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Keyword: recession

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  • US weekly jobless claims total 274,000 vs 271,000 estimate

    05/21/2015 5:30:16 AM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 3 replies
    First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were expected to total 271,000 in the most recent week, up from 264,000 reported a week earlier.
  • 40 percent of unemployed have quit looking for jobs

    05/20/2015 9:30:24 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 36 replies
    At a time when 8.5 million Americans still don't have jobs, some 40 percent have given up even looking. The revelation, contained in a new survey Wednesday showing how much work needs to be done yet in the U.S. labor market, comes as the labor force participation rate remains mired near 37-year lows. A tight jobs market, the skills gap between what employers want and what prospective employees have to offer, and a benefits program that, while curtailed from its recession level, still remains obliging have combined to keep workers on the sidelines, according to a Harris poll of 1,553...
  • How Government Inaction Ended the Depression of 1921

    05/20/2015 7:42:14 AM PDT · by all the best · 4 replies
    Mises Institute ^ | May 20, 2015 | Llewellyn Rockwell
    As the financial crisis of 2008 took shape, the policy recommendations were not slow in coming: why, economic stability and American prosperity demand fiscal and monetary stimulus to jump-start the sick economy back to life. And so we got fiscal stimulus, as well as a program of monetary expansion without precedent in US history. David Stockman recently noted that we have in effect had fifteen solid years of stimulus — not just the high-profile programs like the $700 billion TARP and the $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, but also $4 trillion of money printing and 165 out of 180 months...
  • Shares struggle after data raises more questions on U.S. economy (U.S. economy shrank 0.9 percent?)

    05/17/2015 6:07:46 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 16 replies
    Coming on the heels of weak retail sales and producer inflation data, the reports stoked concerns that the U.S. economy is hardly gaining momentum after disappointing 0.2 percent annualized growth in January-March. "U.S. GDP will likely be revised down in the next update to show a contraction. We estimate the U.S. economy shrank 0.9 percent," said Shuji Shirota, head of macro economics strategy group at HSBC in Tokyo.
  • The U.S. economy has left behind 20 million Americans

    05/15/2015 8:00:05 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 16 replies
    Market Watch ^ | 13 May 2015 | Howard Gold
    About 10% of adults of working age have at best marginal ties with the economy ___ Last month, when Baltimore was burning after a young African-American man died in police custody (six officers were subsequently charged), I did a Google search to find what David Simon thought about it. Simon, a former reporter for the Baltimore Sun, was the creator and show runner of “The Wire,” which ran for five seasons on HBO and which Entertainment Weekly called the greatest television show ever. It was a brilliant narrative of the struggle for survival in a violent, drug-riddled Baltimore neighborhood much...
  • The U.S. Economy Just Had Its Worst Month Since the Recession

    05/15/2015 8:44:52 AM PDT · by Theoria · 29 replies
    WSJ ^ | 14 May 2015 | Ben Leubsdorf
    The U.S. economy had a really bad March, the worst since the financial crisis. But don’t panic.The broadest gauge of U.S. economic output, from the Commerce Department, tracks the economy on a quarterly basis. The private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers provides a measure to track gross domestic product on a monthly basis, highlighting some of the volatility that gets smoothed out in the official quarterly figures.Macroeconomic Advisers on Thursday said its monthly estimate showed GDP fell an inflation-adjusted 1% in March, the largest drop since December 2008, “when the U.S. economy was in the throes of recession,” the firm said. Monthly GDP...
  • Fox News Poll: Voters believe White House incompetent, US still in recession and ISIS has moved…

    05/14/2015 11:05:21 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 28 replies
    Fox News ^ | May 15, 2015 | Dana Blanton
    Majorities of voters feel the country is still in recession, think terrorists are living in their hometown and rate the Obama White House handling of the government as incompetent. Those are some of the findings from the latest Fox News poll released Thursday. Six in 10 voters think it is likely terrorists are living in their hometown (60 percent). That’s up from 48 percent who felt that way in 2007, the last time the question was asked, and back to about what it was nine months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In June 2002, 58 percent thought terrorists were in...
  • U.S. capital spending seen falling to four-year low in 2015

    05/14/2015 4:09:32 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 1 replies
    NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. corporate spending on capital projects could fall this year to the lowest level since 2011, with steep reductions by the energy industry and companies in other sectors cutting spending amid broad concerns about global growth. Among the S&P sectors, only the materials and financials sectors expect to spend more in 2015 than they did last year, according to a Thomson Reuters analysis of spending outlooks from the 255 S&P 500 companies that have offered guidance on their capex for the year.
  • Markets More: HSBC Bearish HSBC WARNS: The world economy faces a 'titanic problem'

    05/14/2015 6:15:18 AM PDT · by bushwon · 32 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 5/13/2015 | Stephen King
    HSBC chief economist Stephen King is already thinking about the next recession. In a note to clients Wednesday, he warns: "The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats. If another recession hits, it could be a truly titanic struggle for policymakers." Here's King (emphasis added): Whereas previous recoveries have enabled monetary and fiscal policymakers to replenish their ammunition, this recovery — both in the US and elsewhere — has been distinguished by a persistent munitions shortage. This is a major problem. In all recessions since the 1970s, the US Fed funds rate has fallen by a minimum of...
  • Q2 GDP Forecast Cut To 0.7% By Atlanta Fed

    05/13/2015 11:34:01 AM PDT · by tcrlaf · 4 replies
    Zerohedge ^ | 5-13-2015 | Durden
    Zero Hedge first brought attention to the Atlanta Fed over two months ago, when the first massive divergence between bullish consensus and objective reality appeared. Since then it has been nothing but a downhill race for reality, with consensus scrambling to catch up. Moments ago, the Atlanta Fed just cut its Q2 GDP forecast once more, this time to 0.7% from 0.8%. This is on the back of a Q1 GDP which as of this moments is around -1.0%. From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of...
  • The US Is In Recession According To These 7 Charts

    05/13/2015 8:23:50 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 17 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 05/13/2015 | Tyler Durden
    The evidence continues to mount..."Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists...  Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government's official ministries of truth... (do not look at this chart)*  *  *So here are seven charts that scream "recession" is here...Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession... And if Retail Sales are weak, then...
  • The Pain the Job Numbers Don’t Show: Core of America’s workforce hasn’t recovered from recession.

    05/09/2015 10:19:05 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    Fiscal Times ^ | 05/09/2015 | By Rob Garver
    It seems almost ungrateful to complain about the announcement that the U.S. added 223,000 jobs to the economy in April, dropping the official unemployment rate to 5.4 percent, particularly after the dismal showing in March. Economists saw those numbers as reason for a “sigh of relief,” as one put it. But the truth is that for many American workers, the jobs recovery hasn’t yet provided real relief — and there is still a lot of ground to cover before the country can be said to have truly recovered the losses from the Great Recession. The labor force participation rate remains...
  • Obama: I should have said that the recovery would take a really long time in 2008

    04/11/2015 5:22:22 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 37 replies
    Hotair ^ | 04/11/2015 | NOAH ROTHMAN
    Regrets, he’s had a few. But most of them have had to do with the rosy picture he painted of what the economy would look like following a swift infusion of “Obamanomics.” The president spent much of his time on the post-campaign campaign trail in 2009 promising that the unprecedented sum of money passed by Congress as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the stimulus) would have a speedy and positive effect on the economy. Roads, bridges, and “shovel-ready” jobs would quickly put Americans back to work. When that massive sum of borrowed money failed to have...
  • Why the middle class is doing even worse than you think (the "green shoots" are long dead)

    04/08/2015 3:58:23 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 14 replies
    One of the great mysteries about the U.S. economy today is the discrepancy between the objective and subjective pictures we have of the middle class. The numbers say that the middle class is doing OK or even improving its lot; middle class families themselves say they're being crushed under economic hobnail boots. ..... They combine the approaches and solve the mystery. In effect, they've shifted from defining middle class as merely anyone earning a middle-income to defining the class as a fairly stable demographic group and looking at how it's doing relative to middle income. By defining the middle class...
  • Something weird is going on --Investor Thread March 29, 2015

    03/28/2015 3:17:44 PM PDT · by expat_panama · 81 replies
    Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Mar. 29, 2015 | Freeper Investors
    (excerpt from)    Something weird is going on in the US economy, and it's not good...Despite experiencing a healthy pace of job growth, the US economy has largely disappointed economists' expectations by delivering a series of weaker-than-expected economic reports. The unexpected plunges in retail sales and durable goods orders stand out as they reflect weakness in both consumers and businesses. On Wednesday, Bloomberg LP Chief Economist Michael McDonough tweeted a chart of the unprecedented divergence between job growth and retail sales growth. This is concerning as personal consumption accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP. It's particularly concerning considering all...
  • McDonald's Latest Sales Are Worse Than Expected

    03/09/2015 4:13:51 PM PDT · by SkyPilot · 212 replies
    Forbes ^ | 9 March 15 | Staff
    McDonald's MCD +0.6% worldwide sales fell a more than expected 1.7% in February, marking nine consecutive months of declines. This comes a week after new CEO Steve Easterbrook assumed the top job. Easterbrook, who has said he considers himself an ‘internal activist,’ is faced with reviving the lagging sales that cost previous CEO Don Thompson his job. U.S. sales fell 4%, as the fast food giant continues to face heavy competition from fast casual chains like Chipotle and Panera. “Consumer needs and preferences have changed,” said the company in a statement. “McDonald’s current performance reflects the urgent need to evolve...
  • New Orders Look Recessionary [So Why Is The Financial News Astonishingly Rosy?]

    03/09/2015 8:34:01 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 13 replies
    Of Two Minds ^ | 03/09/2015 | Charles Hugh-Smith
    The financial news is astonishingly rosy: record trade surpluses in China, positive surprises in Europe, the best run of new jobs added to the U.S. economy since the go-go 1990s, and the gift that keeps on giving to consumers everywhere, low oil prices. So if everything is so fantastic, why are new orders cratering? New orders are a snapshot of future demand, as opposed to current retail sales or orders that have been delivered. Like most other economic data, the series is noisy, meaning there are plenty of spikes up and down. To cut through the clutter, we look for trends and patterns,...
  • Soft U.S. data hints at near-term hiccup in economic growth

    03/05/2015 12:59:56 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 12 replies
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid last week rose to its highest level since May, but economists dismissed the increase as weather-related and said the jobs market remained solid. They were also little perturbed by other data on Thursday that showed factory orders fell in January for a sixth straight month and fourth-quarter productivity declined by more than initially thought.
  • An economic riddle: Where are all the construction workers?

    02/28/2015 10:57:18 AM PST · by posterchild · 48 replies
    finance.yahoo.com ^ | Feb 27, 2015 | Michael Santoli
    The housing bust and Great Recession might have scared a generation of would-be construction workers away from the building trades. That’s the strong suggestion of some new research by the Federal Reserve, which explored why shortages of construction workers are emerging even as large numbers of people who seem good candidates for that type of work remain under-employed. A working paper by Fed economist Andrew Paciorek notes that construction employment growth has badly lagged the recovery in the labor market as a whole.
  • Another Recession is on the way

    02/28/2015 9:43:53 AM PST · by Kaslin · 22 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 28, 2015 | Mike Shedlock
    In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened. 50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00% Investigating the Record By the way, the ECRI was late in calling the recession of 2007. They still deny it. And questions regarding the 2001 recession and ECRI have still not been answered. I have talked about all of this...
  • Greenspan: Effective demand as weak as during Depression

    02/26/2015 5:41:52 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 25 replies
    The fact that the market is anticipating that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, yet the yields on the 10- and 30-year Treasurys are falling is an indication of how weak the overall global economy is, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Thursday. In fact, effective demand is extraordinarily weak, he said. "The way I measure it, it's probably tantamount to what we saw in the later stages of the Great Depression," Greenspan said in an interview with "Closing Bell." That said, he acknowledged "it's not anywhere near what the problems were back then but we haven't...
  • Federal Reserve Insider Alan Greenspan Warns:There Will Be a “Significant Market EventSomething Big

    With the Federal Reserve printing trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep the economic system afloat, many investors and financial pundits have surmised that the fundamental economic problems facing the United States during the crash of 2008 have been resolved. Stocks are, after all, at historic highs. But the insiders know different. And if there’s any single person out there who understands U.S. monetary policy and its long-term effects on domestic and global affairs it’s former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. As the head of the world’s most powerful central bank for nearly two decades he’s privy to the insider...
  • Jeb Bush cannot escape his brother's undeniably disastrous presidency

    02/17/2015 4:08:57 AM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 27 replies
    The Week ^ | February 17, 2015 | Ryu Spaeth
    Earlier this year, Mitt Romney had a Galadriel moment. He appeared to be briefly seized by a vision of himself as an all-powerful, world-striding President Romney, before turning away from temptation and settling for the plain old Mitt Romney he has always been. It was political theater at its most bizarre, a flack-driven frenzy that doubled as a flashback to the self-delusion that blinded the Romney 2012 campaign in its final days. With Romney now out of the way, Jeb Bush has consolidated the support of the GOP's moneyed class with surprising alacrity. As Politico noted last week, the contest...
  • Japan's Recession Is Over

    02/15/2015 4:22:40 PM PST · by blam · 13 replies
    BI ^ | 2-15-2015 | Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters
    Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters Februry 15, 2015 TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy rebounded from recession to grow an annualized 2.2 percent in the final quarter of last year, giving a much-needed boost to premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to shake off decades of stagnation even as the global outlook deteriorates. But the expansion was smaller than a 3.7 percent increase forecast in a Reuters poll, suggesting a fragile recovery for the world's third-largest economy as consumer mood remained soft and uneven global growth weighed on exports. Still, the return to growth will allow the Bank of Japan to hold...
  • The Latest Merger... and the Big Lie of the Obama Recovery

    02/13/2015 10:57:33 AM PST · by jfd1776 · 9 replies
    Illinois Review ^ | February 13, 2015 A.D. | John F. Di Leo
    This week’s business news concerns yet another high profile corporate merger. Less than two years after office supply and computer retailers Office Depot and Office Max were forced into a merger, it now looks like Staples will be acquiring them. Where once there were three retailers, soon (or eventually, since such consolidations do take time), there will be only one. The Resident of the White House, no doubt remembering that the success of Staples was an early credit to his rival Mitt Romney’s storied career as an investment wizard, lost no time in taking pot-shots against Staples for its employee...
  • Net U.S. Job Gains Since The Recession Have Gone To Foreign-Born Workers

    02/06/2015 3:08:39 PM PST · by Nachum · 11 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 2/6/15 | Caroline May
    In the months and years since the recession began in December 2007, foreign-born workers have experienced a net increase in employment, while native-born Americans have experienced a net loss. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated employment data Friday. The new BLS figures reveal that since the start of the recession in 2007 — which is said to have ended in June 2009 — the number of foreign workers employed in the United States rose by 1.7 million. In December 2007 the number of foreign-born workers was 22,810,000 by January 2009 the number has increased to 24,553,000. Meanwhile the number...
  • Oil tumbles; U.S. crude prices near six-year low on record stockpiles

    01/28/2015 5:10:53 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 31 replies
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil slumped on Wednesday, with U.S. crude prices at near six-year lows, after the government reported record-high inventories in the United States that raised anxieties about the global oil glut that had pressured the market since last summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude oil stocks rose by almost 9 million barrels last week to reach nearly 407 million, their highest since the government began keeping records in 1982.
  • "Equities Will Be Devastated" Odey Warns, Looming Recession Will Be "Remembered For 100 Years"

    01/28/2015 6:14:36 AM PST · by blam · 24 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | Crispin Odey - Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden - Crispin Odey January 28, 2015 "I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009. Odey Asset...
  • EBay CFO: It will get worse before it gets better (laying off 2,400)

    01/21/2015 5:45:00 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 53 replies
    During the company's earnings call, eBay Chief Financial Officer Bob Swan said 2015 would present "real challenges" and forecast that "it will get worse before it gets better." Separately, the company said it entered into an agreement with billionaire activist Carl Icahn, the company's largest active shareholder, and will appoint Jonathan Christodoro, Icahn's pick, to its board.
  • One Of The Best Predictors Of Recessions Is Rapidly Approaching The Here-Comes-A-Recession Level

    01/15/2015 9:16:59 AM PST · by blam · 45 replies
    BI ^ | 1-15-2015 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland January 15, 2015 Here's a word no one wants to hear: "recession." Headline payroll gains were strong in 2014 and GDP growth has been above 3% in four of the last five quarters. So everything is good, right? Well, one indicator that has a perfect record of predicting recessions is creeping towards some uncomfortable levels: the yield curve. The yield curve, or the interest rate paid on the range of US Treasury bonds, typically ranges from low to high: the shortest duration bills are paid the least interest, with investors earning additional yield for lending the government for...
  • Venezuela confirms recession, highest inflation in Americas

    12/31/2014 4:16:20 AM PST · by C19fan · 7 replies
    Reuters ^ | December 30, 2014 | Staff
    Venezuela confirmed on Tuesday it had entered a recession while inflation remained the highest in the Americas, and President Nicolas Maduro's socialist government blamed political foes for the dismal data. The Central Bank said gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in each of the first three quarters: 4.8 percent, 4.9 percent and 2.3 percent. Twelve-month inflation reached 63.6 percent in November.
  • An Economic Indicator That Predicted The Last 7 Recessions Predicts No Recession Any Time Soon

    12/18/2014 8:03:43 PM PST · by blam · 23 replies
    BI - Guggenheim Partners ^ | 12-18-2014 | Scott Minerd
    Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners December 18, 2014 Plunging oil markets and faltering growth expectations around the world have raised fears about the sustainability of the current U.S. economic expansion. The economic data, though, suggest that these fears are largely unfounded. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which is made up of 10 forward-looking economic and financial indicators, has not fallen since January and has been gaining momentum throughout the year. (snip)
  • The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind

    12/11/2014 3:45:29 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 57 replies
    The New York Times ^ | December 11, 2014 | Binyamin Appelbaum
    ANNAPOLIS, Md. — Frank Walsh still pays dues to the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, but more than four years have passed since his name was called at the union hall where the few available jobs are distributed. Mr. Walsh, his wife and two children live on her part-time income and a small inheritance from his mother, which is running out. Sitting in the food court at a mall near his Maryland home, he sees some of the restaurants are hiring. He says he can’t wait much longer to find a job. But he’s not ready yet. “I’d work for...
  • Japan's third-quarter economic contraction bigger than expected

    12/07/2014 5:33:32 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 14 replies
    TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economic contraction in July-September was deeper than initially expected on declines in capital expenditure, according to revised data on Monday that backs Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's recent decision to delay a second sales tax hike. The data indicated that the hit from April's sales tax hike turned out to be bigger than expected. Abe, who has called a snap poll for Sunday, hopes voters will agree that his stimulus policies and a decision to delay a second sales tax hike next year will revive a sputtering economy.
  • Russia Is Falling Into A Recession (Oil Price Crash)

    12/02/2014 6:21:33 AM PST · by blam · 14 replies
    BI ^ | 12-2-2014 | Tomas Hirst
    Tomas Hirst December 2, 2014Russia's Economy Ministry has downgraded its GDP forecast for the country in 2015 from 1.2% growth to a 0.8% contraction. In other words, the country is falling into a recession. The net amount of foreign capital expected to flow out of the country in 2014 has been revised sharply upward to $125 billion (up from $100 billion), while the projection of net outflows for next year has also been increased, to $90 billion from $50 billion. The independent Russian news agency Interfax reports Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev as saying that the downgrade reflects the...
  • Japan's slip into surprise recession paves way for tax delay, snap poll

    11/17/2014 1:28:46 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    Reuters ^ | 11/17/2014 | LEIKA KIHARA AND LINDA SIEG
    Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in the third quarter, setting the stage for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike and call a snap election two years before he has to go to the polls. The recession comes nearly two years after Abe returned to power promising to revive the economy with his "Abenomics" mix of massive monetary stimulus, spending and reforms, and is unwelcome news for an already shaky global economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by an annualised 1.6 percent in July-September, after plunging 7.3 percent in the second quarter following a rise...
  • Japan in recession as economy contracts 1.6 pct

    11/16/2014 5:38:02 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 4 replies
    Associated Press ^ | Nov 16, 2014 8:30 PM EST | Elaine Kurtenbach
    Japan reported Monday that its economy contracted at a real annual rate of 1.6 percent in July-September, in a second straight quarterly decline that returned the country to recession. A 24.1 percent plunge in private residential investment from a year earlier failed to offset a modest recovery in exports and a 1.5 percent increase in household spending. Most economists had forecast that the world’s third-biggest economy would expand at about a 2 percent pace. The negative growth figure was much lower than expected and makes it very likely Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will delay implementation of a sales tax hike...
  • Wal-Mart 'urgent' memo urges improvement at U.S. stores: NYT

    11/12/2014 5:36:14 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 152 replies
    Reuters ^ | 12 Nov 14 | Reuters staff
    Wal-Mart stores Inc issued an "urgent agenda" memo to its store managers across the United States last month, laying out guidelines to boost sales of "chilled and fresh" food, the New York Times reported. The memo, marked "highly sensitive", asks Wal-Mart marketing managers to make sure they discount aging meat and baked goods to maximize chances of selling them before their expiration dates, according to the report. Wal-Mart, which has posted six straight quarters of flat or declining same-store sales growth, has been battling a stronger dollar and a reduction in U.S. food stamp benefits, which has eaten into...
  • A Tiny Firm That Saw The 1929 Crash Coming Sees Trouble For 2015

    11/10/2014 6:31:14 AM PST · by blam · 31 replies
    BI ^ | 11-10-2014 | Elena Holodny
    Elena Holodny November 10, 2014A small firm that predicted the market crash back in 1929 is back with an ominous message. According to Bloomberg, the Jerome Levy Forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015. "Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn," said David Levy, the chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. Levy's forecasts contrasts with the Wall Street consensus, which is confident growth will continue for years. Back in 1929, Jerome Levy — grandfather of now chairman David Levy — "didn't like what he saw...
  • Inflation: Not Entirely Tame (Captain Obvious Alert!)

    10/25/2014 2:54:44 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 9 replies
    The graph above shows that after years of holding back inflation rates, the rate of housing inflation is boosting the rate of inflation. Month-to-month housing inflation was up 0.3% compared with the overall inflation rate of 0.1%. It's not just a one-month phenomenon, either, as year-over-year shelter price increases were up 3.0% versus 1.7% for the overall rate of inflation. Unfortunately, shelter is the single biggest component of the CPI calculation, so big moves here are magnified. For some perspective, gasoline is 5% and food is 14% of the CPI calculation. The good news is that consumers, with locked-in mortgages,...
  • Europe must drop the euro, Germany abandon mercantilism

    10/20/2014 2:25:51 PM PDT · by EBH · 5 replies
    UPI ^ | 10/20/2014 | Peter Moricici
    Europe faces yet another recession, and the prospect is shaking global financial markets. To eliminate the persistent threat of collapse, Europe must drop the euro, and Germany must abandon mercantilism. When the euro was adopted in 1999, domestic prices -- the face values for bonds and loans -- and bank accounts were translated into euros according to prevailing exchange rates for national currencies at the time. Initially, the single currency posed few significant problems. Over time, however, differences in labor market policies and geographic conditions that are difficult for governments to alter caused productivity to grow more rapidly in Germany...
  • EU's triple whammy: Recession, deflation, and debt

    10/16/2014 7:34:02 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/16/2014 | Rick Moran
    Here we go again. Another sovereign debt crisis on the periphery of the EU is underway and many of the same factors that led to previous debt meltdowns are present. Germany is headed for a triple dip recession. Continent-wide deflation is nearly a reality. And many EU nations are smashing the debt limits demanded by treaty, thus threatening the Euro itself. All of this is impacting the percentage of debt in relation to GDP in several countries, making government bonds more expensive and debt servicing a nightmare. The Hill: Among Europe's most recent economic tremors has been the growing evidence...
  • Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble

    10/10/2014 8:20:18 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 4 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 10/10/2014 | By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Germany’s exports are falling at the fastest rate since the global crisis in 2009, raising fears of a triple-dip recession and a disastrous relapse for the rest of the eurozone. The country’s five economic institutes - or "Wise Men" - slashed their growth forecast for Germany from 2pc to 1.2pc next year, warning that the latest measures unveiled by the European Central Bank will add “hardly any” extra stimulus to the real economy and may be unworkable. Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the eurozone is at “serious risk” of falling back into recession if...
  • Eurozone in danger of repeating Japanese stagnation, IMF chief warns

    10/10/2014 6:07:07 AM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 10 replies
    euobserver ^ | 2014/10/10 | Benjamin Fox
    Eurozone in danger of repeating Japanese stagnation, IMF chief warns By Benjamin Fox BRUSSELS - International Monetary Fund boss Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone risks following Japan and falling into a prolonged cycle of recession and stagnation. Speaking on Thursday (9 October) ahead of the IMF's annual meeting in Washington DC, Lagarde said: “We have also alerted to the risk of recession in the eurozone", putting the likelihood of a drop in output at "between 35-40%, which is not insignificant". “We are not saying that the eurozone is heading towards recession, but we are saying that there is...
  • Europe's Triple-Dip Recession Arrives: German Industrial Production Crashes Most Since February 2009

    10/07/2014 7:19:41 AM PDT · by blam · 4 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 10-6-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden 10/07/2014Yesterday it was German manufacturing orders which cratered 5.7% in August following a freak, 4.9% rebound in July, prompting Goldman to warn that "the underlying dynamic has weakened further at the end of Q3" ... ... And then a few hours ago we finally got undeniable confirmation that Europe is once again in recession, its third since Lehman, only this one is worse: it is led by the "core" countries, with Germany in the forefront, a Germany which just reported industrial output which suffered its biggest monthly decline in more than five years in August. Specifically, German IP...
  • The Great Recession: The financial crisis that keeps on giving

    09/29/2014 2:01:22 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    Los Angeles Times ^ | 09/29/2014 | SCOTT MARTELLE
    The Great Recession has lasted a lot longer for some than for others. A new survey from Rutgers University’s John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development found that “one in five workers - or nearly 30 million people - say they were laid off from a job in the past five years," dating back to the end of the recession in June 2009. "Nearly 4 in 10 of these laid-off workers say they searched for a job for more than seven months before finding another one; one in five workers laid off during the past five years never found another...
  • Tom Friedman says Reagan had it easy compared to Obama

    09/28/2014 11:53:42 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 60 replies
    American Thinker ^ | September 28, 2014 | Thomas Lifson
    The rationalizations for Obama’s failures are already beginning, and Tom Friedman employs the laziest of all strategies, tearing down a great man to make a small man look bigger. In his Sunday column in the New York Times, Friedman makes a number of highly dubious points. These days there is a lot of “if-only-Obama-could-lead-like-Reagan” talk by conservatives. I’ll leave it to historians to figure out years from now who was the better president. On the question of the domestic economy, there can be little doubt. Reagan inherited far higher unemployment and high inflation, and within a year or so had...
  • For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

    09/11/2014 7:03:28 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 23 replies
    Street Talk Live ^ | 09/11/2014 | Lance Roberts
    Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes. The 2013 survey confirms statements I have made previously regarding the Fed's monetary interventions leaving the majority of Americans behind: "While the ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve have certainly boosted asset prices higher, the only real accomplishment has been a widening of the wealth gap between the top 10% of individuals that have dollars invested in the financial markets and everyone else. What monetary interventions have failed to accomplish is an increase in production...
  • Biden Says Hoarders Are Retarding Economy

    09/07/2014 9:43:29 AM PDT · by John Semmens · 46 replies
    Semi-News/Semi-Satire ^ | 5 Sep 2014 | John Semmens
    Citing a paper released this week by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Vice-President Joe Biden blamed American consumers for the sluggish economy. “The government is doing everything it can to try to stimulate the economy,” Biden contended. “The federal government is spending every dollar it can get its hands on. The Federal Reserve is manufacturing new dollars at an unprecedented pace. But consumers are just sitting on their cash.” “Hoarding cash makes no sense,” the Veep argued. “The dollar’s purchasing power is being diluted on a daily basis by government policies. Spending your dollars before they lose even more value...
  • Rosenberg: The Next Recession Could Be 4 Years Away

    08/27/2014 7:06:48 AM PDT · by blam · 11 replies
    Pragmatic Capitalism ^ | 8-27-2014 | Cullen Roche
    Cullen Roche Wednesday, August 27th, 2014 Talk about a flip in perspective. David Rosenberg, who had been bearish for years, has turned into one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street. The Gluskin Sheff analyst now says his recession forecasting model could be pointing to another four years of economic expansion (via a recent note of his): (snip)