We have an outside chance of picking up Pennsylvania as well. Bob Casey, Jr. is as dumb as a box of rocks and banking on his Daddy’s famous name to drag him over the finish line.
Don’t under estimate Minnesota...
We’re not as blue as we use to be. Yes, Dayton is at the top. But the Republicans control our house and senate.
We just have to keep an eye on Mark Richie..
I think Stabenow is done but it has nothing at all to do with Romney. If anything Romney is probably a greater danger than help in that race.
Are they really going to take Fauxcahontas over Brown in Massachusetts?
Gotta get my eyes adjusted.
I thought the title was, “Top 10 most likely GOP pick-up lines”...
Ping
OK, We presently need to take 3 Seats away from the Dems to take over the Senate. Let’s say we lose Snowe’s seat in Maine and Heller’s seat in NV; and, I believe Scott Brown will hold his seat in MA. That means we need to pick up five other seats from the Dems. I am pretty confident that we will do that in Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and Florida. And, it is very possible that we will take New Mexico and Wisconsin, but will be close. And don’t forget....
We need a Pubbie in the Vice President’s Chair to break a tie since it could be 50/50 in the Senate.
Raese in WV seems to be going with the Manchin equals Obama strategy. That’s a loser. Most folks around here aren’t going to vote for Obama. Manchin on the other hand has a family that’s been involved in politics and other than wasting money on state elections, didn’t have any major issues.
On the other hand there’s a grassroots issue that the tightly controlled WV GOP won’t touch. The educational system in the state has major problems. Manchin and the governor to there discredit were involved.
There’s a lot of pent up anger in the state over education. Raese, however, doesn’t seem to have a clue. It’s probably the only issue that Manchin can’t avoid.
The Virginia portion:
6. Virginia (Open)
With Democrat Jim Webb stepping down after one term, Republicans have high hopes to retake the Virginia seat and both sides chose political heavyweights to compete. Former governor and former senator Republican George Allen, whose loss to Webb in 2006 was largely due to the Washington Post making a mountain out of macaca, will be facing former governor and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tim Kaine.
1. Nebraska (Open)
2. Wisconsin (Open)
3. Missouri (McCaskill)
4. Montana (Tester)
5. North Dakota (Open)
6. Virginia (Open)
7. Florida (Nelson)
8. Connecticut (Open)
9. New Mexico (Open)
10. Michigan (Stabenow)
Thought this was a thread about a capitol hill prostitution ring.
My predictions for Senate pickups (incumbents in parenthesis):
Probable GOP Gains:
MO: McCaskill, VA: Open, ND: Open, MT: Tester, NE: Open, WI: (Open).
Close but no cigar:
OH: Brown, MI: Stabenow, FL: Nelson, NM: Open
Tightly under the Dems’ jackboot:
NJ: Menendez, PA: Casey, WA: Cantwell, WV: Manchin, CT: Open (D), HI: Open, CA: Feinstein, DE: Carper, MD: Cardin, MN: Klobuchar, NY: Gillibrand, RI: Whitehouse, VT: Sanders (I)
Loss for GOP: ME: Open
A bit worrisome for surprise loss: IN: Lugar
Final net gain for GOP: +5
If Romney wins all of these states , then why shouldn’t we pick up these senate seats? Reagan did it much of this in 980 against many incumbents.
Whose responsibility is it to convince voters that vote splitting is a moron move? (Yes i self-censored)
“POLITICO Breaking News
Nevada suddenly looks much better.
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/7/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.
Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.
| 7/7/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold/Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| IN* | Richard MourdocK | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| AZ* | Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#) | HOLD | |
| MO | Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| WI* | Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#) | GAIN | |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester* | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| MI | Primary 8/7/12 | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#) | GAIN | |
| CT* | Primary 8/14/12 | GAIN | |
| WA | Primary 8/7/12 | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent #GOP Frontrunner | |||