[SoftwareEngineer]

COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER

Here we go! 5 days left.

This sample has 2 days of post Sandy polling. This data also (allegedly) has 2 days of polling where Rasmussen polled 1000 people daily instead of his usual 500

No internals are available yet, so we cannot calculate right now what the "D+" number is. When we last got internals, Rasmussen was using D+3

So, the race remains broadly stable, outside of statistical noise

I look forward to studying the internal data (along with nhwingut) when it is made available to analyze the internal trends

Here is what I am looking for in the internal data:

1. The lead the Governor has with Independents 2. His gender "gap" 3. Right Track/Wrong Track 4. Overall job approval and approval index 5. Number of Hispanics/Asians voting "R" 6. The percentage of the Republican base that the Governor is getting

More soon. Stay tuned!

[traderrob6]

Is Gallup announcing a poll today?

[SoftwareEngineer]

Stable Ras ping!

[ilgipper]

Good to see it stable. Liked it better when Romney was sitting at 50%, but absolutely love to see Obama still sitting well south of 50. Seems to show the lead is steady.

Was actually sweating this one today to see if it showed any fundamental changes with the storm/campaign lull. Seems to back up many of our views that this race moved fundamentally to Romney in October, and those that made up their mind are sticking with their decision.

[BlueStateRightist]

I’m going to name my next dead cat Sandy and see how she bounces.

[mrs9x]

It will be interesting to see the internals. It does not appear that Sandy has created some magical bounce for Obama.

The jobs report out tomorrow might have an impact, depending on what it says.

[Ravi]

It’s gonna be a bumpy ride for the next few days! Hang tight. Also I’ve contributed to the campaign and would like to make calls (from TX) but I wonder if I’ll end up being more a hindrance. I know I hate calls from campaigns and wonder if anything else anyone would recommend I do for the next 5 days. If it’s calls, I’ll call. I have tomorrow off - instead of biting my fingernails and staring at early voting/polls/freerepublic, I’d like to do something to help.

[Tulane]

3 thoughts...

1) Romney’s 4th day at 49 percent signals a slight down shift in his support.

2) Obama’s stuck at 47%.

3) If the race stays where it is, and Rasmussen’s turnout model is correct, Obama is going to lose the popular vote.

[DoctorBulldog]

Too close for comfort! No wonder the LSM doesn’t want to release those emails which show Obama gave the stand down order in the Benghazi attack.

Cheers!

[apillar]

The race has been stalled at 49%R 47%O for the last five days now. If I would have to guess I would say the hurricane effectively froze the race in place where it was on Sunday. The good thing is that Obama seems to have gotten nothing in the way of a bump from the storm. I would prefer for Ras to be back up with a 4 or 5 point margin before election day, but considering undecideds break for the challenger, we are still looking at 52%R 48%O.

[goldstategop]

No surprises!

I didn’t really expect any and I don’t foresee a late Obama surge in the last days of the election; it didn’t happen for McCain and it won’t happen for O.

47% is his ceiling, 42% is his possible low floor and 45% is likely where its going to be on Election Day.

[ShovelThemOut]

Two things to keep in mind:

1. The media outlets all declared the Wisconsin Recall was too close to call, and we all know how that turned out.

2. The polls showed Kerry up in Ohio by 5 points in the days leading up to the 2004 election, and Bush won Ohio.

[Proudcongal]

Just glad Romney’s still up 2. At least he’s not down.

[ConservativeDude]

Homosexual activist Nate Silver up to 79% chance of obama winning....

[John W]

What might this information from Mark Murray of NBC News, @mmurraypolitics, mean?

Romney’s final sked: THU — VA; FRI — WI, OH; SAT — IA, NH, CO; SUN: —TDB; MON –NH

Obama’s final sked: THU — WI, NV, CO; FRI — OH; SAT — OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN — NH, FL, OH, CO; MON — WI, OH, IA

[ConservativeInPA]

[grumpygresh]

Looking at recent presdiential election history, the incumbent typically gets one percent and the challneger gets the rest. So with 49-47 Romney, the final popular vote should be close to 52 (51 and some change because of minor party voters) and 48 for the worst US president in history. This type of popular vote lead is not consistent with a concurrent EC loss.

[MuttTheHoople]

Since the election will be R +5, add 8 to Romney and subtract 8 to Obama. You have 57-39. Of the remaining 4%, 75% goes to the challenger. So, you have Romney winning 60-40.

Don't doubt me. This will be a Chik-Fil-A landslide election.

[Rockitz]

I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either not vote for Obama or neither. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.

[Rockitz]

I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either vote for Obama or neither candidate. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

The one reliable Poll (Rasmussen) has been crippled by Sandy. What they have been reporting is pretty much the same stuff for the last 3 days.