Posted on 06/22/2012 3:26:13 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
There are five new battleground state polls out and only a slight lean toward incumbent President Barack Obama. Here's a breakdown:
Wisconsin: The badger state has flipped toward Obama. Rasmussen Reports had suggested Obama trailed Romney by 3 points on June 13, but a Wednesday poll from Marquette Law School shows 49 percent of Wisconsin would prefer Obama while another 43 polled would select Romney.
Iowa: On Wednesday, pollsters We Ask America awarded Obama a one-point lead, edging out Romney 45 percent to 44 percent.
Michigan: Two polls tell two different stories in Michigan, but though each candidate sees an advantage, they're both showing a close race. 45 percent of voters were going to go with Romney as of polling, while 43 percent chose Obama.
New Hampshire: Rasmussen Reports noted on Thursday that Obama had a modest edge over his rival with 48 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 43 percent; just outside of the 4.5 percent plus or minus margin of error.
Florida: Obama leads in that poll as of Thursday with 46 percent to Romney's 42 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
It also seems somewhat biased to claim that Wisconsin has flipped when you are comparing two polls by different polling groups. Who knows what methods and biases account for the difference between the polls. You can only claim a flip if the same polling group shows it has flipped.
That’s some serious cherry picking to produce that article narrative. They point toward Rasmussen in Wisconin, but immediately counter it with a much less formidable poll showing the opposite. Then, they use Quinpiac in FL, ignoring other much better polls. Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.
Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.
Frankly there is no way Florida is in play if Wisconsin and Michigan are even close to going Republican.
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HUH???? Am I missing something? Can you explain your comment to me please?
Don’t forget the Bradley effect too.
That worked out real well in 2008....everyone on here was saying that there was no way that Obama was going to win due to the Bradley effect. I doubt that would even be a reason one way or another.
Polls are pure BS! And it they are right then one hell of a lot of Americans are plain stupid to want to live in a Country that is so screwed up.
Ping
The problem I find is all polls, regardless of their sampling, get equal standing. We`re currently seeing several polls showing a tight race. Next week..bank on it.. NBC/Marist and/or some other “media” polling outfit will swoop with a flurry of them that show Obama`s lead in all the battleground states and nationally exploding to double-digits. Ditto for Washington Post, CBS and ABC.
The propaganda ministers are going to go into hyper-drive to reset the narrative ... veracity or lack of it notwithstanding... that 0bama is weathering the recent political storms and his level of support is firming up “just in time” for the summer.
They`ll also want to invent the impression the public view on Obamacare has turned markedly for it.
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3 Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5 Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13 Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4 Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1 IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie
Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable
Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable
Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 51.6 44.0 +7.6 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 55 42 +13 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 50 48 +2 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 45 43 +2 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 54 42 +12 Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 52 43 +9 CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 56 42 +14 ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 49 48 +1 Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable
Poll Date Sample Favorable Unfavorable Spread RCP Average 5/23 - 6/18 -- 42.9 43.1 -0.2 Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 39 48 -9 Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 41 47 -6 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 38 37 +1 FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 46 42 +4 Gallup 6/1 - 6/4 2069 A 44 42 +2 CNN/Opinion Research 5/29 - 5/31 1009 A 48 42 +6 ABC News/Wash Post 5/23 - 5/27 RV 44 44 Tie
There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.
There may be a new form of the Bradley effect in 2012, maybe they’ll start calling it the angry Bradley effect after this year......
Still in many circles people are not focused on this, in fact even those on "our side" do not want this cycle, they know how ugly it will be, but they will vote.
With that said again it is 6 months out, and Obama is even or behind for all intensive purpose.
We still don't have the Romney Convention Bump, and the "big mo" is not in Obama's favor, and I don't see how he turns it around...
I don't see how they can spin it, I think he is deep doo-doo and the Dem/DNC wonks know it.
I went to that site "Glenn" talked about today, I came up with Romney @ 309 electorial and that is with 2 States Undecided.
I have become a bit of an armchair predictor with a decent record. I am not saying it is a shoe in, but the down-ticket and Senate gains will be huge.My gut tells me it will take the Dem's 20 years to recover from this cycle.
Gallup 43 pct approval rating came out yesterday, not good for barry kardashian
There is no Bradley Effect. That proved to be a myth in 2008, and it is in 2012.
I personally think it has a lot less to do with Romney strength than Obama weakness. Michigan has become much more conservative in recent years with Romney and Santorum in a tie in the primary. (Romney beat McCain by almost 10% here in 08).
The big indicator was the 2010 race where democrats didn’t pick up a single Michigan seat above the county level
I think Rush was right back in February when he said we don’t need to pick a moderate this time because virtually anyone in the race at that point could beat Obama.
I didn’t believe it but it looks like Romney will win but its only June and things can change a lot.
Sorry about the dupe
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