Posted on 08/27/2012 6:47:45 AM PDT by CaptainK
It's just that this election IS the most important of our lives, and it is terrifying to think of what Obama could do to our Republic if he's given another four years to implement his "vision".
May God have mercy on ALL of us, and give wisdom to all those those who might be thinking of voting for, or (in my mind almost as bad) NOT voting against, a man who thinks Government, not God, is the benevolent protector of our rights and freedoms.
It's a weekend poll, and Romney hasn't been spending much money. He has more in the bank. The Republican superpacs have piles of dry powder, and they have been holding their fire, too. To reiterate:
"Mr. Obama’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee ended July with $126.9 million left in the bank, a notable disadvantage for an incumbent president compared to Mr. Romney’s $185.9 million, including money stocked away by the national GOP. Those numbers could prove daunting for Mr. Obama because Mr. Romney can’t spend much of his money until he officially clinches his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention next week. He then is expected to dramatically up his spending. Federal election law prohibits candidates from spending money raised for the general election until they are officially a major party nominee."
Thank you for not panicking.
Within the MOE, so I think it’s an outlier from the middle where I think this race is.
It’s a dead heat.
The real danger for Romney are those often over-looked numbers: 4% other and 5% undecided. The 4% other, in my view, are probably in the conservative-ish fold, since Contitution and Libertarians are really the only other moderately known parties. As one of those in the “other” category, I’ve been an independent conservative since after McCain’s 2008 fiasco. Romney has done far more since winning the nomination to push me away than to draw me in. His new “RomneyCare” initiative is the latest.
If Morris is right and the 5% undecided breaks mostly for Romney, then he’s golden, but another view of that says Morris’ theory is only right if Romney is leading Obama when both are under 50%.
Finally, Rasmussen uses only “likely voters.” Republicans easily forget that a “registered voter” CAN vote. After all, they ARE registered. They just need some precinct chair to take them by the hand and march them to the polling place. Without a good republican ground game they won’t vote. With a good ground game he could pull this out.
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Ras did this so that he can show a bigger bounce after the convention for Romney
The just released WAPO poll is of mostly ADULTS, wildly inaccurate and more favorable to Dems. Plus they oversampled Dems by a huge margin once again.
None of it makes a bit of sense and as even Rasmussen says on his site it is far better to look at his results on a weekly basis rather than a daily basis in order to get a more accurate sense of where the race is at this time.
We import a lot of them and to many are clueless but willing to sellout for some g’mint “help”
Even if the good guys win what do we do with all these freeloading sadsacks?
We can’t expect them to work for their keep. That would be un-anti-american.
Many have backaches and anxiety problems!
LLS
Statistical noise, that’s all.
Y’all quit being so reactive to a single day outlier. Yes, it’s appalling that even 30% of respondents can give Ø any level of approval, but this isn’t the real trend.
No it is time to discuss what the women vote it doing to America. If it is the vote we must use to save this nation, we need to discuss the largest voting pool and their voting habits. If women did not vote. This country would not have had Bill Clinton or Barry Obama.
“none of these pollsters are without fault”
Exactly. Would anyone here bet significant money on an outcome based on any poll results? If you look at the MOE on many of these polls, there is marked volatility outside the MOE. Either the opinions of the electorate bounce around like ping pong balls, or these polls are very susceptible to daily fluctuation.
Relax.
The weekend polling is inaccurate due to the fact that the producers have to work on the weekends to pay their bills because all of the money EARNED during the regular work week has been REDISTRIBUTED to those who sit at home answering the phone while laughing at the stupidity of those who work.
Does that mean you're in favor of pollsters manipulating their polls?
For me, I'd like Rasmussen to be absolutely meticulous straight-up about what his poll says. In the same way I don't want the weather man to tell me it's gonna be nice weather just so I'll feel good, I want a pollster to say nothing more or less than what they actually find.
Oh no! I don’t agree with manipulation of polls but this is what I think Ras is doing
Hold on there.... In 2008, third Parties secured 1.4%. With Gary Johnson in the Race, he alone could get 3% of the vote. He has been a Libertarian favorite for sometime. I have seen where Johnson pulls more away from Obama than Romney because of his anti-war position.
I am predicting the winner will be elected by a plurality.
What about the electoral votes? I read that Obama is going to rack those up way over Romney.
I agree that daily reporting is meaningless. Statistical fluctuation will give some reports that are distressing (like today’s), only to see a reversal a few days later. The big question: Knowing full well that daily reporting may lead to inaccurate conclusions, why doesn’t Rasmussen, using a rolling average over 7 days, report weekly instead of daily?
But...Obama wasn’t the incumbent in 2008. Essentially, he was the challenger running against Bush. With Obama as the incumbent the tables will turn in this election and he won’t get the majority of undecided voters.
“Maybe I’ve been wrong about American voters. I’ve just assumed they’re just a dumbed-down, disinterested, unaware lot. Perhaps a socialist path is truly what they want. They’ve certainly had plenty of time to see first-hand what Obama has done to this once-great land.
But apparently they’re liking what they’re seeing.”
Scott, what we are seeing is the country literally “dividing”, as in pre-Civil-War days.
On one side are the “traditionalist Americans” who embrace the “old ways” (isn’t it “unnerving” that the bedrock values on which America and western civilization were constructed are now viewed by many as old and obsolete?).
Across this “Great Divide” are “the new plantationers”, who would willingly surrender [what the traditionalists consider to be] their “freedom” for the security of entitlements and the “protection” of government. They inherently understand that the values of the traditionalists are diametrically opposed to theirs, and view attempts by those of the right to protect such values as “racist”, “xenophobic”, “discriminatory”, etc.
Both sides are entrenched in their positions and increasingly view “compromise” as impossible.
But the determining factor in this struggle will become demographics. Of the two “opposed groups” above, what, by and large, is the ethnicity of the “traditionalists”? And what is that of the “new plantationers”?
Which group is in “demographic decline”, and which is growing larger?
This is going to be a very close election, and the final results will illustrate how deeply divided the nation has become.
If Romney wins, there will be little or no “honeymoon”, particularly if the Republicans keep a large majority of the House and eke out a bare majority in the Senate. It will be a struggle from the inauguration forth. Faced with the prospect of a rollback of Obammunism, I expect the ‘rats to go into “full Wisconsin mode” to prevent government from functioning at traditional levels.
And they (the ‘rats) will have the full support of an ever-growing-larger cohort of Americans. Because — as you wrote above — they “like what they’re seeing” with Obama...
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