Posted on 10/29/2011 4:52:09 AM PDT by blam
GOLDMAN: Stop Kidding Yourself, The Economy Is Weak And Got Worse In October
Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 29, 2011, 5:28 AM
Goldman's own proprietary Goldman Sachs Analyst Index does not reflect the modest cheer that people are feeling about the economy.
Remember, this past week, Q3 GDP came in at 2.5%, nearly double the pace of the previous month. And the stock market has rebounded sharply thanks to a surprise string of stronger-than-expected economic data.
But don't get too excited.
From Goldman's Shuyan Wu
The GSAI fell 0.9 points from 43.3 in September to 42.4 in October. This is the third straight decline since July, and the second straight month that the headline index has registered below the 50 mark (a sub-50 reading implies that more analysts see contraction in their sectors than expansion). Consequently, the 3-month rolling average dipped below 50 to 45.8 for the first time since September 2009. Declines in the headline index contrast with the small improvement in the September ISM manufacturing report (see Exhibit 1) as well as other reports such as the Philadelphia Fed survey and today’s third-quarter GDP release.
The drop in the composite index was due to declines in the sales/shipments index and the materials prices index, which fell to 37.9 and 46.2 points, respectively. While the orders index saw a small improvement from 28.6 in September, it remains at a still-low 33.3. Moreover, a sharp rise in the inventory index led to a further deterioration in the orders vs. inventories gap. As shown in Exhibit 2 below, this gap is now at the most negative level since January 2009, and it looks significantly worse than in the ISM manufacturing index (see Exhibit 2). (As a reminder, we construct the headline GSAI using the following weights:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
For now, anyway. I was pretty sure we'd be in negative GDP by now, but apparently not. Of course 2.5% is really just over .6% growth for the quarter. Interesting things are so bad that a little more than 1/2% growth is big news.
But it's not a double-dip -- I'll grant you that.
When Nancy Pelosi became Speaker the DOW was at 12,398 and that was almost five years ago.
Exactly. The GDP number is a consumption number, and it’s only on the plus side thanks to borrowing money.
dire.
but the administration’s numbers the other day
were not dire. /s
Student Football tickets are 40.00
As of Wednesday they still had student tickets available.
Its the economy, stupid.
That 2.5% number will be revised down as usual...to about half of what they claim now...there is no double dip because we never left the last recession and are still spiraling downward. I hate when clowns keep crowing about the “double dip”
Thanks blam.
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