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A Closer Look at Those Wisconsin Exit Polls
realclearpolitics.com ^ | June 7, 2012 | Sean Trende

Posted on 06/07/2012 10:46:27 PM PDT by neverdem

The Democrats emerged from Tuesday's recall election with two consolation prizes. The first is that they flipped a seat in the Wisconsin state Senate, taking control of that body (which won’t convene again until after the 2012 elections).

The second, and most frequently cited, is that exit polls found President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by seven points in Wisconsin. As Markos Moulitsas of DailyKos summarized, “[a] seven-point lead, Obama over 50 percent, despite lacking participation of one of Obama's biggest constituencies (young voters), does not suggest a particularly close race this November. If Republicans want to dump their millions (and they'll have plenty of those) here, they're free to do so.”

But was this finding of the exit poll correct? We can’t know for certain, but there are four reasons to at least raise an eyebrow. The first is the wording of the question, which asked whether respondents planned to vote for Obama, Romney, or not vote. Missing from the choices? “Don’t know.”

In other words, what we may be seeing -- and what may explain some of the discrepancies we see below -- is that voters who haven’t given a lot of thought to the 2012 election are presently leaning Obama’s direction if forced to make a choice, but would respond to a typical horse-race poll that they are “undecided.”

Second, the independent polling shows a...

--snip--

This is the problem with the “down-ticket” questions, especially in elections like this one where the top lines had to be heavily weighted. This is part of why exit pollsters only asked basic demographic and top-line questions until fairly recently. And, in fact, Warren Mitofsky found that conservative voters were, in fact, less likely to respond to exit pollsters than liberal or moderate voters, suggesting that our hypothetical isn’t purely hypothetical...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: dailykos; markosmoulitsas; milwaukee; obama; scottwalker; tombarrett; warrenmitofsky; wisconsin; wisconsinshowdown

1 posted on 06/07/2012 10:46:35 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Think I prefer the talking heads’ prevailing wisdom on this. The number-one reason Obama seems to edge out Romney is that this poll, like so many other exit polls, were dem-skewed. As the polling erred to dem advantage in other areas, so it erred on the presidential question.


2 posted on 06/07/2012 10:54:19 PM PDT by Mach9
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To: Mach9

What the true picture is....involves the independent voter who goes from one election to the next, and isn’t locked down to one party. The common sense approach to this election was that a recall was never a necessity. The independent voters really felt recall didn’t fit into the big picture of Wisconsin.

I think nothing clear comes out of this election over Romney. There is still a summer ahead, which involves the economy and jobs. At the current rate, conventional wisdom and a common sense approach will make the independent voters again go back and think through the process. If nothing is happening...it’s obviously time to change the direction of the country. So I don’t put much into the polling data.


3 posted on 06/07/2012 11:01:55 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Obama’s Third-Party History

Non-citizens Voting in Florida? (Purging the rolls hasn’t been easy.)

Jesse Jackson: We Are Going to March on Gun Shops

Fast and Furious: House Oversight has a ‘mole’ in the Justice Department

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

4 posted on 06/07/2012 11:04:30 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

The part in boldface rings pretty true for me; I’d be unlikely to give an exit pollster the time of day.


5 posted on 06/07/2012 11:19:51 PM PDT by Hunton Peck (See my FR homepage for a list of businesses that support WI Gov. Scott Walker)
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To: Mach9

this polling seems schizophrenic at the least. Could it be that those polled felt intimidated to say yes to Zer0?


6 posted on 06/08/2012 12:15:04 AM PDT by ChiMark (chewed up his body for a decade)
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To: ChiMark

I don’t think there is any doubt a whole ton of folks are subject to the ‘Yeah I like the black guy” syndrome, not wanting to be subject to any issues of racism.

The PC mob has done it’s job well.


7 posted on 06/08/2012 1:34:51 AM PDT by scram2
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To: scram2
Didn't’ these same exit polls say that the Walker - Barrett voting was neck and neck? If so, they were clearly off by 7 points, which by extrapolation would put Romney even with Obama in Wisconsin.
8 posted on 06/08/2012 3:19:09 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

I agree with your assessment, but really am concerned that the wild card in November is having the college kids back in Madison and Milwaukee in school. Walker and the GOP needs to come up with a plan to put a stop to the fraud.


9 posted on 06/08/2012 3:32:11 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: neverdem
The Rats are whistling past the graveyard. They know darn well that people lie to exist pollsters. Especially in the case of Barry. The folks don't want to appear 'racist'.

And iirc 'exit polls showed' Walker and that other guy [/s] tied at 50-50 (ooooops) but Walker won by Seven. So Rats better consider the same factor with Barry's number.

If I was Bigfoot I'd start getting quotes from moving companies asap. she ain't gonna be eating FREE French Fries and Pizza at 10:00pm much longer.

10 posted on 06/08/2012 3:52:18 AM PDT by Condor51 (Yo Hoffa, so you want to 'take out conservatives'. Well okay Jr - I'm your Huckleberry)
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To: scram2

Scam2 keep that to yourself. All the polling data is off. Calling people a racist as a strategy gets nothing but unintended consequences.


11 posted on 06/08/2012 4:03:51 AM PDT by magua
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To: Recon Dad

What Romney and the GOP need to do is hit the college campuses and tell these kids to wake up. Tell them that hope, change, class warfare and wealth redistribution isn’t going to pay their student loans and get them out of their parents house when they graduate. Obama has presided over the last four graduating classes - class of ‘09, ‘10, ‘11 and ‘12. Ask them if they want more of the same.


12 posted on 06/08/2012 4:08:54 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: jersey117

Well said. Go ahead and ask them if they look forward to spending the upcoming years in their parents basement, if not wakeup!


13 posted on 06/08/2012 4:13:31 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: neverdem

“If I say something bad about the Black guy they’ll think I’m a racist.”


14 posted on 06/08/2012 4:31:56 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Recon Dad

We need to fight for the students votes. There is no reason to concede them to the demo rats. They deserve every opportunity their parents had. I think we have a shot at chipping away a good portion of their votes. Maybe the ultra liberal colleges are lost but we surely can hit the state schools in fly over country where 80,000 all American kids will fill football stadiums in the Fall.


15 posted on 06/08/2012 4:35:33 AM PDT by jersey117
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With union thug ears lurking everywhere in the polling area does anyone really believe the respondents answered the questions honestly? Cement shoes were waiting for anyone that didn't tow the union line.
16 posted on 06/08/2012 4:50:44 AM PDT by USCG SimTech (Honored to serve since '71)
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To: neverdem
why would anyone believe that those same voters won't vote the same way come november???
17 posted on 06/08/2012 4:51:57 AM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: pepsionice

The Wisconsin voters are fed up of the continuing electioneering, the lies, the whining,the lack of any plan for going forward, etc from the Democrats.

Gov Walker stood up to and beat a sacred cow in Wisconsin that has controlled the legislature and school boards.

This will create a major change and I expect more states to follow. The public unions are bankrupt and losing 50% of its membership. So the DP will lose much of its cash support from the unions.

The independents know that Gov Walker actions have helped Wisconsin in a defict turned surplus without raising taxes and small property tax decreases for the first time in decades.

Wisconsin is expected to support Romney in November. The WI rats are very upset that Obama did not come to Wisconsin. They see the DP as the party of failure.

Just compare the financial picture of WI to Illinois to show what good leadership can do for a state.

Wisconsin under Walker is going “FORWARD”.


18 posted on 06/08/2012 4:54:24 AM PDT by ADSUM (Body of Christ is the Church, gathered around the crucified risen Lord and fed by Him in Communion.)
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To: jersey117
University of Wisconsin in Madison maybe flyover country, but it's the Midwest version of UC Berkeley or Columbia. Reason and logic might find a home at Indian U or Iowa and even Ohio State.

Stay in prayer for the future.

19 posted on 06/08/2012 4:55:27 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: neverdem

The Ministry of Propaganda will always skew towards the incumbent they have supported.

IMHO


20 posted on 06/08/2012 5:27:36 AM PDT by ripley
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To: neverdem

I would never respond to a poll.


21 posted on 06/08/2012 6:58:29 AM PDT by GOPJ (Take your little hammer, little sickle and your scary red signs with a fist on it, and go home...)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


22 posted on 06/08/2012 8:45:21 AM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: magua

I believe you have misunderstood what I said.

Those that in effect say “Yeah sure I like the black guy” are not the racists. They say that so they don’t have to face charges or questions of racism if they say they do not like him or his policies or the job he has done.

It is less of a hassle to agree with what is expected of you by the Obamabots and go on your way leaving them happy and you to vote your true feelings in peace.


23 posted on 06/08/2012 8:54:46 AM PDT by scram2
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To: neverdem

In that environment with SEIU running around demanding the head of Scott Walker, with such OBOTS, do you really think that many people would utter the words Romney?

Add +10 % just for fear and intimidation factor to Romney


24 posted on 06/08/2012 4:11:28 PM PDT by Munz (All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks neverdem.


25 posted on 06/08/2012 6:13:13 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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