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Top 10 most likely GOP Senate pick-ups
humanevents.com ^

Posted on 07/09/2012 11:54:58 AM PDT by tsowellfan

Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowe’s seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win...

(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut; US: Florida; US: Michigan; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: Nebraska; US: New Mexico; US: North Dakota; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 112th; election2012; georgeallen2012; senate; senate2012; va2012
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1 posted on 07/09/2012 11:54:59 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: tsowellfan

We have an outside chance of picking up Pennsylvania as well. Bob Casey, Jr. is as dumb as a box of rocks and banking on his Daddy’s famous name to drag him over the finish line.


2 posted on 07/09/2012 12:00:55 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: tsowellfan

Don’t under estimate Minnesota...

We’re not as blue as we use to be. Yes, Dayton is at the top. But the Republicans control our house and senate.

We just have to keep an eye on Mark Richie..


3 posted on 07/09/2012 12:04:05 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: tsowellfan

I think Stabenow is done but it has nothing at all to do with Romney. If anything Romney is probably a greater danger than help in that race.


4 posted on 07/09/2012 12:04:25 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Vigilanteman

Before we even start counting chickens we better learn which states/districts have their votes being counted by the Soros owned Spanish company. The number is significant and dangerous.


5 posted on 07/09/2012 12:08:30 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: tsowellfan

Are they really going to take Fauxcahontas over Brown in Massachusetts?


6 posted on 07/09/2012 12:09:10 PM PDT by Twotone (Marte Et Clypeo)
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To: tsowellfan

Gotta get my eyes adjusted.

I thought the title was, “Top 10 most likely GOP pick-up lines”...


7 posted on 07/09/2012 12:10:03 PM PDT by Old Sarge (We are now officially over the precipice, we just havent struck the ground yet)
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To: firebrand; randita

Ping


8 posted on 07/09/2012 12:11:08 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: Vigilanteman
Casey Jr is one of the enemy's best tricks ... right next to o'zero.

No one has seen him nor heard him, yet the name (like a dead rat still on the roll, still votin') is like any of a number of impregnated commercial jingles ... The two notes of "buy Mennon", or "I'd like to teach the world to sing" = Coke ... you get the idea.

Casey?, Yeah, sure .. he's a good guy .. and they pull the lever.

9 posted on 07/09/2012 12:11:43 PM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: tsowellfan

OK, We presently need to take 3 Seats away from the Dems to take over the Senate. Let’s say we lose Snowe’s seat in Maine and Heller’s seat in NV; and, I believe Scott Brown will hold his seat in MA. That means we need to pick up five other seats from the Dems. I am pretty confident that we will do that in Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and Florida. And, it is very possible that we will take New Mexico and Wisconsin, but will be close. And don’t forget....

We need a Pubbie in the Vice President’s Chair to break a tie since it could be 50/50 in the Senate.


10 posted on 07/09/2012 12:16:32 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Twotone

I think Scott Brown will keep his seat.


11 posted on 07/09/2012 12:17:06 PM PDT by Reagan69 (I supported Sarah Palin and all I got was a lousy DVD !)
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To: cripplecreek

Can one assume, cripplecreek, that you do NOT think Romney will carry his home state of Michigan?


12 posted on 07/09/2012 12:18:05 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Reagan69

Vacationing Mitt better get on the stick - and quick.

If he loses, we will lose any hope of the senate.


13 posted on 07/09/2012 12:18:35 PM PDT by Reagan69 (I supported Sarah Palin and all I got was a lousy DVD !)
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To: Old Sarge
“Top 10 most likely GOP pick-up lines”...

This topic might make for a very funny thread.

14 posted on 07/09/2012 12:18:57 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Heller’s seat in NV

Heller should fare OK. I'm less worried about that one than Indiana. It was a great accomplishment to take down Lugar, but it makes that race a whole lot more competitive than before.

15 posted on 07/09/2012 12:19:01 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: tsowellfan

Raese in WV seems to be going with the Manchin equals Obama strategy. That’s a loser. Most folks around here aren’t going to vote for Obama. Manchin on the other hand has a family that’s been involved in politics and other than wasting money on state elections, didn’t have any major issues.

On the other hand there’s a grassroots issue that the tightly controlled WV GOP won’t touch. The educational system in the state has major problems. Manchin and the governor to there discredit were involved.

There’s a lot of pent up anger in the state over education. Raese, however, doesn’t seem to have a clue. It’s probably the only issue that Manchin can’t avoid.


16 posted on 07/09/2012 12:19:09 PM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: MHGinTN

we better learn which states/districts have their votes being counted by the Soros owned Spanish company.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Is there anything we can do about this?


17 posted on 07/09/2012 12:19:21 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Twotone

Are they really going to take Fauxcahontas over Brown in Massachusetts?
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NO!!!


18 posted on 07/09/2012 12:20:24 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Twotone
Are they really going to take Fauxcahontas over Brown in Massachusetts?

Nope.

19 posted on 07/09/2012 12:21:28 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
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To: meatloaf

Why in the hell doesn’t Manchin switch parties and become a Republican?


20 posted on 07/09/2012 12:23:36 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: tsowellfan

The Virginia portion:

6. Virginia (Open)

With Democrat Jim Webb stepping down after one term, Republicans have high hopes to retake the Virginia seat and both sides chose political heavyweights to compete. Former governor and former senator Republican George Allen, whose loss to Webb in 2006 was largely due to the Washington Post making a mountain out of macaca, will be facing former governor and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tim Kaine.


21 posted on 07/09/2012 12:24:50 PM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

It will take a House written law to stop the ‘off shoring’ of vote counting. You would think the potential for fraud is so great the feckless pubbies in control of the House would have already written such a law and sent it to the Senate, for leverage if nothing else!


22 posted on 07/09/2012 12:28:59 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: tsowellfan

1. Nebraska (Open)

2. Wisconsin (Open)

3. Missouri (McCaskill)

4. Montana (Tester)

5. North Dakota (Open)

6. Virginia (Open)

7. Florida (Nelson)

8. Connecticut (Open)

9. New Mexico (Open)

10. Michigan (Stabenow)


23 posted on 07/09/2012 12:30:33 PM PDT by thouworm (.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
It will take a House written law to stop the 'off shoring' of vote counting. You would think the potential for fraud is so great the feckless pubbies in control of the House would have already written such a law and sent it to the Senate, for leverage if nothing else!

BTW, the cheating potential is very high with such a Soros conenction, BUT if We The People do not allow there to be close races, by turning out in amssive unheard of numbers, thent he potential to cheat and throw an election fades even with the Soros connections. That is why it is disgusting to see posters advocating at FR for close elections in blue states. The down ticket potential for cheating and stealing the seats is a real danger with such starategy, and I think the posters advocating that know it and are working for the other side in stealth mode, using the specter of the disgusting liberal Romney as a misdirection ploy.

24 posted on 07/09/2012 12:32:32 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Well he couldn't win the primary here. In 08 he carried it by 10% over McCain his "win" this time was a middle of the night rule change that gave him the 2 extra delegates he needed.

That's not to say that he can't win but he's not the beloved "hometown boy the media makes him out to be and he most definitely can't be credited with pulling anyone else across the line. I won't vote for Romney but will vote for whichever GOP candidate wins the primary for the senate race..

The Michigan Republican Party (MRP) Credentials Committee voted 4-2 last night to give Mitt Romney both of the state's at-large delegates, State Policy Committee Chair Mike Cox told MIRS today.

Cox was one of two "no" votes on the committee which met via telephone, along with attorney Eric Doster The "yes" votes included GOP National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney supporter, and MRP Chair Bobby Schostak.

That would put the delegate split at 16 for Romney and 14 for Rick Santorum, after each candidate won 14 delegates apiece in those divided by Michigan's 14 congressional districts.

As MIRS first reported on Wednesday, the MRP was delaying a final decision on the delegate split until after consulting with attorneys.

Cox said that according to the MRP rules, Santorum and Romney should each get one of Michigan's two at-large delegates based on their take of the popular vote.

"I supported Mitt, but the vote was clearly wrong," Cox said of the Credentials Committee. "It's kind of like Third World voting. We published rules and then we voted to change the rules."

Because The Narrative Cannot Survive A Rewrite

25 posted on 07/09/2012 12:33:17 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MissMagnolia
“Top 10 most likely GOP pick-up lines”...

This topic might make for a very funny thread.

"You'd be so hot if you lost 5 or 10 pounds"

Note: this only works on vain and and slightly insecure women. Half will take a swing at you when you say it, but a bunch will come back later with something to prove.

26 posted on 07/09/2012 12:38:36 PM PDT by Sparticus (Tar and feathers for the next dumb@ss Republican that uses the word bipartisanship.)
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To: tsowellfan

Thought this was a thread about a capitol hill prostitution ring.


27 posted on 07/09/2012 12:38:50 PM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: tsowellfan

My predictions for Senate pickups (incumbents in parenthesis):

Probable GOP Gains:

MO: McCaskill, VA: Open, ND: Open, MT: Tester, NE: Open, WI: (Open).

Close but no cigar:

OH: Brown, MI: Stabenow, FL: Nelson, NM: Open

Tightly under the Dems’ jackboot:

NJ: Menendez, PA: Casey, WA: Cantwell, WV: Manchin, CT: Open (D), HI: Open, CA: Feinstein, DE: Carper, MD: Cardin, MN: Klobuchar, NY: Gillibrand, RI: Whitehouse, VT: Sanders (I)

Loss for GOP: ME: Open

A bit worrisome for surprise loss: IN: Lugar

Final net gain for GOP: +5


28 posted on 07/09/2012 12:41:19 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: ScottinVA
Correction: (incumbents in parenthesis)
29 posted on 07/09/2012 12:43:32 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: ScottinVA

You skipped MA.


30 posted on 07/09/2012 12:46:44 PM PDT by rogue yam
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To: Vigilanteman

We’ve got our work cut out for us in Pa. Scranton public workers getting minumum wage under a Democrat mayor as of this week may help.

Tom Smith is a gentleman but Rohrer would have been a much much stronger candidate. Tom is green when it comes to the ways of the Senate and politics. I hope he gets some really good coaching before any debates.

However, I will do whatever I can to help get the vote out for Tom.


31 posted on 07/09/2012 12:47:28 PM PDT by SueRae (See it? Hell, I can TASTE November from my house!)
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To: rogue yam

You’re right. I’d put that one in the danger zone, like Mourdock in IN. The rest are likely GOP holds, IMO.


32 posted on 07/09/2012 12:51:39 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Old Sarge

My personal favorite...”Say, were those tax deductible?”


33 posted on 07/09/2012 1:16:23 PM PDT by proudpapa
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To: HokieMom

What’s your call on the VA race, HokieMom? Is George Allen gonna win it?


34 posted on 07/09/2012 1:28:38 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: MHGinTN

That is why it is disgusting to see posters advocating at FR for close elections in blue states.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I guess I’m in a state of stupid today, but what do you mean: “...advocating for close elections in blue states.” ??? Can you help me out here?


35 posted on 07/09/2012 1:33:22 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: ScottinVA

You really think Nelson is going to be reelected in Florida???


36 posted on 07/09/2012 1:37:43 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: SueRae
We sure do. The box of rocks will run a couple points ahead of Zer0 thanks to the senile crowd who think they are voting for his father.

But if Tom Smith lands a few punches and ties him closely to Obama, they could go down in flames together.

37 posted on 07/09/2012 1:50:08 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Sparticus
"You'd be so hot if you lost 5 or 10 pounds"

Reply (to be delivered with a charming Southern drawl, a smile and a wink! before turning away):

So would you!

38 posted on 07/09/2012 1:50:27 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Old Sarge

Number 1:

Yes, our symbol is an elephant and no, that’s not my trunk.


39 posted on 07/09/2012 2:05:32 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Twotone

“Are they really going to take Fauxcahontas over Brown in Massachusetts?”

Did you see the end of the film “Chinatown” with Jack Nicholson?

“Forget it, Twotone, it’s Massachusetts!”


40 posted on 07/09/2012 2:14:42 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: tsowellfan

If Romney wins all of these states , then why shouldn’t we pick up these senate seats? Reagan did it much of this in 980 against many incumbents.
Whose responsibility is it to convince voters that vote splitting is a moron move? (Yes i self-censored)


41 posted on 07/09/2012 2:15:01 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: pistolpackinpapa
What’s your call on the VA race, HokieMom? Is George Allen gonna win it?

Yes, because of our sweep of of the three statewide races after Obama was elected and we picked up so many seats that we regained the tie in the state senate and added to our majority in the house. We've been scandal-free and Cuccinelli and McDonnell have been strong conservative standard bearers and poll high as relates to job approval.

Romney takes Virginia and has long coattails. George Allen just has to tame his inner frat-boy and keep the joking to himself. I'm sure he's being stalked again in hopes of another media-induced feeding frenzy which is the only thing that can sink him.

42 posted on 07/09/2012 2:32:47 PM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: tsowellfan

“POLITICO Breaking News


The House Ethics Committee announced that it will formally investigate Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) to look into allegations that she improperly steered federal funds to a business owned by her husband. Rep. Michael Conaway (R-Texas) and Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) will be the top lawmakers on the investigative subcommittee probing Berkley. The announcement of the investigation is a major blow to Berkley’s Senate campaign, where she’s locked in a tough race against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).”

Nevada suddenly looks much better.


43 posted on 07/09/2012 2:41:08 PM PDT by Gulf War One
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To: firebrand; Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; ...
Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/7/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

 

7/7/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win

State

Republican Candidate Democrat/IND Candidate Hold/Gain
NE* Debra Fischer Bob Kerrey GAIN
IN* Richard MourdocK Joe Donnelly HOLD
AZ* Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)   HOLD
MO Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) Claire McCaskill+ GAIN
NV Dean Heller+ Shelley Berkley HOLD
WI* Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)   GAIN
ND* Rick Berg Heidi Heitcamp GAIN
MT Denny Rehberg Jon Tester* GAIN
MA Scott Brown+ Elizabeth Warren HOLD
VA* George Allen Tim Kaine GAIN
OH Josh Mandel Sherrod Brown+ GAIN
FL Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) Bill Nelson+ GAIN
MI Primary 8/7/12 Debbie Stabenow+ GAIN
NM* Heather Wilson Martin Heinrich GAIN
NJ Joe Kyrillos Bob Menendez+ GAIN
PA Tom Smith Bob Casey+ GAIN
WV John Raese Joe Manchin+ GAIN
HI* Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)   GAIN
CT* Primary 8/14/12   GAIN
WA Primary 8/7/12 Maria Cantwell+ GAIN
ME* Charles Summers Angus King (Ind.) HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner  

 

44 posted on 07/09/2012 4:32:28 PM PDT by randita
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Manchin scored an 85% liberal rating in 2011. Why would we want an ultraliberal RINO joining the Senate caucus ?


45 posted on 07/09/2012 4:54:16 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Rutt Rohhh....DNC plans in NV not looking good.

The House Ethics Committee announced Monday that it will formally investigate Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) over allegations she violated House rules by using her position in Congress to benefit her husband’s medical practice.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/236819-ethics-panel-to-investigate-rep-berkley-


46 posted on 07/09/2012 6:58:36 PM PDT by ak267
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To: SueRae

I will do whatever I can to help get the vote out for Tom.
____________________________________________________________

BLESS YOU!!!


47 posted on 07/09/2012 9:30:48 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: randita; SMGFan; firebrand; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; GOPsterinMA

Oops posted this in the wrong thread, the chart kinda overlapped into the next post on my ping list

My take

NE
AZ
IN
MO
WI (with Tommy T)
ND
NV (maybe should be higher now eh :) )
MT
WI (with a different Republican than Tommy T)
MA
VA
OH
(I think we’ll win the above races, that would make 53)
FL
NM
MI
NJ
ME (it looks bad in polling but I think it’s a better chance than the below)
PA
HI
CT
WV (wish it was much higher)
WA


48 posted on 07/09/2012 9:54:34 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: MissMagnolia

One of the fave GOP pick-up lines: “You don’t sweat much for a fat gal.”


49 posted on 07/09/2012 10:03:57 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: HokieMom

Thanks for the encouraging word. We don’t get too many of them around here these days.


50 posted on 07/09/2012 10:06:55 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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