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Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?
National Review ^ | 14 Jul 2012 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:44 AM PDT by mandaladon

My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organization’s strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample.

The latest one from Pew poll is a shining example of why our side gets so frustrated with polls. Every time a Pew poll comes out, the numbers appear out of whack. Of course if you are a number-cruncher and look to the cross-tabs, the results are clearly flawed. Pew, to its credit, tells us its history since 1988. Basically in 1988 they did a good job, calling the race almost perfectly, possibly even overestimating Bush support by 0.4% (keep in mind they round so 50-42 could be 7.6%). But since then, their results have been downhill.

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction — always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.

October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)

Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)

November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)

November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)

November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)

November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; corruption; democrats; electionfraud; elections; fraud; obama; polls; romney
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After being wrong in the same direction so consistently, wouldn’t you think that Pew might attempt to adjust their sampling techniques to adjust their techniques to avoid under-sampling Republican voters? Keep in mind the polls I have highlighted are the last polls in the race. I find it interesting that not one of their poll statisticians came out and said, ‘Boss, these results look whacked out because the electorate is going to be more than 24 percent Republican, and self-identified Democrats aren’t going to outpace Republicans by 9 percentage points.’ The Democrats couldn’t even reach that margin in 2008 . . . and you wonder why so many people think Obama is going to win. .......................They don't care they just want Zero to win.
1 posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:54 AM PDT by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon

They always do until a week or so before the election so they can say “voters broke for” and save their reputation.

You need but look at what team Obama is currently doing to know who is really leading.


2 posted on 07/14/2012 8:02:29 AM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: mandaladon

Why do Democrats, blacks and minorites fight so vehemently against voter ID with pictures? One is cheating before the election; the other is cheating during the election.


3 posted on 07/14/2012 8:02:47 AM PDT by Gaffer (NOVEMBER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: mandaladon
Polls are mostly sold to Media outlets. If the Polls aren't close people will pay less attention to the BoobTube and as a result Ad revenues will drop. Sooooo to keep the idiots watching the polls need to be close.

Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy...

4 posted on 07/14/2012 8:03:57 AM PDT by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: mandaladon
if they don't keep the narrative a "horse race" no one will tune in to their broadcasts or click their links. Read the internals, factor in demographic and trends and factor for whatever variables need to be used to get the closest "guess."

Remember most pollsters are part of the narrative and are commissioned by the candidates.

Wonder why "internal polls" cost so much and we never get to see them? It's because the truth would change the narrative.

5 posted on 07/14/2012 8:07:25 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: mandaladon
They are setting the stage for the "The election was stolen" race riots when Ubama loses.
6 posted on 07/14/2012 8:11:17 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: mandaladon
So I ask are the people at Pew insane or just biased?

Yes, yes.
7 posted on 07/14/2012 8:13:35 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Mad Dawgg
“Polls are mostly sold to Media outlets. If the Polls aren't close people will pay less attention to the BoobTube and as a result Ad revenues will drop. Sooooo to keep the idiots watching the polls need to be close.
Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy...” Bing bing bing bing bing! We have a winner! Give the Mad Dawgg as cigar!
Rasmussen is one of the biggest offenders of this kind.
Here's the question NONE of these people who are telling us this race is close can answer: Since Obama is not winning a single group he lost last time and he is not doing better with ANY group he won last time - not even Blacks- how can he even be close?
The answer is they over sample Democrats and make believe there is no enthusiasm gap.
8 posted on 07/14/2012 8:14:44 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: mandaladon

They have to rig the polls so that when they steal the election through electronic voting machine hacks and other election fraud, people will not be surprised that Obama “won.”

If we really knew how wide the gap is between the majority in this country who despise Obama and his administration and his senseless supporters, I would bet we’d be amazed at how very disliked the commie in the White House truly is.


9 posted on 07/14/2012 8:14:52 AM PDT by WXRGina (Further up and further in!)
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To: mandaladon

When’s the last time you (and most conservatives) picked up the phone when a pollster/unknown caller was on the other end? I avoid those calls like the plague and am guessing most other conservatives do too. Libs don’t have much better to do than inaccurately influence polls so they answer... :)


10 posted on 07/14/2012 8:18:51 AM PDT by meangene (Bring on more of that "crony capitalism"...please!)
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To: mandaladon

I suspect it’s harder to get Republicans to participate in polls. Pollsters always call me at one of two times: 1) when I’m getting ready to leave for work, or 2) when my family is sitting down to a meal. Since many liberals neither work nor spend much time with their families, it’s not hard to see why their opinions might be overrepresented.


11 posted on 07/14/2012 8:18:57 AM PDT by July4 (Remember the price paid for your freedom.)
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To: mandaladon

There are many studies which suggest that having MSM on your side is worth about five percentage points. By skewing their polls in one direction major MSM outlets are attempting to create bandwagons.


12 posted on 07/14/2012 8:19:32 AM PDT by monocle
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To: meangene

I just did and it was GREAT fun.

After giving him very spirited answers to three questions he hung up on me.

I doubt that the Dems will be calling me again.


13 posted on 07/14/2012 8:26:22 AM PDT by COUNTrecount (Barry...above his poi grade.)
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To: mandaladon

“They don’t care they just want Zero to win. “

Yes, while that’s true, I could make the case that by cooking the numbers, they give the average RAT voter ( you know the ones with single digit I.Q.s) a false sense of security about Obama winning re-election and so they stay home, because besides being stupid, they are lazy!


14 posted on 07/14/2012 8:26:49 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: mandaladon
This is why.
15 posted on 07/14/2012 8:28:03 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Borg Zombies walk around groaning "Commmppuutteerrrrssss......Commmppuutteerrrrssss......")
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Why wait for after the election?!?

I maintain the Obama campaign will use this card BEFORE the election to scare the independent votes to go with “The Won”.

16 posted on 07/14/2012 8:28:08 AM PDT by mneville (Scorched Earth in September)
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To: mandaladon

Republicans/conservatives/libertarians tend to have lives, and tend to spend their time living their lives, and not sitting by the telephone with the shades drawn waiting for a call like Democrats do.


17 posted on 07/14/2012 8:39:49 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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18 posted on 07/14/2012 8:40:23 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: mandaladon

Democrat voter registration is down, especially for blacks. Independents are on the rise. There’s approx. 10% that are undecided. Undecideds historically vote against incumbents which portends a landslide for Romney.

Things will get worse for Obama because he has chosen to get nasty so his personal image will be degraded.


19 posted on 07/14/2012 8:43:33 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: cableguymn
You need but look at what team Obama is currently doing to know who is really leading.

On another thread, a FReeper said that he was seeing tons of Obama ads on Bain/outsourcing in Western Washington. (BTW, Western WA is the blue side of the state.) Should already be in the bag for Obama.

20 posted on 07/14/2012 8:44:27 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: mandaladon

Three reasons:
1) To prop up the democratic doners and give them a reason to pour more money to the democrats
2) To cover up the rampant cheating in urban precincts. By being on the high end of the polls, they can say that any result is within the bracket of polling.


21 posted on 07/14/2012 8:52:17 AM PDT by jimmygrace
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To: mandaladon

Accurately sampling discourages liberal voters from turning out while inaccurately sampling discourages conservatives. Socialists aren’t particularly big fans of democracy, so... what’s the harm?


22 posted on 07/14/2012 8:52:25 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: mandaladon

It is manufactured propaganda intended to discourage our side.


23 posted on 07/14/2012 8:54:35 AM PDT by RatRipper (Obama, YOU LIE!!! . . .again and again and again and again, ad infinitum. . . .)
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To: mandaladon

NBC has been using a +16 Dem Advantage in some of it’s recent polling, to show Obama up by just 4 in some states.

ABC just used a +8 Dem advantage to show Obama/Romney TIED in it’s polling last week.

Both are justifying it based on “Democrat Enthusiasm”.

But, as a Dem Pollster was quoted after the Wisconsin Recall Debacle, “We underestimated the amount of voter anger out there.”


24 posted on 07/14/2012 8:56:31 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Mad Dawgg

“Do you have time for a political survey?” Part of the bias is toward those who do not work, those who have 15 minutes generally in the middle of the day to answer questions. When I get a call and I’m at work, the answer is “No”. If I’m at home, I choose to contribute to give them a conservative data point. But the stay at home never working mothers, those on unemployment and many retirees and faux disabled can answer these surveys all day long.


25 posted on 07/14/2012 8:58:27 AM PDT by tbw2
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To: mandaladon

There is no doubt that partisans manipulate polls to influence the electorate. Therefore, it’s not unlikely that the pollsters themselves are being lobbied to provide manipulated results.

However, the party affiliation numbers appear to me to be a result of the method used to determine party affiliation.

Rasmussen, I believe, uses current survey results simply asking people to self-identify at any given point in a campaign. Since people adjust their self-identification that should be more important than how registration or census or historic trends indicate.

Going to records that say Joe Smith registered as a democrat in 1980 is absolutely useless in determining where Joe Smith stands today. Better to poll Joe Smith and ask simply: Do you see yourself as a: democrat, republican, or independent? Your info is then current.


26 posted on 07/14/2012 9:00:13 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: mandaladon

If you’re watching a football game and the score is 40-0 in the fourth quarter, do you still watch it.

The fraudulent media polls can and do manipulate numbers to prevent anything like that happening during ‘their game’.


27 posted on 07/14/2012 9:08:46 AM PDT by RetSignman
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To: jimmygrace

Your response is excellent. Did you forget reason No. 3? You only had two reasons.

I completely agree that if they didn’t fudge the polls those $1 million campaign contributions to Obama would stop. No one would donate money to what is a slam-dunk losing proposition. It’s all about the benjamins. But isn’t it always?


28 posted on 07/14/2012 9:37:24 AM PDT by Auntie Mame (Fear not tomorrow. God is already there.)
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To: mandaladon

to depress the conservative vote


29 posted on 07/14/2012 9:39:23 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch ( if you love, you will not condemn, and if you condemn, you cannot love)
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To: mandaladon
November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

According to:

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days

The final Pew poll had Obama leading by 6%. Obama won by 7.2%.

30 posted on 07/14/2012 9:43:44 AM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: mandaladon

Some polls from July 2004:

CBS News (462 RV), 6-Jul Kerry +5

NBC News (504 RV) 6-Jul Kerry +11

CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV) 8-Jul Kerry +4

Dem Corps* (1,010 LV) 10-Jul Kerry +5

CBS/NYT (823 RV) 7/11-7/15 Kerry +5

IBD/TIPP (842 RV) 7/12-7/17 Kerry +3

LA Times (1,529 RV) 7/17-7/21 Kerry +2

NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV) 7/18-7/20 Kerry +1

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV) 7/18-7/22 Kerry +3

CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV) 7/19-7/21 Kerry +2

IBD/TIPP (883 RV) 7/19-7/24 Kerry +3

Fox News (767 LV) 7/20-7/21 Kerry +1


31 posted on 07/14/2012 9:45:37 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: mandaladon
Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

They must like the taste of ass.

32 posted on 07/14/2012 9:47:05 AM PDT by dragonblustar (Allah Ain't So Akbar!)
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To: meangene

I immediately hang up without saying a word as soon as they tell me who they are.


33 posted on 07/14/2012 9:52:43 AM PDT by sheana
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To: SaxxonWoods
The final Pew poll in 2004 had Bush winning among likely voters.


34 posted on 07/14/2012 10:07:24 AM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: mandaladon
"Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?"

To excite the glass chewers...


35 posted on 07/14/2012 11:14:21 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: sportutegrl
"On another thread, a FReeper said that he was seeing tons of Obama ads on Bain/outsourcing in Western Washington. (BTW, Western WA is the blue side of the state.) Should already be in the bag for Obama."

Which proves that Messina is going to simply checkmark his election clipboard and walk right off the cliff with the other lead lemmings Axelrot and Jar-Jar Jarrett, so he can't be blamed for Bobo's loss...

"Look, I did everything that we agreed to! I ran Bain ads in a blue state in July and we were out of money by October! Don't blame me we got pwned..."

36 posted on 07/14/2012 11:24:09 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: mandaladon; All
Political science studies show that a small but significant percentage of voters want to vote for a “winner”. Consistently showing Democrats to be ahead in the polls is an easy way to cheat for liberals. It is meant entirely to increase the vote totals for Democrats.
37 posted on 07/14/2012 11:46:38 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

Interesting perspective. Never though of it that way, but, I can see it now. Thanks!


38 posted on 07/14/2012 1:17:01 PM PDT by cpa4you (CPA4YOU)
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To: mandaladon

To subconciously manipulate. Notice how often so-called news is reported as “many say” or “some think” and then go on to spew their talking points.


39 posted on 07/14/2012 1:19:07 PM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: mandaladon

The fact is, more Democrats receive handouts. That also means that they are more likely to be available to the pollers who are trying to contact them.

It’s kind of like the unemployment numbers. They are calculated from questionaires sent out to a very small sample of people (0.02% of the population). So, who’s more likely to respond? The long term unemployed who are suffering from depression because they have been out of work so long that they are no longer receiving benefits or people in a better mood?


40 posted on 07/14/2012 2:56:30 PM PDT by Brown Deer (Pray for 0bama. Psalm 109:8)
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To: July4
Since many liberals neither work nor spend much time with their families, it’s not hard to see why their opinions might be overrepresented.

You keep right on telling yourself those things.

41 posted on 07/14/2012 2:58:20 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: All


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42 posted on 07/14/2012 2:58:20 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: mandaladon

Oh! I know!!
It makes Zero look better.
They hope the fake “poll” results will engender a bandwagon effect.

And they’re right.

Sadly.


43 posted on 07/14/2012 3:39:07 PM PDT by kinsman redeemer (The real enemy seeks to devour what is good.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Hope so.


44 posted on 07/14/2012 3:50:18 PM PDT by freedomtrail (EEOC- Eventual Elimination Of Caucasians)
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To: freedomtrail
Upon further reflection, I think they are doing it to provide cover for the massive Democrat election fraud that is on tap.
45 posted on 07/14/2012 4:09:30 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: mandaladon
Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

DUH...

46 posted on 07/14/2012 4:21:18 PM PDT by LUV W (Never forget...WE have THEM surrounded! ~ Rush Limbaugh)
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To: mandaladon

Pollster called me up the other night, I kept asking “which one is the democrat” and then when they said I said “I am voting for them”.

I hold pollsters in contempt so much I give them nothing but garbage data.


47 posted on 07/14/2012 4:25:20 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: mandaladon
Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

I'm hoping that's a rhetorical question.

48 posted on 07/14/2012 4:31:06 PM PDT by upchuck ("Definition of 'racist:' someone that is winning an argument with a liberal." ~ Peter Brimelow)
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To: mandaladon

They are just adjusting for voter fraud. Dems tend to vote more than one.


49 posted on 07/14/2012 4:38:05 PM PDT by Diggity
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To: mandaladon

Polls have been skewed for a long time.

I remember the polls for Reagan & Carter as a dead heat until the very end. When I saw the cover of Newsweek the week of the election, it looked like it would be a close race. I never thought Reagan would win in a landside.

Cover of Newsweek Nov. 3, 1980: http://www.tias.com/11804/PictPage/1922502015.html


50 posted on 07/14/2012 4:41:43 PM PDT by Atlantan
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