Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

Rasmussen Reports Polling Data ^ | October 27, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

With only one week left, can Romney drag the Senate over to Republicans? Time is running out.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Pinging the list.

-PJ

[bitt]

ping

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[1010RD]

It would be excellent to win the Senate, but politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

[Mr. Jeeves]

In Florida, the race tightened again this week. Romney lost -1% to 50%, and Obama gained +2% to 48%. Florida downgrades from Strong to Leans for Romney.

Exactly what has happened to cause Obama to gain points in Florida this week? New York liberals moving down for the winter, and getting ready to vote a second time?

[Marine_Uncle]

One can almost forget there is soon to be a major election taking place with all the news being thrown out regarding the Benghazi tragedy.
If the Senate does swing back to the Republican side, and the House stays in Republican control, one could wonder what they will collectively do in order to somehow change the spending patterns that put us into this mess to begin with.

[Political Junkie Too]

That has always been the rap against Republican Congressmen since they first retook the House after 40 years in 1994-1995.

They said that Republicans were so used to being in the minority that they didn't know how to (or were just plain uncomfortable at) using majority tactics.

Republicans shouldn't fear leading, but I'm afraid that they too often cower from power.

Just like how liberals try to shame America from using its strength against others (i.e., proportional response), they are also successful at convincing Republicans against using their strength when they take control of Congress. Democrats slam Republicans at every turn, but always make Republicans "reach across the aisle" for "bipartisan compromise" when Republicans have control.

-PJ

[carlo3b]

politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

Very astute, and spot on.. I have the same reluctance about the Senate, and holding a razor thin majority.. Consequently, the Dems would do to us, basically what we did to them, and force a super majority to pass most every meaningful bill without a prolong fight..

Having to negotiate with weak Dems with a purple state, gives a win with cover and a bipartisan conclusion that Obambam never had..

I would give up my favorite copper-bottom skillet, to have a super majority and skate to utopia but it ain't gonna happen this time..

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings might change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls

 

10/27/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[okie01]

It would be excellent to win the Senate, but politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

Horse hockey.

The "danger" is that Harry Reid and another Democrat Senate roadblock everything that Romney and the GOP House undertake to correct the economy...and, as a consequence, the economy stays in the tank for the next four years.

And one vital key to correcting the economy is repealing Obamacare. And, if we don't have the Senate, that's not going to happen.

"Politically dangerous", my butt! The only opportunity we have to succeed is to take the Senate along with the Presidency.

[Political Junkie Too]

Even with just a bare minimum control of the Senate, it would be easier for Romney to confirm the two (at least) Supreme Court picks he'll get to make.

Schumer and Leahy are still lurking out there, waiting to pounce on "out of the mainstream" judges.

-PJ

[okie01]

If the Senate does swing back to the Republican side, and the House stays in Republican control, one could wonder what they will collectively do in order to somehow change the spending patterns that put us into this mess to begin with.

Killing Obamacare immediately reduces the future spending by $3 trillion.

It's a start...

[bigbob]

Good work, thanks. Of course, only as accurate as the polling data...

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks.

My bias correction routine randomly adds between 0-3 points to Republicans, and takes away the same from Democrats. That adjustment is worth 30 EV for Romney.

-PJ

[Kozak]

What is the point if we can’t get anything done, which we won’t if the rats hold the Senate?

[Marine_Uncle]

"It's a start... "
Indeed it would be.

[ExTexasRedhead]

PRIORITY!!! DeathCare has got to be repealed or we can all bend over and kiss our rears goodbye. Anyone over 65 needs to re-read their history books about Nazi Germany, IMO. ObamaCare/DeathCare is Holocaust II!!! People over 65 can forget getting medical care as Big Bro will deny you care and ship you to a Hospice Center. It’s already begun.

[Marine_Uncle]

I’ll second your statements. Facts well written.