[apillar]

The race has been stalled at 49%R 47%O for the last five days now. If I would have to guess I would say the hurricane effectively froze the race in place where it was on Sunday. The good thing is that Obama seems to have gotten nothing in the way of a bump from the storm. I would prefer for Ras to be back up with a 4 or 5 point margin before election day, but considering undecideds break for the challenger, we are still looking at 52%R 48%O.

[comebacknewt]

I agree.

Assuming Ras is correct, it is huge news that Obama hasn’t budged an inch due to the hurricane. I admit I was extremely worried about him getting a bounce.

I am now expecting the traditional election model to unfold where the challenger wins late deciders by a 3-1 margin. If so, Rove’s 51 - 48 prediction will be right non the money.