Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 20, 2012 (Senate Still Stuck)

Rasmussen Reports Polling Data ^ | October 20, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

October 13, 2012
August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone up slightly from 253 to 259 Electoral Votes. Romney remains at 248 (an error last week reported Romney at 245), leaving 31 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 36% chance of winning, up from 28% last week.

This week, Rasmussen polled Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Let's look at each state.

In Florida, Romney sustained his 51% support, while Obama lost 1% from last week. Romney increases his lead in Florida to 51%-46%, keeping Florida Strong for Romney.

In Indiana, this is the first poll taken since early August. Romney gained 3% from the summer and Obama gained 6%. Despite Obama's gains, the state is still Safe for Romney at 54%-41%.

In Massachusetts, both Romney and Obama gained 2% from the last poll at the end of September. Massachusetts is a Safe state for Obama at 57%-42%.

In Missouri, Romney surged in the past two weeks. Romney gaind 5% to Obama's loss of 3%, netting a 54%-43% result. Missouri moves from Leans to Safe for Romney.

In Montana, this is another state that has not had a poll since the end of August. Already Safe for Romney, Romney did lose 2% from August, while Obama gained 7%. Still, the Romney maintains an 11% lead over Obama at 54%-43%.

In Nevada, a re-poll from last week's tie has Romney holding steady at 47%, but Obama gained 3%, making Nevada now 50%-47% for Obama. Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Leans Obama, and Obama regains the 6 Electoral Votes that he lost last week.

In New Hampshire, another re-poll from last week has Obama inching ahead of Romney from last week's 48% tie. Romney gained 1%, but Obama gained 2%, leaving New Hampshire 50%-49% for Obama. New Hampshire remains a Toss-up.

In North Carolina, yet another re-poll from last week has Romney expanding his lead. Romney gains 1% to 52%, while Obama slips back to September levels at 46%. North Carolina moves to Strong for Romney.

In Ohio, a re-poll from last week shows Obama maintaining a 1% lead as each candidate gains 1% from last week. The 49%-48% lead for Obama keeps Ohio a Toss-up.

In Virginia, the third consecutive week of polling has Romney finally gaining 1% from prior polls, while Obama sustains his prior level. Romney now leads by 3% at 50%-47%. Virginia remains a Lean for Romney.

In Washington, Romney gained 1% from two weeks ago, but Obama gained 3%. Washington remains Safe for Obama at 55%-42%

In Wisconsin, a re-poll from last week has each candidate back-sliding 1% from last week to 50%-48% for Obama. Wisconsin remains a Lean for Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Colorado: No Poll (R +1%)
• Connecticut: No Poll (R -6%)
• Florida: +1% (R +5%)
• Georgia: Never Polled (R +5.2%) - 2008 result
• Iowa: No Poll (R -2%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -7%)
• Missouri: +8% (R +11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Montana: -9% (R +8%) - Moves back into the margin of error
• Nevada: -3% (R -3%)
• New Hampshire: -1% (R -1%)
• North Carolina: +3% (R +6%)
• Ohio: +0% (R -1%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -5%)
• Virginia: +1% (R +3%)
• Wisconsin: +0% (R -2%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 259								Romney - 248
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Iowa	9	Colorado	13	Virginia	29	Florida	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan	6	Nevada	4	New Hampshire			16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania	10	Wisconsin	18	Ohio			15	North Carolina	11	Arizona
4	Hawaii											6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											10	Missouri
12	Washington											9	South Carolina
												3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		22		31		13		60		175

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%
25-Aug-12	223	252.39	281	21.52%
01-Sep-12	223	252.39	281	22.08%
08-Sep-12	224	252.45	281	21.66%
15-Sep-12	221	249.88	278	17.54%
22-Sep-12	225	252.98	278	20.34%
29-Sep-12	225	252.04	277	19.04%
06-Oct-12	225	253.31	279	21.00%
13-Oct-12	233	258.74	283	27.69%
20-Oct-12	242	264.04	285	35.65%

Link to Probability Chart

And over in the Senate...

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has shown no signs of rebounding from the autumn collapse. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint? A news story today shows that the Republican National Committee has $83 million in bank. When are they going to spend that money to regain the Senate?

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 5.5% for Republicans taking over.

Since the last report, Rasmussen polled Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia Senate races.

In Florida, a re-poll from last week has the race closing slightly. Republican Mack gained 2% and Democrat Nelson lost 4%, but Nelson is still leading 48%-43%.

In Indiana, this is the first poll since early August. Republican Mourdock gained 5% and Democrat Donnelly gained 2%, but Mourdock is holding onto a 47%-42% lead.

In Michigan, Republican Hoekstra gained 2% from a poll three weeks ago, and Democrat Stabenow lost 2% from three weeks ago, but Stabenow still holds a commanding 51%-39% lead.

In Missouri, Democrat McCaskill is holding stead from two weeks ago at 51%. Republican Akin lost 2% to 43%.

In Montana, this is the first poll since late August when Republican Rehberg was leading Democrat Tester 47%-43%. The race is now tied at 48%.

In Nevada, a re-poll from last week shows Republican Heller pulling away from Democrat Berkley. Heller gained 2% and Berkley lost 2%, making the race now 50%-43% for Republicans.

In Ohio, a re-poll from last week has the Democrat Brown gaining 2% and Republican Mandel losing 2%. The race is now 49%-44% for Brown.

In Virginia, a re-poll from last week has the race closing. Republican Allen gained 2% and Democrat Kaine gained 1%, making the race 48%-47% for Kaine.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Connecticut 2: No Poll (R -5%)
• Florida 2: +6% (R -5%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Indiana 2: +3 (R +5%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R -2%)
• Missouri 2: -2% (R -8%)
• Montana 2: -4% (R +0%)
• Nevada 1: +4% (R +7%)
• Ohio 1: -4% (R -5%)
• Rhode Island 2: Never Polled (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: Never Polled (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +1% (R -1%)
• Wisconsin 2: No Poll (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4
25-Aug-12	51	52.59	54	95.05%	5
01-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.53%	4
08-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.46%	4
15-Sep-12	50	51.19	53	73.42%	4
22-Sep-12	48	49.83	51	30.40%	2
29-Sep-12	47	48.79	50	9.26%	1
06-Oct-12	47	48.49	50	4.63%	1
13-Oct-12	47	48.74	50	8.42%	1
20-Oct-12	47	48.62	50	5.51%	1

Link to Senate Probability Chart

[Political Junkie Too]

Time is running out.

Romney needs to take his surge to the states and help the Senate candidates. As I said last week, it's team-building time for Romeny. He needs to start acting like he's already won the Presidency and he's now putting in place his supporters in the Senate.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

[newheart]

Thanks for the Ping, and all the number crunching. Looks like Romney has a shot but it is not as optimistic as it seems listening to the pollsters spouting off on Fox News.

And the Senate continues its regression. Gridlock reigns. You are right, Romney needs to spread out some coat tails in a few Senate races. As I see it, capturing the Senate is more important than getting the White House. (But I doubt Mitt sees it that way.)

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm still optimistic about Romney. I expect the polls next week to break his way. I'm surprised that Rasmussen is tracking behind the other polls. I'm going to look at that tonight.

I'd like to hope what I'm seeing in the Senate is an anomoly in Rasmussen's polling, since the drop was universal and sudden after the conventions. But somehow, I doubt it. I think the RNC and the Senate reelection committee dropped the ball. Have you seen or heard from McConnell or DeMint at all since the conventions?

-PJ

[Paladin2]

As I see it, capturing the Senate is more important than getting the White House. (But I doubt Mitt sees it that way.)

Capturing SCOTUS is most important.

[musicman]

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[HannibalHamlinJr]

Rasmussen polling behind others - maybe you’re already taking this into consideration:

I had the same question a week ago - that it looked like Rasmussen was hedging.

Someone pointed out that Rasmussen is not using his own party-affiliation numbers, but using a hard D+3 model - at least nationally. Don’t know what model he’s using at state levels.

Seems like Suffolk, pulling out of FL, NC and VA almost a week before others entertained conceding those states, may be the accurate model this time around.

But I bet someone here has more detail than what I just wrote ...

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings might change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

 

10/20/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[onyx]

Flake in AZ could easily lose, and Brown in MA also.

AKIN might pull off a shocking win in MO.

Ditto for Mack over Nelson in FL.

[Political Junkie Too]

...capturing the Senate is more important than getting the White House.

You won't capture SCOTUS without the White House.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I really wish you mods would be consistent. Last week, you left my article in Front Page. This week, you removed it.

We need to give the collapse of the Senate races the highest visibility, so that the RNC can be forced to address it, otherwise Romney will NOT have the control of Congress that he needs to change the course of the nation.

-PJ

[Art in Idaho]

Thanks for posting this. Excellent summary.

Time is running out. Hoping for a knockout punch from Romney Monday night. If he wins, it should be all over - barring the Axe anticipated October surprise.

It ain't over till' it's over. . 17 more days. . May God help us all. .

[Political Junkie Too]

Bump for visibility.

-PJ

[Impy]

Flake is not gonna lose. A poll showing him losing also had Obama winning the state. BS.

[Impy]

Smith and Linda M need to move up a couple slots for sure.

[randita]

Yeah, I was thinking that as well. Next edition.

[okie01]

Romney needs to take his surge to the states and help the Senate candidates.

I would assume that the state polls for the Senate contain the same anomaly as the national and state polls for the Presidency. That is, they contain an over-sampling of Democrats.

If so, then many of the closer races will reverse -- if turnout reverts to the 2004 model.

Moreover, Romney's momentum should continue to build -- allowing him to extend a "coattail effect" to many of these races, as well.

Under the circumstances, then, I suspect reality is a little brighter than the current polls suggest.

In any event, after the next debate, it will clearly be time for Romney to address the opportunities in the Senate (Pennsylvania being a perfect example) and for John Cornyn and the RSCC to get their sorry butt in gear.

[okie01]

Romney needs to take his surge to the states and help the Senate candidates.

I would assume that the state polls for the Senate contain the same anomaly as the national and state polls for the Presidency. That is, they contain an over-sampling of Democrats.

If so, then many of the closer races will reverse -- if turnout reverts to the 2004 model.

Moreover, Romney's momentum should continue to build -- allowing him to extend a "coattail effect" to many of these races, as well.

Under the circumstances, then, I suspect reality is a little brighter than the current polls suggest.

In any event, after the next debate, it will clearly be time for Romney to address the opportunities in the Senate (Pennsylvania being a perfect example) and for John Cornyn and the RSCC to get their sorry butt in gear.