Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls
| 10/27/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent | |||
Romney’s pollster did a poll in which he also tested Mandell’s numbers (as he has for months). He has had Mandell at -4 for some time. Then, last week, Mandell shot into a 1-point lead. Just one more indicator that the national polls are very sluggish when it comes to OH.
Disagree with some of this list. Connie Mack has been a complete bomb, and even with these favorable conditions it will take a miracle for him to win. On the other hand Tom Smith and Linda McMahon are running ahead of Romney in their states, and if Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than few percentage points, I think they’ll be swept in. Even Todd Akin has been polling better than Mack - so much for the predictions of a blowout there.
Kyrillos is a complete non-entity, and I’d rank him behind Summers, who could pull out an upset if the Dem candidate over-performs and Romney puts some focus on ME-2 in the closing days, and Lingle who at least is well known and liked. I’d like to see Ras or someone remotely respectable poll in ME and HI, because lately it’s been nothing but those untrustworthy newspaper polls there.