Posted on 07/06/2012 8:03:33 PM PDT by neverdem
Why the GOP nominee has a slight edge in the one poll that counts
Suppose that this November’s presidential election is so close that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other wins the Electoral College (and thus the election). Which candidate, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or neither, holds an edge in the Electoral College system for choosing U.S. presidents? Though his advantage is small, I believe it belongs to Romney.
My analysis begins with what I call a “political quotient.” I’ve constructed this device to measure a person’s political views quantitatively. Higher PQs correspond to more liberal views, with “100” indicating an outlook approximately as liberal as Nancy Pelosi’s or Barney Frank’s, while “0” indicates positions approximately as conservative as Jim DeMint’s or Michele Bachmann’s. According to my estimates, the PQ of the average American voter is 50.4.
In my book, Left Turn, and on my website, I estimate the PQ of the average voter in each of the 50 states and find that Iowa is the most moderate state in the nation: its average PQ, 50.7, is closest of all states to the national PQ of 50.4. In 2008, Iowa was also the median state in the Electoral College. That is, suppose you ordered all the representatives of the 2008 Electoral College according to the PQ of the representative’s state, starting with the lowest. In such an ordering, the first six members would be the representatives from Utah (the nation’s most conservative state), the next three members would be the representatives from Wyoming (the nation’s second-most conservative state), and so on. Such a list would contain 538 members, and the 270th member (the number necessary to win a majority of the Electoral College) would be a representative from Iowa.
In 2012, however, the median PQ state shifted to Colorado, a slightly more conservative state than Iowa, with a PQ of 48.2. The reason: conservative states (those with PQs lower than Iowa’s) gained six electoral votes in the last census. Thus, if the nation votes exactly 50–50, then Iowa would also be likely to vote almost exactly 50–50 (since its PQ is nearly the same as the nation’s PQ). But Colorado would tilt toward Romney, and with increased conservative electoral representation, so would the Electoral College.
One PQ point translates into about a half percentage point in terms of votes in a national election. For instance, Colorado is about 2.2 PQ points more conservative than the national average (50.4 minus 48.2). Accordingly, in a national election, we can expect Colorado to vote for the more conservative candidate by about 1.1 percentage points (one-half of 2.2) higher than the nation. If in the upcoming election the nation splits its vote 50–50 between Obama and Romney, then Colorado would vote 1.1 percent higher—or 51.1 to 48.9—for Romney.
Thus, according to my analysis, if the election produces a split decision, with a majority of the electorate picking one candidate and the Electoral College picking the other, Romney would win the Electoral College and become president.
Some recent polls support this forecast. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average poll, which surveys voters across the nation, gives Obama a 2.6 percent lead over Romney. Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which surveys voters in twelve swing states, gives Romney an 8-point lead over Obama. The average PQ of the 12 swing states is 48.7—almost exactly the PQ of Colorado. The 12 states should therefore predict very well the outcome of the Electoral College. These polls, like my PQ analysis, suggest that the Electoral College tilts slightly toward Romney, compared with a pure popular-vote system. Expect soon for liberals to renew their complaints about the unfairness of the Electoral College.
Tim Groseclose is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA and the author of Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.
It's true.
Only ballots in Spanish will be counted. The only exceptions will be absentee voters who died before 1965, when Ted passed the Immigration Reform Act, holders of current EBT Cards, and those presently incarcerated.
Si es posible, comenze un curso de español imediatamente. Meet me in the Home Depot parking lot tomorrow at 7 AM. After we knock off a few lawns and a plumbing job, I'll help you with some tutoring, so your vote can count, too, amigo!
“He will not win by popular vote, but electoral. This, according to my source, is a done deal.”
The DNC and 0bama’s handlers would spend an enormous amount of money and gravitas to have that rumor spread wide.
The left is continuing to use the tactic of painting Mittens as rich, elite, cold-hearted and out of touch, and the rats are lapping it up. It’s so crazy, because that’s exactly the personificationof zero!
its the cnn poll that has romney up 8 in swing states.....if the guy cant get his facts right...how can i trust his #’s
The details were few, but that is the word he gave to me. He is a very wealthy DC businessman who plays both sides of the fence and his info has been accurate in past BO’s trapsing around OH, MI, PA are to pick up what small town votes he can to cammoflage his electoral totals. Just who will appoint the electoral reps? The Chicago way lives; it worked on Roberts.
and of course he falls to mention how romney is gonna win the popular but lose the ev...which is pretty much...impossible...where is romney gonna run up votes enough to overcome cali,new york and such?.....nebraska and north dakota?..hell obama has pretty much 7 or 8 million votes just from cali and new york...and if he wins the ev then that means obama would have to win ohio or florida or virginia or north carolina in some combo...so once again..where is romney running up these votes?....
if romney wins by 3 or more...he will get more than 290..3 or more means most likely pa,wi,mn,or,mi...one or more of them will fall to us
The details were few. My source was frightenly confident in his comments. He is a very wealthy DC businessman who plays both sides of the fence. BO’s trapsing around OH, MI, PA are to garner (or appear to) as many small town votes as possible to cammoflage the electoral award. Who will appoint the electoral voters? It’s the Chicago way, once again.
EN double OH BEE
What’s that spell boys, and girls?
For future reference, a nerdish "Voodoo Witchdoctor" who is an expert at World of Warcraft is not a reliable source.
They are only happy and effective when their screaming like babies and being violent. They were given the store, house senate and presidency and were afraid to take resposibility for thier actions and needed the republicans to join them so they have someone to blame. They will all go underground and do what they do best. Romney better have a plan to deal with these extremists they will cause a lot of problems in his presidency
Your reliable source - Valerie Jarrett??? Eric Holder??? Saul Alinsky???? Pleeeease - you can’t possibly expect us to take this seriously based on what you posted newbie! Just having a little fun by posting about the “done deal” for the libs, are you?
Don’t forget 2004.
I was in a fetal position on the floor for both elections.
Romney is so uninspiring that if he wins, I’ll probably be eating a chocolate dipped cone at McDonald’s this time and be upright.
The difference with the “Bush-Kerry” event was that Kerry (to his credit) didn’t spend four years stirring up the masses and encouraging a race-war if he didn’t get his way. Obama is not only inept but dangerous - he would rather see this country go down than suffer the humiliation of a loss.
Not that your source isn’t reliable...but there is no way for anyone to predict with that kind of certainty what will happen in November.
The heck with the electoral college, it failed to vet Obama properly, it has been hacked by the Communist Party USA and is prone to manipulation by outside interest groups,
Let the blue states keep it, I vote that the red states walk away from the EC and declare a re-set, its now an open field of vetted candidates and third party choices.
Let Obama and Romney act like a pair of rutting Rams, the red states Obamataxcare free will elect their own President.
I glimpsed an article earlier in the week that said Romney's wife whispered that a female was being considered for the ticket - my mind went to Bachmann vs. Palin because he won't want someone stronger than him. At this stage, I have no idea of how that would affect the dynamics of the race.
I love your optimism. It is refreshing amidst all the negativity on this website. But, I am curious what makes you say that Rasmussen is “accurate both historically and methodologically.” I understand his 2010 model, but I worry that he is over-sampling Republicans. No?
Neverdem, you have broken the code. There is no way this election will be close unless Romney starts blowing bubbles with his drool.
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