Posted on 07/06/2012 8:03:33 PM PDT by neverdem
Why the GOP nominee has a slight edge in the one poll that counts
Suppose that this November’s presidential election is so close that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other wins the Electoral College (and thus the election). Which candidate, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or neither, holds an edge in the Electoral College system for choosing U.S. presidents? Though his advantage is small, I believe it belongs to Romney.
My analysis begins with what I call a “political quotient.” I’ve constructed this device to measure a person’s political views quantitatively. Higher PQs correspond to more liberal views, with “100” indicating an outlook approximately as liberal as Nancy Pelosi’s or Barney Frank’s, while “0” indicates positions approximately as conservative as Jim DeMint’s or Michele Bachmann’s. According to my estimates, the PQ of the average American voter is 50.4.
In my book, Left Turn, and on my website, I estimate the PQ of the average voter in each of the 50 states and find that Iowa is the most moderate state in the nation: its average PQ, 50.7, is closest of all states to the national PQ of 50.4. In 2008, Iowa was also the median state in the Electoral College. That is, suppose you ordered all the representatives of the 2008 Electoral College according to the PQ of the representative’s state, starting with the lowest. In such an ordering, the first six members would be the representatives from Utah (the nation’s most conservative state), the next three members would be the representatives from Wyoming (the nation’s second-most conservative state), and so on. Such a list would contain 538 members, and the 270th member (the number necessary to win a majority of the Electoral College) would be a representative from Iowa.
In 2012, however, the median PQ state shifted to Colorado, a slightly more conservative state than Iowa, with a PQ of 48.2. The reason: conservative states (those with PQs lower than Iowa’s) gained six electoral votes in the last census. Thus, if the nation votes exactly 50–50, then Iowa would also be likely to vote almost exactly 50–50 (since its PQ is nearly the same as the nation’s PQ). But Colorado would tilt toward Romney, and with increased conservative electoral representation, so would the Electoral College.
One PQ point translates into about a half percentage point in terms of votes in a national election. For instance, Colorado is about 2.2 PQ points more conservative than the national average (50.4 minus 48.2). Accordingly, in a national election, we can expect Colorado to vote for the more conservative candidate by about 1.1 percentage points (one-half of 2.2) higher than the nation. If in the upcoming election the nation splits its vote 50–50 between Obama and Romney, then Colorado would vote 1.1 percent higher—or 51.1 to 48.9—for Romney.
Thus, according to my analysis, if the election produces a split decision, with a majority of the electorate picking one candidate and the Electoral College picking the other, Romney would win the Electoral College and become president.
Some recent polls support this forecast. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average poll, which surveys voters across the nation, gives Obama a 2.6 percent lead over Romney. Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which surveys voters in twelve swing states, gives Romney an 8-point lead over Obama. The average PQ of the 12 swing states is 48.7—almost exactly the PQ of Colorado. The 12 states should therefore predict very well the outcome of the Electoral College. These polls, like my PQ analysis, suggest that the Electoral College tilts slightly toward Romney, compared with a pure popular-vote system. Expect soon for liberals to renew their complaints about the unfairness of the Electoral College.
Tim Groseclose is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA and the author of Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.
Right Direction 30.2 Wrong Track 61.3
I doubt that the popular vote is close.
Shades of Bush/Gore, Kennedy/Nixon. Not good. The Dems will kick scream get violent.
Rasmussen is the one I trust most. And right now, he’s got Romney up +2 nationally and either tied or ahead in almost all of the major battleground states.
If that happens we’ll have race warfare for Christmas.
If we have another 2000 election I’ll probably suffer a heart attack. I barely made it through that one.
hmm ~ did you realize that when the Democrats ran the more Conservative candidate immediately after the Eisenhower years THEY WON!
He does have more money than Obama unlike Mc Cain and his losers
Sarah Palin could have won it they would have given her real power
Fear not. I think they have done away with hanging chads.
Additionally, if the electoral college did not have a majority of votes for one candidate, then it goes to the house where each state delegation gets one vote: more state delegations are majority republican than majority democrat, so the republicans would win.
Hope he has the sense to get a VP with the quality of Sarah.
I’ve read Tim’s book and strongly recommend it. He is a scientist who tests his hypotheses and who deliberately weights his model against his hypotheses to compensate for how own bias.
Romney is losing it right now before our very eyes.
He has let Obama define him as an “outsourcer” all summer long without responding, and it has stuck. Most polls, save Rasmussen, now show Obama with a lead outside the margin of error.
Obama got a huge assist from John Roberts as well. His ridiculous rulings on immigration and healthcare caught Romney off-guard, and Mitt’s responses were very uninspiring.
He is definitely playing catch-up now.
Obama won’t win the electoral or the popular vote.
Yeah, that’s why Romney has set records fund raising...he’s uninspiring and losing.
I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt Mittens has a snowball’s chance in hell.
Right now, his campaign is making McCain’s look mean and vicious by comparison. I don’t think he’ll be able to articulate a conservative message or deliver a political killing blow.
I will read anything that gives me hope. The thought of Obama’s re-election truly scares me to death.
By taking vacation while Bambi basks in the glow of his SCOTUS victory?
Given the Roberts Dependence Day decision, it’s best to plan for Zer0 to get a second bite of the apple.
My thoughts exactly.
So true.
Anointings set aside are not neccessarily lost forever.
Samson comes to mind, for example.
The important thing is that he gets a cohesive and biting campaign in August and September he roars out of the convention ready to kick but. He needs a 3 point plan and easy to digest message.
There are less than 10% of all people who are undecided and are going to vote. I doubt that more than 10% of those break for Obama. He is below 50% in all the polls. He is in trouble.
Mark my words, Mark ‘em!!! The doomsayers are not only tiresome, they are irrational.
Romney by 3 to 7 points in the popular vote ... or more, not less.
North of 290 electoral, likely to be revised up.
I would also prefer Newt or Sarah or many others, but the reality is they are unelectable precisely because they are better than Romney. Palin and Newt are too much for the undecided’s. The undecided’s are the reason it’s not going to be a chad festival. Also, much as I love them both, and may marry them when the next iteration of marry-whomever-you-want is ratified (OK not Newt,) neither is qualified to lead this particular economy.
It is correct that Rasmussen is most accurate both historically and methodologically. And he also knows Romney will win. Mark those words.
I have been lurking for an extremely long time, and I do apologize for posting a response before posting an article. But this is interesting. I received news at dinner tonight from a reliable source that Obama has all the electoral votes he needs to be re-elected. He will not win by popular vote, but electoral. This, according to my source, is a done deal.
“...I’ll probably suffer a heart attack. I barely made it through that one.”
Same here.
The left wins, with, either Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney! Conservatives and conservatism has, already, lost the race for ‘12 POTUS!
I thought about that in the past. Initially I thought the same. I still think it's possible. But I also remember thinking the same thing during the Bush vs Kerry campaign. In the end, the day after the election was quiet - just another day. I got the feeling that the Kerry loss was not so drastic to the dems after all. I suppose it could work out the same with Obama. Just a guess.
There would be two exceptions:
1) If the election results are too close.
or
2) Obama refuses to concede (even after an obvious defeat) and somehow tries to stay in power.
Then things could get violent.
Welcome newbie. The GOP got 60 percent of the white vote for the first time in 2010. The Jacksonian Democrats are probably going to leave the rats for good because of their energy and environmental policies.
Anybody who is still acting like Mr. Milquetoast at this stage is toast and I don’t care WHO he picks for VP .
I believe the opposite.
With your connections, do you know if there is a current list of which red states have opted to use Soros’s Spanish vote counting company?
Oh, really? And how is that possible to know before any votes are cast and any Electors have been appointed?
I wouldn’t expect less from a fellow Hoosier.
You’ve been duly christened with a bottle of bubbly broken over your bill.
I mean, bow.
We won’t survive four more years of the thing in the WH.
Looks like you’ve got tough hide. Again, welcome.
That's right. Even though I don't like plain vanilla. Which is what this namby-pamby zombie milquetoast is. I can't quite figure out if he's even alive.
Yo Mitt, vanilla is GOOD. Just put some syrup and jimmies on it. Get the crushed nuts from your opponent. Wake up, boy! Gimme a sign.
Here, give me that mirror, hold it up to his nostrils! Mitt, talk to me!
I can’t figure out why Mitt is raising all that money if he is just going to sit on it and not respond to the non-stop attacks from the Kenyan and his MSM lackeys.
His favorables have tanked over the past couple of months mainly because Obambi has painted him as a guy who loves outsourcing and screwing over blue collar workers.
He needs to stop the bleeding and go on the attack NOW if he wants to have a chance to win.
I also received news at dinner this evening from a reliable source that the newbie is not a troll. This source is a guy in the know. Done deal.
Homeland Security-Funded Study Lists People ‘Reverent of Individual Liberty’ as Terrorists
Remember Fast and Furious’s Mexican Victims
July 4th With Obama’s Communist Mentor
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
It's true.
Only ballots in Spanish will be counted. The only exceptions will be absentee voters who died before 1965, when Ted passed the Immigration Reform Act, holders of current EBT Cards, and those presently incarcerated.
Si es posible, comenze un curso de español imediatamente. Meet me in the Home Depot parking lot tomorrow at 7 AM. After we knock off a few lawns and a plumbing job, I'll help you with some tutoring, so your vote can count, too, amigo!
“He will not win by popular vote, but electoral. This, according to my source, is a done deal.”
The DNC and 0bama’s handlers would spend an enormous amount of money and gravitas to have that rumor spread wide.
The left is continuing to use the tactic of painting Mittens as rich, elite, cold-hearted and out of touch, and the rats are lapping it up. It’s so crazy, because that’s exactly the personificationof zero!
its the cnn poll that has romney up 8 in swing states.....if the guy cant get his facts right...how can i trust his #’s
The details were few, but that is the word he gave to me. He is a very wealthy DC businessman who plays both sides of the fence and his info has been accurate in past BO’s trapsing around OH, MI, PA are to pick up what small town votes he can to cammoflage his electoral totals. Just who will appoint the electoral reps? The Chicago way lives; it worked on Roberts.
and of course he falls to mention how romney is gonna win the popular but lose the ev...which is pretty much...impossible...where is romney gonna run up votes enough to overcome cali,new york and such?.....nebraska and north dakota?..hell obama has pretty much 7 or 8 million votes just from cali and new york...and if he wins the ev then that means obama would have to win ohio or florida or virginia or north carolina in some combo...so once again..where is romney running up these votes?....
if romney wins by 3 or more...he will get more than 290..3 or more means most likely pa,wi,mn,or,mi...one or more of them will fall to us
The details were few. My source was frightenly confident in his comments. He is a very wealthy DC businessman who plays both sides of the fence. BO’s trapsing around OH, MI, PA are to garner (or appear to) as many small town votes as possible to cammoflage the electoral award. Who will appoint the electoral voters? It’s the Chicago way, once again.
EN double OH BEE
What’s that spell boys, and girls?
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