Parsing the Polls - If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party

NRO ^ | November 3, 2012 | Michael G. Franc

[pburgh01]

But do you really think Obama will make a concession speech? He is a classless fool. I can’t see him humbling himself.

"Well Michelle and I fought a good race, we brought change to America, the landscape has changed due to all your hard work. In 2008 you wanted to make the American dream possible for everyone and you did. We will continue to fight on for affordable healthcare for everyone, stopping global warming, civil rights and for economic equality for all Americans."

This is what you will hear...., whatever Magic Negro, go home and pack..

[PJ-Comix]

We could be in for YEARS of DUFU comedy gold!!!

[jonno]

...we will watch MSNBC all night to see the liberals implode...

What a party that will be - better than watching the Super Bowl!

[ROCKLOBSTER]

In other words he wants his polls to have credibility in the last couple of days of the election campaign.

Probably, but that's the only time it could, as most voters just aren't paying attention until about two weeks before an election.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Why does everybody seem to act as if the 2010 election never happened? Democrats lost something like 700 seats nationwide. The anger that grew in 2009 and 2010 has not abated one bit...it has grown.

[napscoordinator]

and he knows it.

He certainly does. Obama would not have purchased a home in Hawaii if he thought he was going to win. Why not wait until after the election to purchase a home if he thought he was going to win? I know he has to purchase a home either for January 2013 or January 2017 regardless, but to do so before the election 2012 proves he knows he is going to lose.

[gswilder]

The campaigns already have a pretty good sense of how this race is going to play out. And many in the media do, but will not share until after the election.

And by 10pm on election night, both campaigns will probably be 99% certain of the final outcome. If there are 2-3 states that could be challenged for a recount, then then will not concede. If they know the gig is up, Obama will concede pretty quickly and pack for Hawaii.

[Arrowhead1952]

The liberal Austin American-Statesman reports that early voting is down in liberal Travis County but up in the rest Texas, which is, of course, Romney country.

I live in far NW Travis county near the lake. There are several hundred Romney signs and two 0 bummer signs, the last of which went up this week. I stood in line for over an hour the other day for early voting. People were talking about less spending and getting rid of 0 bummer care.

[Alberta's Child]

Good point, but keep in mind that voter turnout in a midterm election is consistently lower than in presidential election years.

Some major state-level elections are even more unconventional because they occur in "mid-midterm" years. The governor of New Jersey and the mayor of New York City, for example, were both elected in 2009.

[randita]

A lot of Reagan Democrats reached the conclusion that their party has veered so far left, they don’t recognize it any longer.

So they’ve just made it official and come home to the GOP. Or if they couldn’t make it that far, they’ve at least gone Indie.

[bert]

CYA

[Caipirabob]

Good article—I continue to call it 54-46.

Here's to hoping we're all calling you a genius come Wednesday if not sooner.

[hinckley buzzard]

They didn't do well in 2008, so they may feel they have soemthing to prove.

[Hotlanta Mike]

‘Romney’s Pennsylvania push not a mirage’

The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.

But there is a method to Mitt’s supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:

Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.

The electorate has changed since 2008 in several states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Colorado. These states are all trending red and liberals may be in a for a very rude surprise on Wednesday morning.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/11/romneys_pennsylvania_push_not_a_mirage.html#ixzz2BAWCgULn

[Jane Long]

"If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his party’s standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who “lean” one way or the other."

More FAIL for 0.

[4Liberty]

Voters have come to understand this recession and housing meltdown was caused by Democrats, not "failed capitalism." That's why Bambam's last-ditch, complaining argument, "Ykno stay with me, don't go back to the days of bad policies" is totally hilarious, AND BEING UTTERLY REJECTED BY VOTERS.

[cgbg]

MSNBC will seize on a Democratic victory in a dog-catcher race in Dubuque, Iowa as offering “hope for a Democratic come-back”. :-)

[chainsaw]

He certainly does. Obama would not have purchased a home in Hawaii if he thought he was going to win. Why not wait until after the election to purchase a home if he thought he was going to win?

You may be right. Four more years of the Kenyan and the price could be close to zero. Figuratively speaking.