Posted on 10/20/2012 3:07:21 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
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October 13, 2012
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August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
This Edition's Updates:
The Race for the White House
Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone up slightly from 253 to 259 Electoral Votes. Romney remains at 248 (an error last week reported Romney at 245), leaving 31 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 36% chance of winning, up from 28% last week.
This week, Rasmussen polled Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Let's look at each state.
In Florida, Romney sustained his 51% support, while Obama lost 1% from last week. Romney increases his lead in Florida to 51%-46%, keeping Florida Strong for Romney.
In Indiana, this is the first poll taken since early August. Romney gained 3% from the summer and Obama gained 6%. Despite Obama's gains, the state is still Safe for Romney at 54%-41%.
In Massachusetts, both Romney and Obama gained 2% from the last poll at the end of September. Massachusetts is a Safe state for Obama at 57%-42%.
In Missouri, Romney surged in the past two weeks. Romney gaind 5% to Obama's loss of 3%, netting a 54%-43% result. Missouri moves from Leans to Safe for Romney.
In Montana, this is another state that has not had a poll since the end of August. Already Safe for Romney, Romney did lose 2% from August, while Obama gained 7%. Still, the Romney maintains an 11% lead over Obama at 54%-43%.
In Nevada, a re-poll from last week's tie has Romney holding steady at 47%, but Obama gained 3%, making Nevada now 50%-47% for Obama. Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Leans Obama, and Obama regains the 6 Electoral Votes that he lost last week.
In New Hampshire, another re-poll from last week has Obama inching ahead of Romney from last week's 48% tie. Romney gained 1%, but Obama gained 2%, leaving New Hampshire 50%-49% for Obama. New Hampshire remains a Toss-up.
In North Carolina, yet another re-poll from last week has Romney expanding his lead. Romney gains 1% to 52%, while Obama slips back to September levels at 46%. North Carolina moves to Strong for Romney.
In Ohio, a re-poll from last week shows Obama maintaining a 1% lead as each candidate gains 1% from last week. The 49%-48% lead for Obama keeps Ohio a Toss-up.
In Virginia, the third consecutive week of polling has Romney finally gaining 1% from prior polls, while Obama sustains his prior level. Romney now leads by 3% at 50%-47%. Virginia remains a Lean for Romney.
In Washington, Romney gained 1% from two weeks ago, but Obama gained 3%. Washington remains Safe for Obama at 55%-42%
In Wisconsin, a re-poll from last week has each candidate back-sliding 1% from last week to 50%-48% for Obama. Wisconsin remains a Lean for Obama.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Summary of Electoral College breakdown
Obama - 259 | Romney - 248 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 6 | Iowa | 9 | Colorado | 13 | Virginia | 29 | Florida | 9 | Alabama |
3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 6 | Nevada | 4 | New Hampshire | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska | ||
3 | Delaware | 20 | Pennsylvania | 10 | Wisconsin | 18 | Ohio | 15 | North Carolina | 11 | Arizona | ||
4 | Hawaii | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||||
20 | Illinois | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
4 | Maine | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
10 | Maryland | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
10 | Minnesota | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
5 | New Mexico | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
29 | New York | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
7 | Oregon | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
4 | Rhode Island | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
3 | Vermont | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||
12 | Washington | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||
11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
38 | Texas | ||||||||||||
6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
194 | 43 | 22 | 31 | 13 | 60 | 175 | |||||||
2008 Final Results
Link to 2008 Final Election Map
Current State Leanings
Link to Current Electoral College Map
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
12-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
19-May-12 | 197 | 225.09 | 248 | 0.23% |
26-May-12 | 206 | 232.72 | 256 | 1.21% |
02-Jun-12 | 216 | 242.46 | 266 | 4.43% |
09-Jun-12 | 221 | 247.73 | 275 | 14.02% |
16-Jun-12 | 230 | 257.37 | 282 | 28.95% |
23-Jun-12 | 231 | 257.92 | 282 | 30.10% |
30-Jun-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
07-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
14-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
21-Jul-12 | 219 | 248.33 | 276 | 16.46% |
28-Jul-12 | 215 | 244.1 | 272 | 11.78% |
04-Aug-12 | 216 | 245.64 | 273 | 12.75% |
11-Aug-12 | 215 | 245.24 | 273 | 12.05% |
18-Aug-12 | 225 | 255.61 | 282 | 25.11% |
25-Aug-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 21.52% |
01-Sep-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 22.08% |
08-Sep-12 | 224 | 252.45 | 281 | 21.66% |
15-Sep-12 | 221 | 249.88 | 278 | 17.54% |
22-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.98 | 278 | 20.34% |
29-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.04 | 277 | 19.04% |
06-Oct-12 | 225 | 253.31 | 279 | 21.00% |
13-Oct-12 | 233 | 258.74 | 283 | 27.69% |
20-Oct-12 | 242 | 264.04 | 285 | 35.65% |
And over in the Senate...
The Republican GOP Senate campaign has shown no signs of rebounding from the autumn collapse. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint? A news story today shows that the Republican National Committee has $83 million in bank. When are they going to spend that money to regain the Senate?
This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.
The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.
As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 5.5% for Republicans taking over.
Since the last report, Rasmussen polled Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia Senate races.
In Florida, a re-poll from last week has the race closing slightly. Republican Mack gained 2% and Democrat Nelson lost 4%, but Nelson is still leading 48%-43%.
In Indiana, this is the first poll since early August. Republican Mourdock gained 5% and Democrat Donnelly gained 2%, but Mourdock is holding onto a 47%-42% lead.
In Michigan, Republican Hoekstra gained 2% from a poll three weeks ago, and Democrat Stabenow lost 2% from three weeks ago, but Stabenow still holds a commanding 51%-39% lead.
In Missouri, Democrat McCaskill is holding stead from two weeks ago at 51%. Republican Akin lost 2% to 43%.
In Montana, this is the first poll since late August when Republican Rehberg was leading Democrat Tester 47%-43%. The race is now tied at 48%.
In Nevada, a re-poll from last week shows Republican Heller pulling away from Democrat Berkley. Heller gained 2% and Berkley lost 2%, making the race now 50%-43% for Republicans.
In Ohio, a re-poll from last week has the Democrat Brown gaining 2% and Republican Mandel losing 2%. The race is now 49%-44% for Brown.
In Virginia, a re-poll from last week has the race closing. Republican Allen gained 2% and Democrat Kaine gained 1%, making the race 48%-47% for Kaine.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
28-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.17 | 54 | 92.18% | 5 |
04-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.33 | 53 | 75.39% | 4 |
11-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.43 | 53 | 78.01% | 4 |
18-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.76 | 53 | 84.33% | 4 |
25-Aug-12 | 51 | 52.59 | 54 | 95.05% | 5 |
01-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.53% | 4 |
08-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.46% | 4 |
15-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.19 | 53 | 73.42% | 4 |
22-Sep-12 | 48 | 49.83 | 51 | 30.40% | 2 |
29-Sep-12 | 47 | 48.79 | 50 | 9.26% | 1 |
06-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 4.63% | 1 |
13-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.74 | 50 | 8.42% | 1 |
20-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.62 | 50 | 5.51% | 1 |
Link to Senate Probability Chart
Romney needs to take his surge to the states and help the Senate candidates. As I said last week, it's team-building time for Romeny. He needs to start acting like he's already won the Presidency and he's now putting in place his supporters in the Senate.
-PJ
Ping.
Thanks for the Ping, and all the number crunching. Looks like Romney has a shot but it is not as optimistic as it seems listening to the pollsters spouting off on Fox News.
And the Senate continues its regression. Gridlock reigns. You are right, Romney needs to spread out some coat tails in a few Senate races. As I see it, capturing the Senate is more important than getting the White House. (But I doubt Mitt sees it that way.)
I'd like to hope what I'm seeing in the Senate is an anomoly in Rasmussen's polling, since the drop was universal and sudden after the conventions. But somehow, I doubt it. I think the RNC and the Senate reelection committee dropped the ball. Have you seen or heard from McConnell or DeMint at all since the conventions?
-PJ
Capturing SCOTUS is most important.
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Rasmussen polling behind others - maybe you’re already taking this into consideration:
I had the same question a week ago - that it looked like Rasmussen was hedging.
Someone pointed out that Rasmussen is not using his own party-affiliation numbers, but using a hard D+3 model - at least nationally. Don’t know what model he’s using at state levels.
Seems like Suffolk, pulling out of FL, NC and VA almost a week before others entertained conceding those states, may be the accurate model this time around.
But I bet someone here has more detail than what I just wrote ...
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
10/20/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
---|---|---|---|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester | GAIN |
MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
WA | Michael Baumgartner | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
*Open Seat +Incumbent |
Flake in AZ could easily lose, and Brown in MA also.
AKIN might pull off a shocking win in MO.
Ditto for Mack over Nelson in FL.
You won't capture SCOTUS without the White House.
-PJ
We need to give the collapse of the Senate races the highest visibility, so that the RNC can be forced to address it, otherwise Romney will NOT have the control of Congress that he needs to change the course of the nation.
-PJ
Time is running out. Hoping for a knockout punch from Romney Monday night. If he wins, it should be all over - barring the Axe anticipated October surprise.
It ain't over till' it's over. . 17 more days. . May God help us all. .
-PJ
Flake is not gonna lose. A poll showing him losing also had Obama winning the state. BS.
Smith and Linda M need to move up a couple slots for sure.
Yeah, I was thinking that as well. Next edition.
I would assume that the state polls for the Senate contain the same anomaly as the national and state polls for the Presidency. That is, they contain an over-sampling of Democrats.
If so, then many of the closer races will reverse -- if turnout reverts to the 2004 model.
Moreover, Romney's momentum should continue to build -- allowing him to extend a "coattail effect" to many of these races, as well.
Under the circumstances, then, I suspect reality is a little brighter than the current polls suggest.
In any event, after the next debate, it will clearly be time for Romney to address the opportunities in the Senate (Pennsylvania being a perfect example) and for John Cornyn and the RSCC to get their sorry butt in gear.
I would assume that the state polls for the Senate contain the same anomaly as the national and state polls for the Presidency. That is, they contain an over-sampling of Democrats.
If so, then many of the closer races will reverse -- if turnout reverts to the 2004 model.
Moreover, Romney's momentum should continue to build -- allowing him to extend a "coattail effect" to many of these races, as well.
Under the circumstances, then, I suspect reality is a little brighter than the current polls suggest.
In any event, after the next debate, it will clearly be time for Romney to address the opportunities in the Senate (Pennsylvania being a perfect example) and for John Cornyn and the RSCC to get their sorry butt in gear.
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