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Battleground Polls: Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan Tight
Flint Journal / Yahoo News ^ | June 21, 2012 | Shawn Humphrey

Posted on 06/22/2012 3:26:13 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa

There are five new battleground state polls out and only a slight lean toward incumbent President Barack Obama. Here's a breakdown:

Wisconsin: The badger state has flipped toward Obama. Rasmussen Reports had suggested Obama trailed Romney by 3 points on June 13, but a Wednesday poll from Marquette Law School shows 49 percent of Wisconsin would prefer Obama while another 43 polled would select Romney.

Iowa: On Wednesday, pollsters We Ask America awarded Obama a one-point lead, edging out Romney 45 percent to 44 percent.

Michigan: Two polls tell two different stories in Michigan, but though each candidate sees an advantage, they're both showing a close race. 45 percent of voters were going to go with Romney as of polling, while 43 percent chose Obama.

New Hampshire: Rasmussen Reports noted on Thursday that Obama had a modest edge over his rival with 48 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 43 percent; just outside of the 4.5 percent plus or minus margin of error.

Florida: Obama leads in that poll as of Thursday with 46 percent to Romney's 42 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: battlegroundpolls
Hmmmm........ I'm having a hard time believing some of these poll numbers. But, we must remember that if Obama has 46 percent and Romney has 42 percent, that means that 12 percent are undecided and the undecided vote, historically, always goes for the challenger.
1 posted on 06/22/2012 3:26:21 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
2 posted on 06/22/2012 3:28:55 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

It also seems somewhat biased to claim that Wisconsin has flipped when you are comparing two polls by different polling groups. Who knows what methods and biases account for the difference between the polls. You can only claim a flip if the same polling group shows it has flipped.


3 posted on 06/22/2012 3:30:51 PM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts so good.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

That’s some serious cherry picking to produce that article narrative. They point toward Rasmussen in Wisconin, but immediately counter it with a much less formidable poll showing the opposite. Then, they use Quinpiac in FL, ignoring other much better polls. Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.


4 posted on 06/22/2012 3:33:03 PM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: ilgipper
They can't let their potential Obama donors get demoralized..
5 posted on 06/22/2012 3:36:18 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.


6 posted on 06/22/2012 3:36:47 PM PDT by Armando Guerra
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To: ilgipper

Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

HUH???? Am I missing something? Can you explain your comment to me please?


7 posted on 06/22/2012 3:38:07 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Armando Guerra

Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.

That worked out real well in 2008....everyone on here was saying that there was no way that Obama was going to win due to the Bradley effect. I doubt that would even be a reason one way or another.


8 posted on 06/22/2012 3:40:26 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Exactly! Obama can't get above fifty percent in WISCONSIN. Frigging WISCONSIN is a liberal Democrat state from WAYYYYYYYYYYY Back. He can't get above forty five Percent in MEEEEEECHIGAN. THE HEART OF MIDWEST DEMOCRAT UNIONISM. I mean DeToilet can't even save Obama in MEEECHIGAN! FLORFIDA is lost to Obama, he hasn't got a chance!
9 posted on 06/22/2012 3:42:21 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Polls are pure BS! And it they are right then one hell of a lot of Americans are plain stupid to want to live in a Country that is so screwed up.


10 posted on 06/22/2012 3:43:35 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun

Ping


11 posted on 06/22/2012 3:51:19 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: ilgipper

The problem I find is all polls, regardless of their sampling, get equal standing. We`re currently seeing several polls showing a tight race. Next week..bank on it.. NBC/Marist and/or some other “media” polling outfit will swoop with a flurry of them that show Obama`s lead in all the battleground states and nationally exploding to double-digits. Ditto for Washington Post, CBS and ABC.

The propaganda ministers are going to go into hyper-drive to reset the narrative ... veracity or lack of it notwithstanding... that 0bama is weathering the recent political storms and his level of support is firming up “just in time” for the summer.

They`ll also want to invent the impression the public view on Obamacare has turned markedly for it.


12 posted on 06/22/2012 3:51:37 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Real Clear Politics June polling numbers

General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3
Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5
Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie



Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable

Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread
RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 51.6 44.0 +7.6
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 55 42 +13
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 50 48 +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 45 43 +2
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 54 42 +12
Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 52 43 +9
CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 56 42 +14
ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 49 48 +1

Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread
RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 42.9 43.1 -0.2
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 39 48 -9
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 41 47 -6
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 38 37 +1
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 46 42 +4
Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 44 42 +2
CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 48 42 +6
ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 44 44 Tie

13 posted on 06/22/2012 3:53:34 PM PDT by deport
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To: Armando Guerra

There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.


14 posted on 06/22/2012 3:57:42 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: ScottinVA

There may be a new form of the Bradley effect in 2012, maybe they’ll start calling it the angry Bradley effect after this year......


15 posted on 06/22/2012 4:02:33 PM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt, the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
We are 6 months out. Many people ( the few that can afford it ) are in vacation mode.

Still in many circles people are not focused on this, in fact even those on "our side" do not want this cycle, they know how ugly it will be, but they will vote.

With that said again it is 6 months out, and Obama is even or behind for all intensive purpose.

We still don't have the Romney Convention Bump, and the "big mo" is not in Obama's favor, and I don't see how he turns it around...

I don't see how they can spin it, I think he is deep doo-doo and the Dem/DNC wonks know it.

I went to that site "Glenn" talked about today, I came up with Romney @ 309 electorial and that is with 2 States Undecided.

I have become a bit of an armchair predictor with a decent record. I am not saying it is a shoe in, but the down-ticket and Senate gains will be huge.My gut tells me it will take the Dem's 20 years to recover from this cycle.

16 posted on 06/22/2012 4:06:49 PM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: deport

Gallup 43 pct approval rating came out yesterday, not good for barry kardashian


17 posted on 06/22/2012 4:07:54 PM PDT by italianquaker ( Mr Obama inherited an AAA rating and made it AA, thnx Resident Zero)
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To: Armando Guerra

There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.


18 posted on 06/22/2012 4:11:45 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Logical me

I personally think it has a lot less to do with Romney strength than Obama weakness. Michigan has become much more conservative in recent years with Romney and Santorum in a tie in the primary. (Romney beat McCain by almost 10% here in 08).

The big indicator was the 2010 race where democrats didn’t pick up a single Michigan seat above the county level

I think Rush was right back in February when he said we don’t need to pick a moderate this time because virtually anyone in the race at that point could beat Obama.

I didn’t believe it but it looks like Romney will win but its only June and things can change a lot.


19 posted on 06/22/2012 4:12:49 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Armando Guerra

Sorry about the dupe


20 posted on 06/22/2012 4:14:53 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: italianquaker

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 6/3 - 6/21 -- 47.7 47.7 Tie
Gallup 6/19 - 6/21 1500 A 45 48 -3
Rasmussen Reports 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 44 54 -10
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 53 44 +9
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 1007 A 49 48 +1
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 2013 A 47 45 +2
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 1099 A 47 50 -3
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 49 45 +4

21 posted on 06/22/2012 4:22:30 PM PDT by deport
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To: deport

That favorable/unfavorable is going to be aggravatingly high, because Americans still feel a tight emotional bond with Obama. The key is whether voters can compartmentalize between their ongoing fondness for 0bama and the need to make a change in November. That remains to be seen.


22 posted on 06/22/2012 4:25:38 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: ScottinVA
The following is info that should concern all whether democrat, republican or some other persuasion.

Projected and Recent US Federal Debt Numbers

Gross Federal Debt Debt Held by Public
FY 2013* $17.5 trillion $10.6 trillion
FY 2012* $16.4 trillion $9.7 trillion
FY 2011 $14.8 trillion $8.5 trillion
FY 2010 $13.5 trillion $8.2 trillion
FY 2009 $11.9 trillion $6.8 trillion
FY 2008 $10.0 trillion $5.3 trillion

23 posted on 06/22/2012 4:37:49 PM PDT by deport
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To: deport

I agree that those debt numbers should resonate with people... but they don`t. The average American can`t grasp why it affects his/her ability to access entertainment, food, beer, tattoos and cigarettes.


24 posted on 06/22/2012 4:47:47 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

I would like to officially start the rumor that ILL-ANNOY is in play for Mittens, and Mr. Soetoro is down by 3. Any takers? Otherwise, might as well stay home.


25 posted on 06/22/2012 4:52:25 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: Armando Guerra

Forgive my ignorance, but, what is the Bradley effect?


26 posted on 06/22/2012 5:52:32 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: ScottinVA; All

NBC/Marist and/or some other “media” polling outfit will swoop with a flurry of them that show Obama`s lead in all the battleground states and nationally exploding to double-digits.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That’s not all bad. Let the Obama team have a sense of false security. That will work to our favor. Because the people who can’t stand him, will get to the polls regardless. If his supporters think he’s gonna win, they’ll just go to the crack house on Election Day and not bother voting.


27 posted on 06/22/2012 5:58:13 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: deport

How in the heck can Obama’s “Favorables” be so friggin’ high?


28 posted on 06/22/2012 6:00:37 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: taildragger

We are 6 months out.
______________________________________________________________
Uh.... the Election is November 6th, not December 22. We are 4 1/2 months out. But, I LOVE your optimism and I hope you’re right. I love to read encouraging comments. Thanks.


29 posted on 06/22/2012 6:04:34 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: taildragger

I went to that site “Glenn” talked about today, I came up with Romney @ 309 electorial and that is with 2 States Undecided.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

What site is that please? Do you have url for it?


30 posted on 06/22/2012 6:06:18 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Lost me 100% when they said Florida is leaning obama.

No way - we are going to toss him out on his butt.


31 posted on 06/22/2012 6:18:27 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: deport

I saw and barry kardashian hit 43 pct yesterday not good for holmes


32 posted on 06/22/2012 6:48:14 PM PDT by italianquaker ( Mr Obama inherited an AAA rating and made it AA, thnx Resident Zero)
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To: bill1952

Lost me 100% when they said Florida is leaning obama.

No way - we are going to toss him out on his butt.
______________________________________________________________

YOU GO BOY!!!


33 posted on 06/22/2012 7:18:01 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
PPP...

Oh man It was a long day yesterday when I put in 6 months :-)...

Go here on your other request !

http://www.270towin.com/

34 posted on 06/23/2012 3:26:09 AM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Okay let's go through this again: Obama is NOT winning a single group he did not win in 2008 - with me so far? He is NOT doing as well with ANY group he did win and that includes Blacks Jews and women. Now where are the voters these polls are talking to coming from? I don't believe Obama is even within 8 points nationwide. These polls will get worse as the summer moves along and NEVER get better just as what happened to House Democrats in 2010.
35 posted on 06/23/2012 5:14:09 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
Long story short...the ‘Bradley effect’ means that voters will say to pollsters that they are voting for the black guy, but on election day the black guy loses in a landslide.
36 posted on 06/23/2012 6:24:30 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: taildragger
...and I don't see how he turns it around...

It depends on how the choice is presented in the public mind. If the GOP is smart (they generally are not when it comes to political strategy) they will focus on the things that are foremost on voters' minds, the economy and the national debt. If the 'Pubs can keep the focus there, then Obama is done. But you see the 'Rats trying the scatter-gun approach now, do anything and everything to focus attention elsewhere (that is why they secretly like the uproar over "Fast and Furious", it takes focus away from the economy, and no matter what happens on F&F, Holder will take the fall to protect Obama). If the focus is somewhere other than the economy and the debt, then the Obama "likeability" factor comes into play (I don't see anything "likeable" about Obama, but evidently many do), and we're probably going to get clobbered.

37 posted on 06/23/2012 6:35:48 AM PDT by chimera
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Marquette poll=liberal biased


38 posted on 06/24/2012 6:09:31 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa; ScottinVA; napscoordinator
Forgive my ignorance, but, what is the Bradley effect

The Bradley effect is a theory that basically says black candidates underperformed their polling numbers because people are reluctant to go against a black candidate in a poll and appear racist even when they don't intend to vote for them.

It has been disputed whether this is real, but I believe that it is valid under limited circumstances. One of the suggestions is that it depends on who is polling (white or black pollster asking the questions). I personally don't think it applies to conservatives but only liberals suffering from white-guilt. I also think the Bradley effect is normally not an issue because other issues will, most times, be more of a concern. Many have suggested that the election of Obama disproves the theory or at least shows that it is no longer valid. However, I think you will see the Bradley effect in 2012 because race was and has been a major issue with Obama.

Imagine being a white liberal in 2008. You disliked Bush and had the opportunity to prove you were open-minded by enthusiastically voting for a black candidate. Roll the clock forward to 2012. The economy sucks, your job is hanging in the balance, prices are rising, and your struggling to make your mortgage while everyone else seems to be getting bailed out but you. When the pollster calls or your fellow liberals ask you if your are voting again for Obama will you say he's been a failure? (especially when he's running against a whiter than sour cream Romney?)

I only speak from personal observation with no statistical evidence, but in my office building I had many white liberals who were the most enthusiastic Obama supporters you could imagine. Now, the multiple bumper stickers have been scraped off and have not been replaced by "Obama '12" bumper stickers. If you ask them anything about Obama they tend to change the topic outright or at least not give a straight answer. But, they won't come out and say anything negative about him either. They may not end up voting for Romney, but I don't they will vote for Obama. Pretty much every white person I know who happily voted for Obama in '08 shows no enthusiasm this time around. If they voted for Obama to prove they weren't a racist, will not voting for Obama prove they are, at least subconsciously, a racist? I think that is what is going on in their heads. I fully expect the polls to say it is a horse race right up to the end only to see Obama under-perform his poll numbers by a significant margin.

39 posted on 06/25/2012 8:35:15 AM PDT by Armando Guerra
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To: pistolpackinpapa

If Michigan is polling within 1-2 points in any poll that is reputable, Obama is toast.

Undecideds break 80-90% or more to the challenger... I am not worried about November, fight hard, don’t get lazy or complacent, but its not going to be close guys.

By October, the discussion won’t even be about the Presidential race, it will be whether the Republicans will get 60 seats in the Senate. Obama’s loss will be all but a foregone conclusion other than some propped up drama to sell papers and get ratings.


40 posted on 06/25/2012 8:40:37 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

I pray that you are right. But, I do not underestimate the nefarious deeds the Chicago thugs might pull off before Election Day.


41 posted on 06/25/2012 4:20:05 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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