Within the MOE, so I think it’s an outlier from the middle where I think this race is.
It’s a dead heat.
The real danger for Romney are those often over-looked numbers: 4% other and 5% undecided. The 4% other, in my view, are probably in the conservative-ish fold, since Contitution and Libertarians are really the only other moderately known parties. As one of those in the “other” category, I’ve been an independent conservative since after McCain’s 2008 fiasco. Romney has done far more since winning the nomination to push me away than to draw me in. His new “RomneyCare” initiative is the latest.
If Morris is right and the 5% undecided breaks mostly for Romney, then he’s golden, but another view of that says Morris’ theory is only right if Romney is leading Obama when both are under 50%.
Finally, Rasmussen uses only “likely voters.” Republicans easily forget that a “registered voter” CAN vote. After all, they ARE registered. They just need some precinct chair to take them by the hand and march them to the polling place. Without a good republican ground game they won’t vote. With a good ground game he could pull this out.
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I was wondering if anyone else would notice the other canddiate numbers. It would be interesting to see what they were in 2008.