Skip to comments.Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?
Posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:44 AM PDT by mandaladon
My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organizations strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample.
The latest one from Pew poll is a shining example of why our side gets so frustrated with polls. Every time a Pew poll comes out, the numbers appear out of whack. Of course if you are a number-cruncher and look to the cross-tabs, the results are clearly flawed. Pew, to its credit, tells us its history since 1988. Basically in 1988 they did a good job, calling the race almost perfectly, possibly even overestimating Bush support by 0.4% (keep in mind they round so 50-42 could be 7.6%). But since then, their results have been downhill.
Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the final poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.
October 1988 Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)
Late October 1992 Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)
November 1996 Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)
November 2000 Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)
November 2004 Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)
November 2008 Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
They always do until a week or so before the election so they can say “voters broke for” and save their reputation.
You need but look at what team Obama is currently doing to know who is really leading.
Why do Democrats, blacks and minorites fight so vehemently against voter ID with pictures? One is cheating before the election; the other is cheating during the election.
Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy...
Remember most pollsters are part of the narrative and are commissioned by the candidates.
Wonder why "internal polls" cost so much and we never get to see them? It's because the truth would change the narrative.
They have to rig the polls so that when they steal the election through electronic voting machine hacks and other election fraud, people will not be surprised that Obama “won.”
If we really knew how wide the gap is between the majority in this country who despise Obama and his administration and his senseless supporters, I would bet we’d be amazed at how very disliked the commie in the White House truly is.
When’s the last time you (and most conservatives) picked up the phone when a pollster/unknown caller was on the other end? I avoid those calls like the plague and am guessing most other conservatives do too. Libs don’t have much better to do than inaccurately influence polls so they answer... :)
I suspect it’s harder to get Republicans to participate in polls. Pollsters always call me at one of two times: 1) when I’m getting ready to leave for work, or 2) when my family is sitting down to a meal. Since many liberals neither work nor spend much time with their families, it’s not hard to see why their opinions might be overrepresented.
There are many studies which suggest that having MSM on your side is worth about five percentage points. By skewing their polls in one direction major MSM outlets are attempting to create bandwagons.
I just did and it was GREAT fun.
After giving him very spirited answers to three questions he hung up on me.
I doubt that the Dems will be calling me again.
“They don’t care they just want Zero to win. “
Yes, while that’s true, I could make the case that by cooking the numbers, they give the average RAT voter ( you know the ones with single digit I.Q.s) a false sense of security about Obama winning re-election and so they stay home, because besides being stupid, they are lazy!
I maintain the Obama campaign will use this card BEFORE the election to scare the independent votes to go with “The Won”.
Republicans/conservatives/libertarians tend to have lives, and tend to spend their time living their lives, and not sitting by the telephone with the shades drawn waiting for a call like Democrats do.
Democrat voter registration is down, especially for blacks. Independents are on the rise. There’s approx. 10% that are undecided. Undecideds historically vote against incumbents which portends a landslide for Romney.
Things will get worse for Obama because he has chosen to get nasty so his personal image will be degraded.
On another thread, a FReeper said that he was seeing tons of Obama ads on Bain/outsourcing in Western Washington. (BTW, Western WA is the blue side of the state.) Should already be in the bag for Obama.
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