Posted on 06/22/2012 3:26:13 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
There are five new battleground state polls out and only a slight lean toward incumbent President Barack Obama. Here's a breakdown:
Wisconsin: The badger state has flipped toward Obama. Rasmussen Reports had suggested Obama trailed Romney by 3 points on June 13, but a Wednesday poll from Marquette Law School shows 49 percent of Wisconsin would prefer Obama while another 43 polled would select Romney.
Iowa: On Wednesday, pollsters We Ask America awarded Obama a one-point lead, edging out Romney 45 percent to 44 percent.
Michigan: Two polls tell two different stories in Michigan, but though each candidate sees an advantage, they're both showing a close race. 45 percent of voters were going to go with Romney as of polling, while 43 percent chose Obama.
New Hampshire: Rasmussen Reports noted on Thursday that Obama had a modest edge over his rival with 48 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 43 percent; just outside of the 4.5 percent plus or minus margin of error.
Florida: Obama leads in that poll as of Thursday with 46 percent to Romney's 42 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
It also seems somewhat biased to claim that Wisconsin has flipped when you are comparing two polls by different polling groups. Who knows what methods and biases account for the difference between the polls. You can only claim a flip if the same polling group shows it has flipped.
That’s some serious cherry picking to produce that article narrative. They point toward Rasmussen in Wisconin, but immediately counter it with a much less formidable poll showing the opposite. Then, they use Quinpiac in FL, ignoring other much better polls. Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.
Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.
Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.
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HUH???? Am I missing something? Can you explain your comment to me please?
Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.
That worked out real well in 2008....everyone on here was saying that there was no way that Obama was going to win due to the Bradley effect. I doubt that would even be a reason one way or another.
Polls are pure BS! And it they are right then one hell of a lot of Americans are plain stupid to want to live in a Country that is so screwed up.
Ping
The problem I find is all polls, regardless of their sampling, get equal standing. We`re currently seeing several polls showing a tight race. Next week..bank on it.. NBC/Marist and/or some other “media” polling outfit will swoop with a flurry of them that show Obama`s lead in all the battleground states and nationally exploding to double-digits. Ditto for Washington Post, CBS and ABC.
The propaganda ministers are going to go into hyper-drive to reset the narrative ... veracity or lack of it notwithstanding... that 0bama is weathering the recent political storms and his level of support is firming up “just in time” for the summer.
They`ll also want to invent the impression the public view on Obamacare has turned markedly for it.
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3 Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5 Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13 Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4 Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1 IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie
Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable
Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable
Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 51.6 44.0 +7.6 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 55 42 +13 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 50 48 +2 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 45 43 +2 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 54 42 +12 Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 52 43 +9 CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 56 42 +14 ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 49 48 +1 Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable
Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 42.9 43.1 -0.2 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 39 48 -9 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 41 47 -6 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 38 37 +1 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 46 42 +4 Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 44 42 +2 CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 48 42 +6 ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 44 44 Tie
There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.
There may be a new form of the Bradley effect in 2012, maybe they’ll start calling it the angry Bradley effect after this year......
Still in many circles people are not focused on this, in fact even those on "our side" do not want this cycle, they know how ugly it will be, but they will vote.
With that said again it is 6 months out, and Obama is even or behind for all intensive purpose.
We still don't have the Romney Convention Bump, and the "big mo" is not in Obama's favor, and I don't see how he turns it around...
I don't see how they can spin it, I think he is deep doo-doo and the Dem/DNC wonks know it.
I went to that site "Glenn" talked about today, I came up with Romney @ 309 electorial and that is with 2 States Undecided.
I have become a bit of an armchair predictor with a decent record. I am not saying it is a shoe in, but the down-ticket and Senate gains will be huge.My gut tells me it will take the Dem's 20 years to recover from this cycle.
Gallup 43 pct approval rating came out yesterday, not good for barry kardashian
There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.
I personally think it has a lot less to do with Romney strength than Obama weakness. Michigan has become much more conservative in recent years with Romney and Santorum in a tie in the primary. (Romney beat McCain by almost 10% here in 08).
The big indicator was the 2010 race where democrats didn’t pick up a single Michigan seat above the county level
I think Rush was right back in February when he said we don’t need to pick a moderate this time because virtually anyone in the race at that point could beat Obama.
I didn’t believe it but it looks like Romney will win but its only June and things can change a lot.
Sorry about the dupe
| Poll | Date | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 6/3 - 6/21 | -- | 47.7 | 47.7 | Tie |
| Gallup | 6/19 - 6/21 | 1500 A | 45 | 48 | -3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/19 - 6/21 | 1500 LV | 44 | 54 | -10 |
| Bloomberg | 6/15 - 6/18 | 1002 A | 53 | 44 | +9 |
| Associated Press/GfK | 6/14 - 6/18 | 1007 A | 49 | 48 | +1 |
| Pew Research | 6/7 - 6/17 | 2013 A | 47 | 45 | +2 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 6/7 - 6/11 | 1099 A | 47 | 50 | -3 |
| FOX News | 6/3 - 6/5 | 907 RV | 49 | 45 | +4 |
That favorable/unfavorable is going to be aggravatingly high, because Americans still feel a tight emotional bond with Obama. The key is whether voters can compartmentalize between their ongoing fondness for 0bama and the need to make a change in November. That remains to be seen.
| Gross Federal Debt | Debt Held by Public | |
| FY 2013* | $17.5 trillion | $10.6 trillion |
| FY 2012* | $16.4 trillion | $9.7 trillion |
| FY 2011 | $14.8 trillion | $8.5 trillion |
| FY 2010 | $13.5 trillion | $8.2 trillion |
| FY 2009 | $11.9 trillion | $6.8 trillion |
| FY 2008 | $10.0 trillion | $5.3 trillion |
I agree that those debt numbers should resonate with people... but they don`t. The average American can`t grasp why it affects his/her ability to access entertainment, food, beer, tattoos and cigarettes.
I would like to officially start the rumor that ILL-ANNOY is in play for Mittens, and Mr. Soetoro is down by 3. Any takers? Otherwise, might as well stay home.
Forgive my ignorance, but, what is the Bradley effect?
NBC/Marist and/or some other “media” polling outfit will swoop with a flurry of them that show Obama`s lead in all the battleground states and nationally exploding to double-digits.
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That’s not all bad. Let the Obama team have a sense of false security. That will work to our favor. Because the people who can’t stand him, will get to the polls regardless. If his supporters think he’s gonna win, they’ll just go to the crack house on Election Day and not bother voting.
How in the heck can Obama’s “Favorables” be so friggin’ high?
We are 6 months out.
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Uh.... the Election is November 6th, not December 22. We are 4 1/2 months out. But, I LOVE your optimism and I hope you’re right. I love to read encouraging comments. Thanks.
I went to that site “Glenn” talked about today, I came up with Romney @ 309 electorial and that is with 2 States Undecided.
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What site is that please? Do you have url for it?
Lost me 100% when they said Florida is leaning obama.
No way - we are going to toss him out on his butt.
I saw and barry kardashian hit 43 pct yesterday not good for holmes
Lost me 100% when they said Florida is leaning obama.
No way - we are going to toss him out on his butt.
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YOU GO BOY!!!
Oh man It was a long day yesterday when I put in 6 months :-)...
Go here on your other request !
It depends on how the choice is presented in the public mind. If the GOP is smart (they generally are not when it comes to political strategy) they will focus on the things that are foremost on voters' minds, the economy and the national debt. If the 'Pubs can keep the focus there, then Obama is done. But you see the 'Rats trying the scatter-gun approach now, do anything and everything to focus attention elsewhere (that is why they secretly like the uproar over "Fast and Furious", it takes focus away from the economy, and no matter what happens on F&F, Holder will take the fall to protect Obama). If the focus is somewhere other than the economy and the debt, then the Obama "likeability" factor comes into play (I don't see anything "likeable" about Obama, but evidently many do), and we're probably going to get clobbered.
Marquette poll=liberal biased
The Bradley effect is a theory that basically says black candidates underperformed their polling numbers because people are reluctant to go against a black candidate in a poll and appear racist even when they don't intend to vote for them.
It has been disputed whether this is real, but I believe that it is valid under limited circumstances. One of the suggestions is that it depends on who is polling (white or black pollster asking the questions). I personally don't think it applies to conservatives but only liberals suffering from white-guilt. I also think the Bradley effect is normally not an issue because other issues will, most times, be more of a concern. Many have suggested that the election of Obama disproves the theory or at least shows that it is no longer valid. However, I think you will see the Bradley effect in 2012 because race was and has been a major issue with Obama.
Imagine being a white liberal in 2008. You disliked Bush and had the opportunity to prove you were open-minded by enthusiastically voting for a black candidate. Roll the clock forward to 2012. The economy sucks, your job is hanging in the balance, prices are rising, and your struggling to make your mortgage while everyone else seems to be getting bailed out but you. When the pollster calls or your fellow liberals ask you if your are voting again for Obama will you say he's been a failure? (especially when he's running against a whiter than sour cream Romney?)
I only speak from personal observation with no statistical evidence, but in my office building I had many white liberals who were the most enthusiastic Obama supporters you could imagine. Now, the multiple bumper stickers have been scraped off and have not been replaced by "Obama '12" bumper stickers. If you ask them anything about Obama they tend to change the topic outright or at least not give a straight answer. But, they won't come out and say anything negative about him either. They may not end up voting for Romney, but I don't they will vote for Obama. Pretty much every white person I know who happily voted for Obama in '08 shows no enthusiasm this time around. If they voted for Obama to prove they weren't a racist, will not voting for Obama prove they are, at least subconsciously, a racist? I think that is what is going on in their heads. I fully expect the polls to say it is a horse race right up to the end only to see Obama under-perform his poll numbers by a significant margin.
If Michigan is polling within 1-2 points in any poll that is reputable, Obama is toast.
Undecideds break 80-90% or more to the challenger... I am not worried about November, fight hard, don’t get lazy or complacent, but its not going to be close guys.
By October, the discussion won’t even be about the Presidential race, it will be whether the Republicans will get 60 seats in the Senate. Obama’s loss will be all but a foregone conclusion other than some propped up drama to sell papers and get ratings.
I pray that you are right. But, I do not underestimate the nefarious deeds the Chicago thugs might pull off before Election Day.
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