Second, of Obama's 9 million vote advantage, how many were Republicans or R-leaning Indies who voted D? Well, a heckuva lot. I gave you the example of the precinct we studied in a totally R neighborhood that had turned out close to 100% for Bush twice, but was only at about 80%. We knew after that one "flush" that Obama had won OH, and certainly the election.
But those are easy switches. Do you think that precinct won't be 100% Romney this time around? Indeed, in many places the more moderate Romney may turn out more people than a conservative would---not all, of course, and it may be a wash. But I personally know a family, two of whom voted for ZERO (white, middle class) and neither of whom is voting for him this time around.
So, if Romney just gains 4.5m GOP/Indie voters who are coming home, he wins. But if he also gets 1-2% of disaffected Dems, that can translate on a state level to, yes, a blowout if you go state by state.
They'll show up for the down ticket offices but pass on the Presidential part.
Now, the tough part ~ we had 17 million (est) Evangelicals skip the 2008 election ~ was that because of the main candidate's divorce record, or his pudgy mouthy daughter, or were they simply not interested in his program (assuming Evangelical voters might well vote based on a candidate's voting record)?
We might lose another 17 million on top of the 17 million who skipped McCain.
Obama's losses would have to be of staggering proportions to make up for Republican losses.
Sure, times are tough and the country's lost more than half it's private wealth, but that doesn't mean they're going to go out and vote for a yo yo with no plans or Conservative voting record!
When we need a Roosevelt we've got ourselves a Willkie.
I have a clue to the puzzle. Let's have somebody start running for President and see what happens