is Romney’s image among undecided voters: “Romney has given undecided a reason to vote for him.”

Romney’s image suffered among some voters because of comments he made at a fundraiser that 47 percent of people see themselves as victims entitled to government handouts.

Romney has since called the remarks “completely wrong.”

“I don’t believe Romney is concerned with the working class. I just don’t like how we’re looked at these days,” said Gregory Lutz, 64, a Democrat from Mildred in Sullivan County. Attacks that highlighted Romney’s foreign bank accounts sowed more doubt, he said.

Because he’s taken advantage of offshore tax benefits, “I don’t trust what he says about keeping jobs in the U.S.”

Pennsylvania’s sudden emergence as a state up for grabs shouldn’t surprise anyone, Lee said. Even when state polls showed a wide gap in Obama’s favor, the president rarely registered more than 50 percent, he said.

“I think it’s always been here for the taking,” Lee said. The question, he said, is whether Romney’s recent play for the state is “a day late and a dollar short.”

Mike Wereschagin is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. He can be reached at 412-320-7900 or mwereschagin@tribweb.com.

Read more: http://triblive.com/home/2878015-74/romney-percent-poll-state-obama-pennsylvania-president-lee-presidential-voters#ixzz2BDvjARxP

Follow us: @triblive on Twitter | triblive on Facebook


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; obama; pennsylvania; poll; romney
Updated Susquehanna Poll just out
1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:14:49 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin

Follow the $.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/pres_stateAll.php?cycle=2012


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:17:50 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: Arec Barrwin
A sitting president at 47% is in trouble. If the undecideds break as they normally do, Romney is looking at a 52%/48% win. That should be enough even to counter the 1% or so the democrats usually get from Philly fraud, (one Philly precinct had 119% turnout in 2008)
3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:23:46 PM PDT by apillar
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To: Arec Barrwin

Meanwhile dispatch poll shows O-50 to R-48 (Ohio). I almost feel like R/R would be better off going for PA. Ohio just seems poisoned.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:24:00 PM PDT by SMCC1
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To: Arec Barrwin

Voter fraud - the elephant in the room.


5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:26:36 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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To: Arec Barrwin

If Pittsburgh is getting polls results that the presidential race is tied then ? Romney is in good shape to take PA.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:26:58 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: SMCC1

OH dispatch poll is D+4. not happening. R wins OH by minimum of 2-3


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:39:33 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: SMCC1

As posters just said on another conservative site:

“If Romney is tied in PA, he’s ahead in Ohio.”

and the reply was:

” Absolutely..and up significantly. WPA votes very much like Eastern Ohio.” WPA = western pennsylvania


8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:45:27 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: apillar

He’s at 47% in virtually every state of significance, and many national polls. It’s looking to be the magic negro’s magic number.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 9:48:51 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: Ciexyz

Voter fraud won’t come into play unless it is down to a few thousand votes. It is a problem, but the effect isn’t bad enough to negate a 1%+ win.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 9:54:10 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: KoRn

47%? That sounds familiar for some mysterious reason.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 9:56:44 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: SMCC1

Rooters had Ohio at Obama by 1%

internals: 46% Dem/38% GOP

Feel better?


12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:57:31 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GeronL

Rooters had Ohio at Obama by 1%

internals: 46% Dem/38% GOP

Feel better?
_______________________

Actually, I do. ;0)


13 posted on 11/03/2012 10:01:45 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: conservativepoet

the cheating machines still worry me though

:p


14 posted on 11/03/2012 10:13:11 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arec Barrwin

In case anyone is curious, the Trib is the more conservative of the two major Pittsburgh newspapers. The Post-Gazette is a liberal rag.

I’ve seen an awful lot of Romney signs in the suburbs just outside Pittsburgh - even in liberal areas. Whether Romney has enough support to flip PA red is anyone’s guess, but I certainly hope so, because I’m not so optimistic about Ohio.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 10:14:51 PM PDT by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: SMCC1

Obama targeted Ohio as part of the firewall from day one and has put 100 million into Ohio bashing romney for 6 months. Plus OH, has early voting that started 1 day before the first debate.

PA has minimal early voting and relatively few ads which allowed the real Romney to show through.

Yes, PA and OH are now battlegrounds.


16 posted on 11/03/2012 10:43:29 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

Michael Barone has written about PA also supporting Romney because of Obama’s war on the suburbs and the middle class.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 11:28:01 PM PDT by Steven W.
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To: Arec Barrwin
"Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president."

Almost half? WTH can be more important to these people, any people today then getting the economy turned around and jobs created? Something is wrong with this poll.

18 posted on 11/04/2012 2:18:32 AM PST by Lacey2
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To: Steven W.

Not to mention the war on coal that has effected the western part of Pa.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 3:39:07 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: TMA62

Not to mention the war on coal that has effected the western part of Pa.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Why should that make a difference.

I remember ‘rejoicing’ in 07 or 08 when THEY openly vowed to shut down the mines in W PA and Murtha and OB waltzed into office without a hiccup.

Of course while campaigning, Murtha and OB may have ‘marched in backwards’ and everyone thought they were leaving????


20 posted on 11/04/2012 4:15:29 AM PST by xrmusn (6/98 BO/ 'Hope', "Hope in one hand and $hiite in the other and see which fills up first".)
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To: Arec Barrwin

The ads in Pittsburgh have been hard hitting and nonstop. I saw one Obama ad with Colin Powell and that one was weak.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 4:27:13 AM PST by HopewellGOP
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To: Arec Barrwin

Then Dems in PA are nervous.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/democrats-in-deep-blue-pa-voice-confidence—and-some-nervousness/2012/11/03/a551ae2c-25cf-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html


22 posted on 11/04/2012 4:50:03 AM PST by Atlantan
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To: SMCC1

Columbus Dispatch has endorsed Romney. In reading, the key in Ohio is going to be Republican turnout, I think it is going to be huge.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 4:53:57 AM PST by Toespi
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To: SMCC1

I think that R/R will carry both OH and PA.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 5:15:54 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Arec Barrwin
and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama

Then its virtually in the bag for Romney.

25 posted on 11/04/2012 5:18:19 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: wolfman23601

Voter fraud won’t come into play unless it is down to a few thousand votes. It is a problem, but the effect isn’t bad enough to negate a 1%+ win.
*****************************************************************
You don’t know the situation in Philadelphia. Fraudulent voting is in the tens of thousands of votes; not “a few thousand”. It’s unfortunate that Voter ID won’t be in effect this year in PA. I hope that at least the poll watchers will ask to see ID (they’re allowed to do that this year even though the potential voter is not required to produce it). Just asking for ID may have some deterrent effect.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 8:30:46 AM PST by House Atreides
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