Skip to comments.Might We See a Landslide?
Posted on 06/21/2012 10:17:20 AM PDT by kingattax
We have grown unaccustomed to presidential landslides. The three most lopsided presidential races since 1988 fell short of the conventional definition of a landslide, which would be a ten-point difference in the popular vote between the winner of the election and the next-closest candidate. Obama in 2008 beat McCain by seven points and carried 28 states.
Clinton in 1996 beat Dole by eight points (although Clinton did not even get a majority of the popular vote) and carried 31 states. George H. Bush had a seven-point advantage over Dukakis in 1988 and carried 40 states. A quick perusal of the electoral maps in each race shows a closely divided nation and no real mandate for the victorious candidate.
But that landslide drought could end this November. Economic conditions produce landslides -- prosperity propelled Reagan and Eisenhower, for example, to huge re-election wins in 1984 and 1956. Economic distress affects voters even more.
Only once has a president persuaded Americans to re-elect him in grim economic times: FDR in his 1936 landslide re-election.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Obama was at 43% in the three days surrounding Election Day in 2010.
I would consider the results of that election to be a landslide for the GOP.
Not even DU'ers are buying that poll.
—Obozo losing it???—
I think he may be. As you probably already know I’ve gone on record that I do not believe he will finish his term, probably due to personal meltdown, maybe in public.
Not so fast there Seabiscuit.
We still have to deal with Ron Paulbots and Donald Trump's ego.
Landslides only happen when a candidate generates cross-over support.
I think a LOT of disillusioned Democrats will vote for Romney. And why shouldn’t they?
In a normal election, conservatives migh not turn out with enthusiasm for Mitt Romney, but this is not a normal election. This is about throwing the most offensive president ever out of office. So I think conservatives will ultimately show up.
So, yes, I do believe we are in landslide territory. Not Reagan/Carter landslide territory, but probably 1988 Bush/Dukakis territory.
43% approval when 45% of the country is taking food stamps cannot possibly be a good sign for Obama
Second, of Obama's 9 million vote advantage, how many were Republicans or R-leaning Indies who voted D? Well, a heckuva lot. I gave you the example of the precinct we studied in a totally R neighborhood that had turned out close to 100% for Bush twice, but was only at about 80%. We knew after that one "flush" that Obama had won OH, and certainly the election.
But those are easy switches. Do you think that precinct won't be 100% Romney this time around? Indeed, in many places the more moderate Romney may turn out more people than a conservative would---not all, of course, and it may be a wash. But I personally know a family, two of whom voted for ZERO (white, middle class) and neither of whom is voting for him this time around.
So, if Romney just gains 4.5m GOP/Indie voters who are coming home, he wins. But if he also gets 1-2% of disaffected Dems, that can translate on a state level to, yes, a blowout if you go state by state.
That said, we know in 2002 and 2004 that the polls were off, and it favored us (i.e., undercounted Republicans). In 2006 and 2008, the polls were right on. So I do not want to get into the "poll dismissal" mode, but the right direction/wrong direction question, now coupled with this, makes it seem like it will take an act of the devil to get ZERO re-elected.
After the elections in West Virginia, it is hard to credit the union voters with much of a sense of self-preservation.
Well, geewhiz, naps, I guess I should toss those books by LS that litter my bookshelves away. Can't have ignorance driven tomes around, someone might see them and associate such ignorance with me. Better yet, I'll just burn 'em.
So, naps, could you post a list of your books so I could become enlightened? Oh....and what TV networks are you frequently featured on, so I could bask in your reflected brilliance?
Bye the way, naps, LS is a Professor of History, certainly making him part of the lowering education you so brilliantly exposed.
Thanks again, naps, for protecting FR from LS's lame theories.
Such as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
They'll show up for the down ticket offices but pass on the Presidential part.
Now, the tough part ~ we had 17 million (est) Evangelicals skip the 2008 election ~ was that because of the main candidate's divorce record, or his pudgy mouthy daughter, or were they simply not interested in his program (assuming Evangelical voters might well vote based on a candidate's voting record)?
We might lose another 17 million on top of the 17 million who skipped McCain.
Obama's losses would have to be of staggering proportions to make up for Republican losses.
Sure, times are tough and the country's lost more than half it's private wealth, but that doesn't mean they're going to go out and vote for a yo yo with no plans or Conservative voting record!
When we need a Roosevelt we've got ourselves a Willkie.
I have a clue to the puzzle. Let's have somebody start running for President and see what happens
Allow me to suggest that if you wanted a landslide this year, you would have picked another candidate.
We do not have a candidate at the top who has much of anything in common with most of the people running for the Senate and it shows.
There's a decided lack of communication.
BTW, not only did Romney and his cadre mess up the Virginia primary, he came here to campaign at three or four locations restricted to the very wealthy by invitation only.
Apparently he doesn't think it's worth going after Virginia voters.
If I ran into a pushy Freeper hyping Romney, I think I’d humor him along just so he’d shut up ~ and I vote Republican.
There are multibillionaires running lose with cash to burn. A couple of them lite upon a candidate, and away we go.
More like Roosevelt/Willkie territory.
45% what? Last I looked it was 45 million, and that’d be 15% of the country, although I’ve seen the 17% figure.
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