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Keyword: recession

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  • The Only Escape From A Global Depression

    07/18/2016 9:02:43 AM PDT · by blam · 28 replies
    The Daily Recokening ^ | 6-29-2016 | Richard Duncan
    Most people are convinced that the government is a drag on the economy, that it should not be allowed to spend any more money. They believe that we’ve spent far too much as it is. Therefore, they believe we must pay for our sins and spend less. It’ll be tough for a few years, they admit. But soon we’ll be back in the laissez-faire garden of Eden. That argument is dangerously wrong. It’s like someone taking a hot air balloon high up in the sky, then suddenly panicking because he’s too high. So he decides to turn off the hot...
  • The Amount Of Stuff Being Bought, Sold And Shipped Around The U.S. Hits The Lowest Level In 6 Years

    06/24/2016 2:39:40 PM PDT · by blam · 26 replies
    TEC ^ | 6-23-20165 | Michael Snyder
    Michael Snyder June 23rd, 2016 When less stuff is being bought, sold and shipped around the country with each passing month, how in the world can the U.S. economy be in “good shape”? Unlike official government statistics which are often based largely on projections, assumptions and numbers seemingly made up out of thin air, the Cass Freight index is based on real transactions conducted by real shipping companies. And what the Cass Freight Index is telling us about the state of the U.S. economy in 2016 lines up perfectly with all of the other statistics that are clearly indicating that...
  • Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression

    06/21/2016 4:48:13 PM PDT · by blam · 67 replies
    TMO ^ | 6-21-2016 | Harry Dent
    Jun 21, 2016 Harry_Dent We all know the situation in the markets is dire. Like, really, everyone knows. There’s an old phrase from Margaret Thatcher’s day (and mine, I suppose) that has recently come back into use: There is no alternative. There’s even an acronym: TINA. There is no alternative example of a campaign advertising material of the CDU for the 1994 election for the Landtag of Thuringia. That’s quaint, and all, but this meatily numbered piece shows the heart of what that phrase means. There is no alternative, the markets will correct. They have to, regardless of how hard...
  • The left’s grand, green vision

    06/12/2016 3:55:48 PM PDT · by Tolerance Sucks Rocks · 10 replies
    The Washington Times ^ | June 5, 2016 | Stephen Moore
    Like a crazed serial killer, the liberal green groups are celebrating their “victory” of putting America’s major coal producers out of business — to say nothing of the tens of thousands of miners placed in unemployment lines. Several thousand more mining jobs were lost last month. Now to get their next homicidal high, the leftists have turned their ambitions on the oil and natural gas industries. Here is how the Sierra Club spokeswoman, Lena Moffit, explains the grand, green vision: “We have moved to a very clear and firm and vehement position of opposing gas. We oppose any new gas-fired...
  • Samuelson: The specter hanging over Clinton: a recession

    06/11/2016 5:36:54 AM PDT · by randita · 14 replies
    Richmond Times-Dispatch ^ | 6/10/16 | Robert Samuelson
    <p>Suppose you are advising Hillary Clinton, now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president. What worries you? Well, probably the stubbornness of Bernie Sanders, who won’t admit he’s lost. And, of course, the unpredictability of Donald Trump, whose outlandish pronouncements defy conventional political wisdom.</p>
  • If America falls into recession, Donald Trump will be our next president

    06/08/2016 7:44:07 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 40 replies
    The Week ^ | June 8, 2016 | James Pethokoukis
    f Donald Trump's presidential campaign were functional, this would be Economy Week for Team Trump. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee and his surrogates would be wielding the disappointing May jobs report as a cudgel to bash the lackluster "Obama-Clinton" recovery. After all, polls say jobs and the economy remain voters' biggest concern. And it's an issue in which Trump has a big lead over Clinton. A new Gallup poll gives the famed businessman a 10-point edge on "the economy" and a seven-point lead on "employment and jobs." But Trump isn't talking about the economy. Instead, he's attacking the Mexican heritage...
  • Shock Report on Jobs Signals Obama Economy Is on Brink of Recession

    06/04/2016 9:37:16 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 46 replies
    The New York Sun ^ | June 3, 2016 | Lawrence Kudlow
    The May jobs report is a shocker, with nonfarm payrolls up only 38,000 and private jobs up a mere 25,000. Investors and economists are making the case that this was a weird, one-off, statistical glitch and that stronger employment is on the way. They might well be wrong. If you smooth out the numbers with a three-month moving average, job increases have been slowing for five months. The three-month pace in December was 281,000 jobs. In the May report, the pace nosedived to 107,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, largely because 458,000 people left the labor force. This spells...
  • Macy's results reminiscent of financial crisis

    05/13/2016 4:25:09 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 56 replies
    CNBC ^ | 11 May 2016 | Krystina Gustafson
    Macy's dismal first-quarter results are bringing back unwelcome memories of the financial crisis, as the retailer on Wednesday reported two metrics that harken back to that period of economic malaise. During the first quarter, the department store chain said its comparable sales fell 5.6 percent. That marks a deceleration from its fourth-quarter same-store sales decline of 4.3 percent, and represents its most severe decrease in this metric since the second quarter of 2009. During that quarter, Macy's comparable sales slid 9.5 percent. Meanwhile, the retailer reported a 36 percent year-over-year drop in operating income. That not only marks its seventh...
  • "As Barack says, a three letter word: Jobs!" –Joe Biden

    05/11/2016 8:17:31 AM PDT · by NOBO2012 · 6 replies
    Michelle Obama's Mirror ^ | 5-11-2016 | MOTUS
    When the government jobs and economy report was released last Friday, it wasn’t quite as rosy as we’ve been led to believe: Economist Herbert Stein famously observed, "If something cannot continue, it will stop." Given other readings on the economy, the rapid growth in jobs that was reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for 4Q2015 and 1Q2016 could not continue. So, in April, it stopped. [ed. in other words, we lied about jobs growth,again.] Telling lies with statistics is so easy even a politician can do itFriday's BLS "Employment Situation" report was terrible. FTE* employment fell by 296,000,...
  • Surprise! Baltic Dry Index Plunges Most Since November As Commodity Bubble Bursts

    05/08/2016 3:05:04 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 32 replies
    zerohedge ^ | 07 May 2016 | Tyler Durden
    Who could have seen this coming? Remember a week ago when TV entertainers crowed about the surge in The Baltic Dry Freight Index was a "clear signal" that 'China is back' baby and that escape velocity growth was just around the corner as global growth was destined to pick up... Well, just as we warned very explicitly, the ramp in the index merely reflected the frenzied speculation in industrial metals by the Chinese and as authorities have cracked down on that idiocy, so the Baltic Dry has plunged by the most since November... as real demand punches back.
  • Rail Traffic Depression: 292 Union Pacific Engines Are Sitting In The Arizona Desert Doing Nothing

    05/08/2016 5:35:57 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 66 replies
    TEC ^ | 05/08/2016 | Michael Snyder
    We continue to get more evidence that the U.S. economy has entered a major downturn. Just last week, I wrote about how U.S. GDP growth numbers have been declining for three quarters in a row, and previously I wrote about how corporate defaults have surged to their highest level since the last financial crisis. Well, now we are getting some very depressing numbers from the rail industry. As you will see below, U.S. rail traffic was down more than 11 percent from a year ago in April. That is an absolutely catastrophic number, and the U.S. rail industry is feeling...
  • Freight Rail Traffic Plunges: Haunting Pictures of Transportation Recession

    05/06/2016 12:39:42 PM PDT · by Sgt_Schultze · 40 replies
    Wolf Street ^ | Wolf Richter | 4 May 2016
    292 Union Pacific engines idled in Arizona Desert Total US rail traffic in April plunged 11.8% from a year ago, the Association of American Railroads reported today. Carloads of bulk commodities such as coal, oil, grains, and chemicals plummeted 16.1% to 944,339 units. - snip - Only five of the 20 commodity categories saw gains. Of the decliners, coal was the biggest. But petroleum products also plunged 25%, and grain mill products dropped 7%. Even without coal, carloads were down 3% year-over-year.
  • Markets At Crossroads: Huge Moves Brewing In Stocks And Gold

    05/06/2016 4:50:52 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 34 replies
    Barchart ^ | May 05, 2016 | Taki Tsaklanos
    Seldom have we seen so many assets and indicators at decision points simultaneously! We see stocks, gold, and the U.S. dollar trading at extremely important levels, all in conjunction. Note that this is not according to technical analysis, but our intermarket analysis and chart patterns.First, as indicated in recent analysis, risk indicators in U.S. stocks have turned positive in recent weeks. That suggest a bullish outcome for stocks, almost exactly at their breakout level. We prefer to let the market do its work, and so far we have not seen a breakout. But there are sufficient signs that it is in the making. As stocks are testing key resistance, the U.S. dollar...
  • Obama Calls His Management of the US Economy "Best in Human History" [semi-satire]

    04/30/2016 10:57:50 AM PDT · by John Semmens · 2 replies
    Semi-News/Semi-Satire ^ | 1 May 2016 | John Semmens
    Despite declines in labor force participation, family income and home ownership juxtaposed to increases in poverty, debt, and health care costs, President Obama maintains that his Administration "probably managed the American economy better than any large economy on Earth in human history." The President lambasted critics who cite GDP statistics that show Obama to be the only president that has failed to deliver even a single year of 3% growth—making his the worst performing administration since Herbert Hoover's during the early years of the Great Depression. "Growth and prosperity aren't the only metrics by which we should judge what has...
  • Economic Growth Worst In Two Years As Investment, Durables Spending Fall

    04/29/2016 4:33:20 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 30 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | April 29, 2016 | JED GRAHAM
    After crawling ahead at just a 0.5% annual pace in the first quarter, the slowest in two years, the American economy is due for a bounce — but how high? The jury is out whether the economy has simply hit another speed bump or is facing a more fundamental slowdown, but some details in Thursday’s Commerce Department report point to the latter. U.S. GDP also fizzled at the start of 2014 and 2015, shrinking 0.9% in the former and edging up 0.6% last year... Yet it’s iffy whether the economy can rebound to the same extent... On the plus side,...
  • Is There Any Ammo Left for Recession Fighting?

    04/21/2016 3:54:23 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 16 replies
    Real Clear Markets ^ | April 21, 2016 | George Perry
    A government's arsenal for moderating business cycles consists of fiscal and monetary policy. But the U.S. has little scope for using either if a new recession should now emerge. The Fed has only limited options left for stimulating the economy. And political gridlock may prevent any timely injection of fiscal stimulus. How big are the risks we face, and are we really out of options? Fortunately, continued expansion is the central forecast for the U.S. economy today. Janet Yellen's public assessments of the outlook are screened less for signs that the economy may need renewed policy easing and more for...
  • Earnings Season: Will a Profits Recession Lead to an Economic One? [ALMOST ALWAYS DOES]

    04/12/2016 3:34:16 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 10 replies
    The Fiscal Times ^ | April 11, 2016 | Anthony Mirhaydari
    Investors are nervously awaiting the start of the first-quarter earnings season today when Alcoa (AA) reports after the close. Stocks and the economy are looking vulnerable, and hopes for corporate profits are not high. The first three months of the year look likely to be the worst quarter for earnings since 2009, with a 10.1 percent drop in S&P 500 profits expected, down from the 0.7 percent growth that was expected for the quarter back in December. The early optimism has since faded, driven largely by declines in energy sector estimates. Analysts are now bracing for the fourth consecutive quarter...
  • The Minimum Wage: Destruction Disguised as Justice

    04/08/2016 1:37:42 PM PDT · by jfd1776 · 13 replies
    Illinois Review ^ | April 8, 2016 A.D. | John F. Di Leo
    As cities contemplated doubling their minimum wage, conservatives warned that employers would flee. And that’s exactly what happened. Then as states contemplated doubling their statewide minimum wage, conservatives warned them again; but again their warnings were drowned out in the cacophonies of popular liberalism. So now California companies are already collecting bids from moving companies, and ordering new stationery for new digs in Arizona, Nevada, and of course, Texas. The destruction that minimum wage increases cause is no longer even denied by the left. Their politicians happily proudly admit the damage they do, even as they inflict these pains on...
  • Renewed requirement of work for SNAP recipients produces predictable liberal backlash

    04/03/2016 6:32:47 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 23 replies
    Hot ^ | April 3, 2016 | JAZZ SHAW
    There used to be a rule in place – part of the sadly abandoned movements toward welfare reform in the 80s and 90s – which required food stamps recipients to do at least some work in order to receive the benefits if they were childless and able bodied. That rule was suspended in most places since the beginning of the crash in 2007, but now that unemployment is allegedly back down to nominal levels and the economy is “stable” across most of the country, that exception is being rolled back. This, of course, has liberals up in arms. (WaPo) The...
  • U.S. consumer spending, trade data signal sluggish growth [INCOME and SPENDING up, INFLATION +0.1%]

    03/29/2016 4:20:54 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 15 replies
    Reuters ^ | Mon Mar 28, 2016 | Lucia Mutikani
    U.S. consumer spending barely rose in February and inflation retreated, suggesting the Federal Reserve could remain cautious about raising interest rates this year even as the labor market rapidly tightens. Monday's report from the Commerce Department also showed consumer spending in January was not as strong as previously reported. That, together with other data showing a widening in the goods trade deficit in February, indicated economic growth remained sluggish in the first quarter... ...Consumer spending edged up 0.1 percent as households cut back on goods purchases after a downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in January. Consumer spending, which accounts for...
  • Recession Risks Rising, Profits Fall by Most Since 2008

    03/25/2016 11:03:23 PM PDT · by entropy12 · 6 replies
    Newsmax ^ | Friday, 25 Mar 2016 04:27 PM | bloomie
    On the face of it, the economic update that the government is releasing on Friday should be a big yawn. Economists expect the revised numbers to confirm what we know already — that gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of just 1 percent in the final three months of 2015. But it would be a mistake to dismiss the release — even if you're off from work for the Easter holiday. That's because the government also will be publishing its first estimate of what happened to company profits in the period. And the news isn't expected to be...
  • Job totals trail pre-recession levels in 10 US states

    03/25/2016 9:22:44 AM PDT · by Olog-hai · 6 replies
    Associated Press ^ | Mar. 25, 2016 12:18 PM EDT | Christopher S. Rugaber
    Ten U.S. states still have not regained all the jobs they lost in the Great Recession, even after six and a half years of recovery, while many more have seen only modest gains. […] Wyoming had 3 percent fewer jobs last month than it did in December 2007, when the recession began, the Labor Department said Friday. That is the biggest percentage decline among the states. Alabama's job total trails its pre-recession level by 2.7 percent, followed by New Mexico, where job totals are 2.6 percent lower. Some larger states are also still behind. New Jersey has nearly 1 percent...
  • 6 Factors That Point to Global Recession in 2016

    03/13/2016 7:25:34 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 19 replies
    Investopedia ^ | 03/13/2016 | By Adam Hayes, CFA
    Less than a decade ago, the world economy sank into the Great Recession: the deepest and most widespread downturn since the Great Depression of the 1920s and '30s. Since the stock market crashed in 2008, recovery has been long and slow, marked by persistent bumps in the road along the way. Nonetheless, an economic recovery has, indeed, taken place. The S&P 500 index rose more than 92% over the past five years until market volatility kicked in during the second half of 2015. So far in 2016, the S&P 500 is down almost 9% since the start of the year....
  • Who Gets the Blame for the Slowing Economy? [NYT admits collapse, seeks new scapegoat]

    03/11/2016 4:05:00 AM PST · by expat_panama · 45 replies
    New York Times ^ | MARCH 10, 2016 | Steven Rattner
    ECONOMIC alarm bells are ringing: Financial markets have wilted. Forecasters have been slicing their projections for future growth. And some leading wise men — including the megabillionaire George Soros — are predicting a return to disastrous 2008 conditions. That’s almost certainly an overly pessimistic view. But without a doubt, the leading global economies are in a major slowdown. Not evident is whether another recession looms. While current data suggests... Governments alone are not to blame... For a start, global competition and weak productivity growth have held down wages in developed countries. That has depressed consumer spending, as have increased saving...
  • Fresh recession will cause eurozone collapse, warns Swiss bank

    03/02/2016 4:52:16 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 9 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 2 Mar 16 | Mehreen Khan
    A recession in Europe could lead to the collapse of the eurozone, as the single currency would buckle under the political turmoil unleashed by a fresh downturn, a leading investment bank has warned. In a research note titled "Close to the edge", economists at Swiss bank Credit Suisse warned the fate of monetary union hangs in the balance if Europe's policymakers are unable to ward off another global slump and quell anti-euro populism. "The viability of the euro is contingent on the current recovery," said Peter Foley at Credit Suisse. "If the euro area were to relapse back into...
  • Factories Are Weak, But It’s No Recession

    03/02/2016 4:29:41 AM PST · by expat_panama · 7 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | March 1, 2016 | JED GRAHAM
    ISM Index Near Breakeven Construction spending jumps as gov’t funds fuel spike in highway activity The goods sector is starting to carry more of the economic load. The Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday that its manufacturing index rose to a five-month high of 49.5 in February, up from 48.2 the prior month. While the headline index is still below the neutral 50 level, production and new orders both expanded at the fastest pace since August. Auto production doesn’t appear ready to cool, as February U.S. sales of cars and trucks rose to a 17.7 million annual pace. While General...
  • U.S. jobless claims up, but trend points to firming labour market (Pravadaesque)

    02/25/2016 6:24:31 AM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 11 replies
    WASHINGTON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week, but remained below levels consistent with a tightening labour market.
  • Recession 2016: In Some States, A Very Deep Economic Downturn Has Already Arrived

    02/23/2016 2:39:12 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 21 replies
    Economic Collapse ^ | 22 Feb 16 | Michael Snyder
    Did you know that there are some U.S. states that have already officially fallen into recession? Economic activity all over the planet is in the process of slowing down, and there are some areas of the country that are really starting to feel the pain. In particular, any state that is heavily dependent on the energy industry is hurting right now. During the years immediately following the last recession, the energy industry was the primary engine for the growth of good paying jobs in America, but now that process is completely reversing. All over the U.S. energy companies are...
  • The Recession Isn’t a Few Months Away ... It's Already Started

    02/21/2016 11:29:14 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 35 replies
    Economy and Markets Daily ^ | 02/21/2016 | Harry Dent
    So the S&P 500 is out of correction for now and the coast is clear. NOT! This is exactly what we've been predicting would happen – after reaching new lows, stocks would have to bounce before they inevitably resume their longer-term trend, which is down. But stocks haven't been the only victims of late. Just a couple weeks ago the January nonfarm payroll report came in at 151,000 jobs. So much for the expected 190,000! And of the ones reported, they were mostly low-wage jobs. Pile that on top of the disappointing Christmas and retail sales in December. Not to...
  • Stalling Tax Revenues Signal Job Market ‘Definitely Weakening’

    02/19/2016 3:54:04 AM PST · by expat_panama · 29 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | February 18, 2016 | JED GRAHAM
    The growth of federal income and employment tax withholdings, the broadest and most timely read on the health of the job market, has been sinking at an alarming rate. For most of 2015, tax withholdings rose at a rate of 5% or more from a year ago, a combination of solid job growth and gains in wages, commissions and other incentive pay. Revenue inflows to the Treasury Department steadily slowed through the fall... ...Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen touted "steady job gains" forecasting that "labor market indicators would continue to strengthen" -- there have been a few indications that things...
  • Humanity At A Crossroads: Deliberately Created Systemic Risk Coming Apart

    02/11/2016 11:35:42 AM PST · by IDontLikeToPayTaxes · 12 replies ^ | 11 Feb 2016 | Gregory Mannarino
    I've been watching this guy for a few years. He's a market analyst type that does a lot of commentary about the direction of the stock market and the economy in general. He's one of the few guys whose opinion I trust. He's been doing financial commentary for years and is also a medical doctor. Quite a resume! Anyway, enjoy! Here is the link: Today's market analysis: Humanity at a Crossroads
  • Yellen on negative rates: 'We wouldn't take those off the table' (Recession & pay fee to save money)

    02/11/2016 9:40:48 AM PST · by xzins · 122 replies
    CNBC ^ | 11 Feb 16 | Jeff Cox
    As recession fears mount in the U.S., Fed Chair Janet Yellen conceded there's a "chance" of a downturn ahead. Asked by Republican Sen. Bob Corker whether the monetary policy-making Federal Open Market Committee would consider going to negative interest rates, which would entail charging banks to store reserves at the Fed, Yellen left the door open. She repeated a statement she said Wednesday that the Fed had considered negative rates in 2010 but decided that wouldn't be the best course at that time. "We wouldn't take those off the table, but we have work to do to judge whether they...
  • How Fears About Recession Could Become A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

    02/10/2016 2:39:04 PM PST · by blam · 15 replies
    BI ^ | 2-10-2016 | Bob Bryan
    Bob BryanFeburary 10,2016The "r-word" — recession — has creeped back into the economic conversation in the US. And though weakness in manufacturing persists and the stock market has been rocky, the argument against a recession in the US is simple: the US consumer is fine. But what if they aren't? According to Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, there is a worry that a faltering stock market and a slower labor market could damage the psyche of consumers. And without consumer spending rolling — which accounts for around two-thirds of GDP — the economy faces the risk of contraction....
  • Citi: World economy seems trapped in 'death spiral'

    02/05/2016 12:08:31 PM PST · by HarleyLady27 · 28 replies
    CNBC ^ | Feb. 5, 2016 | Katy Barnato
    The global economy seems trapped in a "death spiral" that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned.
  • Economic Problems Facing the U.S.

    02/05/2016 1:01:34 PM PST · by HarleyLady27 · 11 replies
    Economy In Crisis ^ | Nov. 12, 2015 | Thomas Heffner
    The United States is facing economic disaster on a scale few nations have ever experienced. Most people are unaware of the easily observable signs of this crisis, where it came from and how to stop it. While we persist in our superpower mentality, we have quietly become a second-class country in many respects.
  • $100 Trillion Up in Smoke

    02/07/2016 7:52:26 AM PST · by Lorianne · 22 replies
    Mauldin Economics ^ | 06 February 2016 | John Mauldin
    If energy powers the world, then whoever owns that energy must have power over the world. That’s certainly been the case for the last century or two. Ownership of our primary energy source, crude oil, is what made billionaires of John D. Rockefeller, H.L. Hunt, and assorted Middle Eastern kings, emirs, and sheikhs. Oil in the ground is wealth only on paper – you may own that oil, but it earns you nothing until you recover and sell it. Yet paper wealth is still wealth. It goes on your balance sheet as an asset that you can sell. You can...
  • Debt, defaults, and devaluations: why this market crash is like nothing we've seen before

    02/06/2016 6:42:17 AM PST · by SkyPilot · 61 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 6 Feb 16 | Mehreen Khan,
    A pernicious cycle of collapsing commodities, corporate defaults, and currency wars loom over the global economy. Can anything stop it from unravelling? A global recession is on the way. This truism of economics holds at any point in which the world is not in the grips of a contraction. The real question is always when and how deep the upcoming downturn will be. "The crash will come, but it would be nice if it came two years from now", Thomas Thygesen, head of economics at SEB told over 200 commodity investors and analysts in London last month. His audience was...
  • U.S. bank stocks and bonds clobbered by recession worry

    02/09/2016 4:31:58 AM PST · by EBH · 17 replies
    Yahoo Finance ^ | 2/9/2016 | Caroline Valetkevitch and Will Caiger-Smith
    NEW YORK (Reuters/IFR) - U.S. bank stocks and bonds took a pounding on Monday as recession fears compounded concern about their exposure to the energy sector and expectations that global interest rates are unlikely to rise quickly.... Meanwhile, bonds issued by U.S. banks extended their decline, with the yield premium demanded by investors to hold these securities, rather than safer U.S. Treasury debt, climbing to the highest in three-and-a-half years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fixed Income Index data. "Investors' attitudes seem to be worsening relative to the likelihood of a global recession. I think that's what financials...
  • Dwindling Jobs... And Attacking the Producers

    02/07/2016 8:54:16 PM PST · by jfd1776 · 8 replies
    Illinois Review ^ | February 6, 2016 A.D. | John F. Di Leo
    How would you react to the following news stories? Former Shoppers Fined $5,000 for No Longer Frequenting Nearby Mall Residents of Anytown, USA were surprised to receive invoices in the mail from their local county government Friday. The county identified people who used to shop in the local mall but, due to reports of muggings, rapes, and vehicle theft at the mall, switched to shopping at other, safer malls, or just doing it online. The thousand dollar a year fine was based on the estimated amount of revenue the mall says it lost due to their departure. Professional economists, when...
  • Portfolio Moves As U.S. Recession Signals Intensify

    02/06/2016 6:13:48 AM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 18 replies
    Signs of recession are intensifying. The global economy is near or in recession, and we’re seeing that pressure begin to appear here in the U.S. It’s important to be on “recession watch” because the stock market suffers significant declines during recessions. However, you can position your portfolio to mitigate downside risk when recession signals are flashing. A few of quick facts: 1.Recessions tend to occur one to two times each decade. 2.The last U.S. recession was in 2008, seven years ago. 3.Economies naturally cycle between growth and recession. 4.The stock market declines more than 40 percent on average during recessions....
  • U.S. Economy Ran Out Of Gas In Q4; Will Consumers Spend In 2016?

    02/01/2016 5:17:25 AM PST · by expat_panama · 30 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | 1/29/2016 | CIARAN MCEVOY
    Economic growth decelerated sharply in the second half of 2015 due to the usual suspects: global headwinds, destockpiling and a slumping energy sector. Gross domestic product expanded at a glacial 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from gains of 2% in Q3 and 3.9% in Q2, the Commerce Department said Friday. But a recession is highly unlikely, according to most economists, saying consumers will keep the economy plodding along at the so-so pace the country has seen since the Great Recession ended in 2009. Despite some big swings over the past several quarter, GDP grew 2.4% for all...
  • PETER SCHIFF: We're Going To Have An Economic Collapse And Negative Rates Before The Election

    01/29/2016 12:01:58 PM PST · by blam · 83 replies
    BI ^ | 1-29-2016 | Bob Bryan
    Bob BryanJanuary 29, 2016 Based on today's GDP release, it appears that the US economy is slowing but not near any sort of massive collapse. Peter Schiff begs to differ. The CEO and chief global strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, and noted perma-bear, said that serious economic destruction is just a few months away. "I think the Fed is going to have negative interest rates before the election because we're going to be in a serious recession," Schiff told Business Insider on Friday. In fact, Schiff said that we may already be in recession and this one is going to...
  • Corporate Bonds Pass An Ominous Milestone (Recession likely)

    01/28/2016 7:47:24 PM PST · by GilGil · 4 replies
    Felder Report ^ | 1/28/2016 | Jesse Felder
    The spread between the yield on corporate bonds and that on treasuries passed the 2% mark yesterday for the first time in over three years yesterday. In the chart above I’ve annotated with red vertical lines the prior two occasions when spreads widened to this degree for the first time in at least two years. Notice that each of the two prior occurrences led to painful bear markets and recessions. Now this indicator alone isn’t sufficient evidence that another painful bear market and concomitant recession are on their way. However, when you pair it with the all the other data...
  • Outlook 2016: Why economists are starting to use the ‘R’ word again

    01/28/2016 4:43:53 AM PST · by expat_panama · 30 replies
    Financial Post ^ | January 25, 2016 | John Shmuel
    Big stock market declines are often lead indicators for recession, and global markets are heading into their last week of trading for the month with the risk of seeing one of their biggest ever January declines.Despite a big bounce in markets Friday, which saw the S&P 500 rise two per cent, fear is in the air. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said in an update Friday that they now see a 20 per cent chance that the U.S. economy will slip into a recession this year, up from the 15 per cent chance they predicted in December.The rising chance...
  • Recession Indicators Flashing Red

    01/24/2016 1:37:44 PM PST · by EBH · 29 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | 1/24/2016 | Josh Zumbrun
    successfully navigated, global growth could be derailed." Of the warning signs, the decline in U.S. industrial production has one of the best track records. The output from mines, factories and utilities has always begun to decline before recession strikes. "Manufacturing tends to lead the economic cycle and it tends to be an indicator of the swings," said Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Standard Chartered. "Manufacturing is struggling." A strong U.S. dollar and weak economies internationally are taking a toll. But unlike past declines in industrial production, today's decline has been driven primarily by the collapse in the oil industry. The...
  • 'Worse than 2007': Top banker warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies

    01/20/2016 11:44:23 AM PST · by Roman_War_Criminal · 27 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 1/20/2016 | David Scutt
    The world's financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, according to a leading global banker. William White, chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, suggests the stresses in the financial system are "worse than it was in 2007." Speaking with the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard before the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, White warned that macroeconomic ammunition to fight further economic downturns was essentially "all used up."
  • A key US economic indicator is on an ugly streak that has never occurred outside a recession

    01/19/2016 1:44:56 PM PST · by Nachum · 26 replies
    Yahoo ^ | 1/19/16 | Bob Bryan
    There has been increasing focus on the US economy's probability of heading into a recession. According to John Hussman of Hussman Funds, it's not just probable; it's nearly guaranteed. "Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a US recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood, awaiting confirmation that typically only emerges after a recession is actually in progress," Hussman said in a post Monday. His key piece of evidence stems from Friday's US report on industrial production. The data...
  • The recession of 2016 Central bank bungles, oil price fluctuations and overregulation...

    01/19/2016 4:46:52 AM PST · by expat_panama · 12 replies
    The Washington Times ^ | January 18, 2016 | Richard W. Rahn
    There will be a recession in the United States and much of the rest of the world in 2016. After reading the above sentence, you should be thinking, what possibly could the writer know that the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration do not know given all their resources and all of their professional economic forecasters? If one looks at the forecast record of the IMF and the Fed over the past several decades, one will not find any case in which a year of positive growth was followed by a year of contraction in which...
  • New Fed Figures Show Manufacturing Nearing a Recession and Automotive in One

    01/16/2016 12:53:20 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 1 replies
    Equities ^ | January 18, 2016 | Alan Tonelson
    Despite recent gloomy private sector and regional Fed surveys, the Federal Reserve's new December industrial production figures revealed that real manufacturing output dropped a bare 0.05 percent on month, and revisions barely worsened the picture. Yet the weak year-end number left such output down on net for five months - one short of a technical recession. And the automotive sector, which has led industry's post-Great Recession comeback, sank into technical recession. Full-year 2015 manufacturing after-inflation growth of 0.74 percent was the lowest such figure since the last recession began, and less than 20 percent as strong as 2014's 4.16 percent...
  • CSX: Railroads Face Recession-Like Pressures (rail volumes at Recession levels)

    01/13/2016 3:22:14 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 43 replies
    CSX Corp. executives said on Wednesday that current pressures on rail cargo volumes are at levels not seen outside a recession. “You have multiple aspects working against you: the low [natural] gas prices, the low commodity prices, the strength of the dollar,” Chief Executive Michael Ward said during an earnings call with analysts. “Except for markets like automotive and housing related, you’re seeing pressure on most of the markets.”