Free Republic 1st Quarter Fundraising Target: $88,000 Receipts & Pledges to-date: $83,903
95%  
Woo hoo!! And now less than $4.1k to go!! Let's git 'er done!! Thank you all very much!!

Keyword: recession

Brevity: Headers | « Text »
  • An economic riddle: Where are all the construction workers?

    02/28/2015 10:57:18 AM PST · by posterchild · 48 replies
    finance.yahoo.com ^ | Feb 27, 2015 | Michael Santoli
    The housing bust and Great Recession might have scared a generation of would-be construction workers away from the building trades. That’s the strong suggestion of some new research by the Federal Reserve, which explored why shortages of construction workers are emerging even as large numbers of people who seem good candidates for that type of work remain under-employed. A working paper by Fed economist Andrew Paciorek notes that construction employment growth has badly lagged the recovery in the labor market as a whole.
  • Another Recession is on the way

    02/28/2015 9:43:53 AM PST · by Kaslin · 21 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 28, 2015 | Mike Shedlock
    In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened. 50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00% Investigating the Record By the way, the ECRI was late in calling the recession of 2007. They still deny it. And questions regarding the 2001 recession and ECRI have still not been answered. I have talked about all of this...
  • Greenspan: Effective demand as weak as during Depression

    02/26/2015 5:41:52 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 25 replies
    The fact that the market is anticipating that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, yet the yields on the 10- and 30-year Treasurys are falling is an indication of how weak the overall global economy is, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Thursday. In fact, effective demand is extraordinarily weak, he said. "The way I measure it, it's probably tantamount to what we saw in the later stages of the Great Depression," Greenspan said in an interview with "Closing Bell." That said, he acknowledged "it's not anywhere near what the problems were back then but we haven't...
  • Federal Reserve Insider Alan Greenspan Warns:There Will Be a “Significant Market EventSomething Big

    With the Federal Reserve printing trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep the economic system afloat, many investors and financial pundits have surmised that the fundamental economic problems facing the United States during the crash of 2008 have been resolved. Stocks are, after all, at historic highs. But the insiders know different. And if there’s any single person out there who understands U.S. monetary policy and its long-term effects on domestic and global affairs it’s former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. As the head of the world’s most powerful central bank for nearly two decades he’s privy to the insider...
  • Jeb Bush cannot escape his brother's undeniably disastrous presidency

    02/17/2015 4:08:57 AM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 27 replies
    The Week ^ | February 17, 2015 | Ryu Spaeth
    Earlier this year, Mitt Romney had a Galadriel moment. He appeared to be briefly seized by a vision of himself as an all-powerful, world-striding President Romney, before turning away from temptation and settling for the plain old Mitt Romney he has always been. It was political theater at its most bizarre, a flack-driven frenzy that doubled as a flashback to the self-delusion that blinded the Romney 2012 campaign in its final days. With Romney now out of the way, Jeb Bush has consolidated the support of the GOP's moneyed class with surprising alacrity. As Politico noted last week, the contest...
  • Japan's Recession Is Over

    02/15/2015 4:22:40 PM PST · by blam · 13 replies
    BI ^ | 2-15-2015 | Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters
    Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters Februry 15, 2015 TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy rebounded from recession to grow an annualized 2.2 percent in the final quarter of last year, giving a much-needed boost to premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to shake off decades of stagnation even as the global outlook deteriorates. But the expansion was smaller than a 3.7 percent increase forecast in a Reuters poll, suggesting a fragile recovery for the world's third-largest economy as consumer mood remained soft and uneven global growth weighed on exports. Still, the return to growth will allow the Bank of Japan to hold...
  • The Latest Merger... and the Big Lie of the Obama Recovery

    02/13/2015 10:57:33 AM PST · by jfd1776 · 9 replies
    Illinois Review ^ | February 13, 2015 A.D. | John F. Di Leo
    This week’s business news concerns yet another high profile corporate merger. Less than two years after office supply and computer retailers Office Depot and Office Max were forced into a merger, it now looks like Staples will be acquiring them. Where once there were three retailers, soon (or eventually, since such consolidations do take time), there will be only one. The Resident of the White House, no doubt remembering that the success of Staples was an early credit to his rival Mitt Romney’s storied career as an investment wizard, lost no time in taking pot-shots against Staples for its employee...
  • Net U.S. Job Gains Since The Recession Have Gone To Foreign-Born Workers

    02/06/2015 3:08:39 PM PST · by Nachum · 11 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 2/6/15 | Caroline May
    In the months and years since the recession began in December 2007, foreign-born workers have experienced a net increase in employment, while native-born Americans have experienced a net loss. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated employment data Friday. The new BLS figures reveal that since the start of the recession in 2007 — which is said to have ended in June 2009 — the number of foreign workers employed in the United States rose by 1.7 million. In December 2007 the number of foreign-born workers was 22,810,000 by January 2009 the number has increased to 24,553,000. Meanwhile the number...
  • Oil tumbles; U.S. crude prices near six-year low on record stockpiles

    01/28/2015 5:10:53 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 31 replies
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil slumped on Wednesday, with U.S. crude prices at near six-year lows, after the government reported record-high inventories in the United States that raised anxieties about the global oil glut that had pressured the market since last summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude oil stocks rose by almost 9 million barrels last week to reach nearly 407 million, their highest since the government began keeping records in 1982.
  • "Equities Will Be Devastated" Odey Warns, Looming Recession Will Be "Remembered For 100 Years"

    01/28/2015 6:14:36 AM PST · by blam · 24 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | Crispin Odey - Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden - Crispin Odey January 28, 2015 "I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009. Odey Asset...
  • EBay CFO: It will get worse before it gets better (laying off 2,400)

    01/21/2015 5:45:00 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 53 replies
    During the company's earnings call, eBay Chief Financial Officer Bob Swan said 2015 would present "real challenges" and forecast that "it will get worse before it gets better." Separately, the company said it entered into an agreement with billionaire activist Carl Icahn, the company's largest active shareholder, and will appoint Jonathan Christodoro, Icahn's pick, to its board.
  • One Of The Best Predictors Of Recessions Is Rapidly Approaching The Here-Comes-A-Recession Level

    01/15/2015 9:16:59 AM PST · by blam · 45 replies
    BI ^ | 1-15-2015 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland January 15, 2015 Here's a word no one wants to hear: "recession." Headline payroll gains were strong in 2014 and GDP growth has been above 3% in four of the last five quarters. So everything is good, right? Well, one indicator that has a perfect record of predicting recessions is creeping towards some uncomfortable levels: the yield curve. The yield curve, or the interest rate paid on the range of US Treasury bonds, typically ranges from low to high: the shortest duration bills are paid the least interest, with investors earning additional yield for lending the government for...
  • Venezuela confirms recession, highest inflation in Americas

    12/31/2014 4:16:20 AM PST · by C19fan · 7 replies
    Reuters ^ | December 30, 2014 | Staff
    Venezuela confirmed on Tuesday it had entered a recession while inflation remained the highest in the Americas, and President Nicolas Maduro's socialist government blamed political foes for the dismal data. The Central Bank said gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in each of the first three quarters: 4.8 percent, 4.9 percent and 2.3 percent. Twelve-month inflation reached 63.6 percent in November.
  • An Economic Indicator That Predicted The Last 7 Recessions Predicts No Recession Any Time Soon

    12/18/2014 8:03:43 PM PST · by blam · 23 replies
    BI - Guggenheim Partners ^ | 12-18-2014 | Scott Minerd
    Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners December 18, 2014 Plunging oil markets and faltering growth expectations around the world have raised fears about the sustainability of the current U.S. economic expansion. The economic data, though, suggest that these fears are largely unfounded. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which is made up of 10 forward-looking economic and financial indicators, has not fallen since January and has been gaining momentum throughout the year. (snip)
  • The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind

    12/11/2014 3:45:29 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 57 replies
    The New York Times ^ | December 11, 2014 | Binyamin Appelbaum
    ANNAPOLIS, Md. — Frank Walsh still pays dues to the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, but more than four years have passed since his name was called at the union hall where the few available jobs are distributed. Mr. Walsh, his wife and two children live on her part-time income and a small inheritance from his mother, which is running out. Sitting in the food court at a mall near his Maryland home, he sees some of the restaurants are hiring. He says he can’t wait much longer to find a job. But he’s not ready yet. “I’d work for...
  • Japan's third-quarter economic contraction bigger than expected

    12/07/2014 5:33:32 PM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 14 replies
    TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economic contraction in July-September was deeper than initially expected on declines in capital expenditure, according to revised data on Monday that backs Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's recent decision to delay a second sales tax hike. The data indicated that the hit from April's sales tax hike turned out to be bigger than expected. Abe, who has called a snap poll for Sunday, hopes voters will agree that his stimulus policies and a decision to delay a second sales tax hike next year will revive a sputtering economy.
  • Russia Is Falling Into A Recession (Oil Price Crash)

    12/02/2014 6:21:33 AM PST · by blam · 14 replies
    BI ^ | 12-2-2014 | Tomas Hirst
    Tomas Hirst December 2, 2014Russia's Economy Ministry has downgraded its GDP forecast for the country in 2015 from 1.2% growth to a 0.8% contraction. In other words, the country is falling into a recession. The net amount of foreign capital expected to flow out of the country in 2014 has been revised sharply upward to $125 billion (up from $100 billion), while the projection of net outflows for next year has also been increased, to $90 billion from $50 billion. The independent Russian news agency Interfax reports Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev as saying that the downgrade reflects the...
  • Japan's slip into surprise recession paves way for tax delay, snap poll

    11/17/2014 1:28:46 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    Reuters ^ | 11/17/2014 | LEIKA KIHARA AND LINDA SIEG
    Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in the third quarter, setting the stage for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike and call a snap election two years before he has to go to the polls. The recession comes nearly two years after Abe returned to power promising to revive the economy with his "Abenomics" mix of massive monetary stimulus, spending and reforms, and is unwelcome news for an already shaky global economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by an annualised 1.6 percent in July-September, after plunging 7.3 percent in the second quarter following a rise...
  • Japan in recession as economy contracts 1.6 pct

    11/16/2014 5:38:02 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 4 replies
    Associated Press ^ | Nov 16, 2014 8:30 PM EST | Elaine Kurtenbach
    Japan reported Monday that its economy contracted at a real annual rate of 1.6 percent in July-September, in a second straight quarterly decline that returned the country to recession. A 24.1 percent plunge in private residential investment from a year earlier failed to offset a modest recovery in exports and a 1.5 percent increase in household spending. Most economists had forecast that the world’s third-biggest economy would expand at about a 2 percent pace. The negative growth figure was much lower than expected and makes it very likely Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will delay implementation of a sales tax hike...
  • Wal-Mart 'urgent' memo urges improvement at U.S. stores: NYT

    11/12/2014 5:36:14 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 152 replies
    Reuters ^ | 12 Nov 14 | Reuters staff
    Wal-Mart stores Inc issued an "urgent agenda" memo to its store managers across the United States last month, laying out guidelines to boost sales of "chilled and fresh" food, the New York Times reported. The memo, marked "highly sensitive", asks Wal-Mart marketing managers to make sure they discount aging meat and baked goods to maximize chances of selling them before their expiration dates, according to the report. Wal-Mart, which has posted six straight quarters of flat or declining same-store sales growth, has been battling a stronger dollar and a reduction in U.S. food stamp benefits, which has eaten into...
  • A Tiny Firm That Saw The 1929 Crash Coming Sees Trouble For 2015

    11/10/2014 6:31:14 AM PST · by blam · 31 replies
    BI ^ | 11-10-2014 | Elena Holodny
    Elena Holodny November 10, 2014A small firm that predicted the market crash back in 1929 is back with an ominous message. According to Bloomberg, the Jerome Levy Forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015. "Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn," said David Levy, the chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. Levy's forecasts contrasts with the Wall Street consensus, which is confident growth will continue for years. Back in 1929, Jerome Levy — grandfather of now chairman David Levy — "didn't like what he saw...
  • Inflation: Not Entirely Tame (Captain Obvious Alert!)

    10/25/2014 2:54:44 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 9 replies
    The graph above shows that after years of holding back inflation rates, the rate of housing inflation is boosting the rate of inflation. Month-to-month housing inflation was up 0.3% compared with the overall inflation rate of 0.1%. It's not just a one-month phenomenon, either, as year-over-year shelter price increases were up 3.0% versus 1.7% for the overall rate of inflation. Unfortunately, shelter is the single biggest component of the CPI calculation, so big moves here are magnified. For some perspective, gasoline is 5% and food is 14% of the CPI calculation. The good news is that consumers, with locked-in mortgages,...
  • Europe must drop the euro, Germany abandon mercantilism

    10/20/2014 2:25:51 PM PDT · by EBH · 5 replies
    UPI ^ | 10/20/2014 | Peter Moricici
    Europe faces yet another recession, and the prospect is shaking global financial markets. To eliminate the persistent threat of collapse, Europe must drop the euro, and Germany must abandon mercantilism. When the euro was adopted in 1999, domestic prices -- the face values for bonds and loans -- and bank accounts were translated into euros according to prevailing exchange rates for national currencies at the time. Initially, the single currency posed few significant problems. Over time, however, differences in labor market policies and geographic conditions that are difficult for governments to alter caused productivity to grow more rapidly in Germany...
  • EU's triple whammy: Recession, deflation, and debt

    10/16/2014 7:34:02 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/16/2014 | Rick Moran
    Here we go again. Another sovereign debt crisis on the periphery of the EU is underway and many of the same factors that led to previous debt meltdowns are present. Germany is headed for a triple dip recession. Continent-wide deflation is nearly a reality. And many EU nations are smashing the debt limits demanded by treaty, thus threatening the Euro itself. All of this is impacting the percentage of debt in relation to GDP in several countries, making government bonds more expensive and debt servicing a nightmare. The Hill: Among Europe's most recent economic tremors has been the growing evidence...
  • Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble

    10/10/2014 8:20:18 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 4 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 10/10/2014 | By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Germany’s exports are falling at the fastest rate since the global crisis in 2009, raising fears of a triple-dip recession and a disastrous relapse for the rest of the eurozone. The country’s five economic institutes - or "Wise Men" - slashed their growth forecast for Germany from 2pc to 1.2pc next year, warning that the latest measures unveiled by the European Central Bank will add “hardly any” extra stimulus to the real economy and may be unworkable. Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the eurozone is at “serious risk” of falling back into recession if...
  • Eurozone in danger of repeating Japanese stagnation, IMF chief warns

    10/10/2014 6:07:07 AM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 10 replies
    euobserver ^ | 2014/10/10 | Benjamin Fox
    Eurozone in danger of repeating Japanese stagnation, IMF chief warns By Benjamin Fox BRUSSELS - International Monetary Fund boss Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone risks following Japan and falling into a prolonged cycle of recession and stagnation. Speaking on Thursday (9 October) ahead of the IMF's annual meeting in Washington DC, Lagarde said: “We have also alerted to the risk of recession in the eurozone", putting the likelihood of a drop in output at "between 35-40%, which is not insignificant". “We are not saying that the eurozone is heading towards recession, but we are saying that there is...
  • Europe's Triple-Dip Recession Arrives: German Industrial Production Crashes Most Since February 2009

    10/07/2014 7:19:41 AM PDT · by blam · 4 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 10-6-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden 10/07/2014Yesterday it was German manufacturing orders which cratered 5.7% in August following a freak, 4.9% rebound in July, prompting Goldman to warn that "the underlying dynamic has weakened further at the end of Q3" ... ... And then a few hours ago we finally got undeniable confirmation that Europe is once again in recession, its third since Lehman, only this one is worse: it is led by the "core" countries, with Germany in the forefront, a Germany which just reported industrial output which suffered its biggest monthly decline in more than five years in August. Specifically, German IP...
  • The Great Recession: The financial crisis that keeps on giving

    09/29/2014 2:01:22 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    Los Angeles Times ^ | 09/29/2014 | SCOTT MARTELLE
    The Great Recession has lasted a lot longer for some than for others. A new survey from Rutgers University’s John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development found that “one in five workers - or nearly 30 million people - say they were laid off from a job in the past five years," dating back to the end of the recession in June 2009. "Nearly 4 in 10 of these laid-off workers say they searched for a job for more than seven months before finding another one; one in five workers laid off during the past five years never found another...
  • Tom Friedman says Reagan had it easy compared to Obama

    09/28/2014 11:53:42 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 60 replies
    American Thinker ^ | September 28, 2014 | Thomas Lifson
    The rationalizations for Obama’s failures are already beginning, and Tom Friedman employs the laziest of all strategies, tearing down a great man to make a small man look bigger. In his Sunday column in the New York Times, Friedman makes a number of highly dubious points. These days there is a lot of “if-only-Obama-could-lead-like-Reagan” talk by conservatives. I’ll leave it to historians to figure out years from now who was the better president. On the question of the domestic economy, there can be little doubt. Reagan inherited far higher unemployment and high inflation, and within a year or so had...
  • For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

    09/11/2014 7:03:28 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 23 replies
    Street Talk Live ^ | 09/11/2014 | Lance Roberts
    Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes. The 2013 survey confirms statements I have made previously regarding the Fed's monetary interventions leaving the majority of Americans behind: "While the ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve have certainly boosted asset prices higher, the only real accomplishment has been a widening of the wealth gap between the top 10% of individuals that have dollars invested in the financial markets and everyone else. What monetary interventions have failed to accomplish is an increase in production...
  • Biden Says Hoarders Are Retarding Economy

    09/07/2014 9:43:29 AM PDT · by John Semmens · 46 replies
    Semi-News/Semi-Satire ^ | 5 Sep 2014 | John Semmens
    Citing a paper released this week by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Vice-President Joe Biden blamed American consumers for the sluggish economy. “The government is doing everything it can to try to stimulate the economy,” Biden contended. “The federal government is spending every dollar it can get its hands on. The Federal Reserve is manufacturing new dollars at an unprecedented pace. But consumers are just sitting on their cash.” “Hoarding cash makes no sense,” the Veep argued. “The dollar’s purchasing power is being diluted on a daily basis by government policies. Spending your dollars before they lose even more value...
  • Rosenberg: The Next Recession Could Be 4 Years Away

    08/27/2014 7:06:48 AM PDT · by blam · 11 replies
    Pragmatic Capitalism ^ | 8-27-2014 | Cullen Roche
    Cullen Roche Wednesday, August 27th, 2014 Talk about a flip in perspective. David Rosenberg, who had been bearish for years, has turned into one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street. The Gluskin Sheff analyst now says his recession forecasting model could be pointing to another four years of economic expansion (via a recent note of his): (snip)
  • “This Was the Moment...”...Really???

    08/22/2014 6:35:39 AM PDT · by NOBO2012 · 9 replies
    Michelle Obama's Mirror ^ | 8-22-2014 | MOTUS
    As it turns out, the media shark jumping thing may have started earlier than I originally thought. The Washington Post took a small leap earlier this year with their editorial: “President Obama’s foreign policy is based on fantasy.”And earlier this summer Charles Krauthammer criticized what he called Big Guy’s “John Lennon, bumper-sticker foreign policy — Imagine World Peace” ; saying it demonstrated “wish-as-policy fecklessness from our bystander president” Due to continuing ISIS, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Boka Haram, et al, barbarism, the illusion of peace is experiencing technical difficulties. Still, accusing el Presidente of living in fantasy land is going...
  • Fed Survey: 1/3 of Americans say they are worse off 5 years after recession

    08/08/2014 7:49:29 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 20 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 08/08/2014 | Rick Moran
    There's a lot of economic anxiety in America today, so it's no surprise that the Federal Reserve has discovered substantial pessimism about Americans' own personal financial situation. The Feds most recent survey shows that 1/3 of Americans believe themselves to be worse off 5 years after the recession ended.Wall Street Journal: More American households say they are worse off  rather than better five years after the recession, a new Federal Reserve survey found. The report, released for the first time on Thursday, found 34% of households said they were “somewhat worse” or “much worse” financially in 2013 compared to 2008....
  • Bye-bye American Pie! It’s been a Sweet Ride.

    08/07/2014 8:06:58 AM PDT · by NOBO2012 · 13 replies
    Michelle Obama's Mirror ^ | 8-7-2014 | MOTUS
    Perhaps this explains that “you’re dead to me” look in Big Guy’s eyes while toasting his guests at Tuesday’s State dinner: To the dictators! Long may we not “just be standing around.” Or if that’s not it, maybe it’s because of this: A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that despite the steady pace of hiring in recent months, 76% of adults lack confidence that their children's generation will have a better life than they do—an all-time high. Some 71% of adults think the country is on the wrong track, a leap of 8 points from a June survey,...
  • Odd Trends: More Americans Remain on Food Stamps, Post-Recession

    08/03/2014 7:00:11 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 31 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 3, 2014 | Kevin Glass
    The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, commonly referred to as food stamps) has seen a meteoric rise in enrollment in the last fifteen years, and especially in the wake of the 2008 recession. The spike in SNAP recipients post-2008 is to be expected - but the maintenance of those high enrollment numbers is an anomaly. American Enterprise Institute scholar Robert Doar testified before the House Committee on Agriculture recently to examine this exact question. Doar notes that changes in the SNAP program that took place during this time period may disincentivize work requirements - and keep SNAP participation among working-age...
  • Trendy Chipotle burritos show how pricing power belongs to the hip

    07/29/2014 6:28:27 AM PDT · by C19fan · 83 replies
    Reuters ^ | July 28, 2014 | Jeffrey Dastin
    Corporate America can learn a lot from a chicken burrito. As many companies struggle to boost prices without alienating consumers, they may want to study Mexican-food chain Chipotle, which has managed to do both. Companies including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N), Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and PepsiCo (PEP.N) have shown they're able to take advantage of quality, trendiness, and, in the case of Pepsi's snack foods, market dominance, to maintain high prices or even raise them faster than the inflation rate, now at about 2.1 percent in the U.S. Chipotle raised chicken-dish prices by 5 percent this year after leaving them...
  • Based on the Non-Massaged Data, the US is Back in Recession

    07/26/2014 11:02:40 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 12 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 07/25/2014 | Phoenix Capital Research o
    Beneath all of the bogus economic data, the US economy is tanking again. One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation. Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO. However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically. So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP...
  • "Seasonal Adjustment" Swings Initial Jobless Claims From 6-Month Highs To Cycle Lows

    07/17/2014 3:15:10 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 3 replies
    Once again we were spot on. Because as the DOL just reported, yet again the fate of the US economy is left to seasonal adjustments. Non-seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims surged over 47,000 this week to its worst in 6-months. But by the magic of PhD adjustment, this translated into 3,000 seasonally-adjusted drop from last week, beating expectations and printing near 'recovery' cycle lows. We can only imagine the adjustments needed to cope with Microsoft's layoffs. 2014 has seen the smallest percentage drop in initial claims since the crisis began.
  • U.S. Economy-Plunge, Stagnation & Turning Down Anew-John Williams

    07/14/2014 10:21:03 AM PDT · by GilGil · 19 replies
    USAWatchdog.com ^ | 7/1/2014 | John Williams
    Back in 2013, Williams predicted that it would be “game over” in 2014. What are the statistics showing him now? Williams says, “They are showing the economy continues to weaken, and it never recovered. A second quarter contraction here would most assuredly be recognized as a new recession, and I contend we never got out of the old recession. We had plunge, stagnation and, now, we are turning down anew.”
  • This One Market Measure Has A Perfect Track Record For Predicting US Recessions

    07/08/2014 6:11:42 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/08/2014 | Sam Ro
    There are very few market indicators that can predict recessions without sending out false positives. The yield curve is one of them. At a breakfast earlier today, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Kleintop noted that the yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years. "That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record," he reiterated. The yield curve is inverted when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are higher than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield). "The yield curve inversion usually takes place about 12 months before the start...
  • How Recession-Proof Is Your Job Sector?

    07/08/2014 12:46:53 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 15 replies
    Of Two Minds ^ | 07/08/2014 | Charles Hugh-Smith
    History suggests that previously sound assumptions about financial security and recession-proof sectors may not apply in the next recession. Nobody wants to lose their job in a recession, but that's what happens when credit tightens, profits fall and tax revenues decline. Every enterprise that can't borrow unlimited sums of money at near-zero interest rates has to cut costs, and since labor and labor overhead (pension contributions, healthcare insurance, etc.) are the biggest expense for the vast majority of enterprises (including government agencies), payroll must be trimmed one way or another: either by lay-offs or by attrition, i.e. not hiring replacements for...
  • The Deteriorating Economic Outlook

    07/08/2014 11:56:14 AM PDT · by GilGil · 20 replies
    Paulcraigroberts.com ^ | 7/8/2014 | Craig Roberts
    The first quarter contraction, especially our corrected number, implies a second quarter negative real GDP. In other words, the years of Quantitative Easing (money printing) by the Federal Reserve has not resulted in economic recovery from the 2008 downturn and has not prevented further contraction.
  • Is the Economy Already in Another Recession? A net first-half contraction seems all but certain.

    07/03/2014 7:46:04 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 16 replies
    Pajamas Media ^ | 07/03/2014 | Tom Blumer
    Why do bad things always happen to him? Last week, the establishment press largely shrugged off the awful and ominous news that the economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.9 percent [1] during this year’s first quarter. When they deigned to notice it, they usually told their readers, listeners and viewers that happy days have now returned.Unfortunately, the reported contraction is historically foreboding: The 5.5-point downward swing from the fourth quarter’s 2.6 percent annualized growth to the first quarter’s 2.9 percent contraction was the largest such move from expansion to decline since the fourth quarter of 1981 [2].Since...
  • Spain Celebrates The "End Of The Recession" With 54% Youth Unemployment, Highest Since January

    07/01/2014 10:17:49 AM PDT · by Enlightened1 · 8 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 07/01/14 | Tyler Durden
    According to the just released European employment data for May, total Spain unemployment remained unchanged in May at 25.1%, while youth unemployment has actually risen to 54.0% - the highest since January! That's ok though: aside from the facts, onc is welcome to "believe" whatever headlines one wants to believe. And speaking of "recovery", here is what unemployment across Europe looked like as of May.
  • For most families, wealth has vanished

    06/30/2014 2:57:47 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 32 replies
    If you’re a typical family, you’re considerably poorer than you used to be. No wonder the “recovery” feels like a recession. A new study published by the Russell Sage foundation helps explain why many families feel like they’re falling behind: They actually are. The study, which measures the average wealth of U.S. households by income level, reveals a startling decline in wealth nationwide. The median household in 2013 had a net worth of just $56,335 -- 43% lower than the median wealth level right before the recession began in 2007, and 36% lower than a decade ago. “There are very...
  • How Obamacare Helped Crash the Economy

    06/25/2014 7:10:00 PM PDT · by lbryce · 8 replies
    The Daily Beast ^ | June 25, 2014 | Daniel Gross
    In the first quarter of 2014, GDP shrunk 2.9 percent and most of the reason is because health-care spending declined. That doesn’t mean we’re in for a recession though. Obamacare did help crash the economy. Only not in the way its critics thought it would. The Commerce Department on Wednesday revised the growth figures for the first quarter of 2014, and concluded that the economy shrunk at a 2.9 percent annual rate. This comes a month after the government slashed its initial estimate from an annual growth rate of .1 percent to a decline of 1.0 percent. At the time,...
  • For most families, wealth has vanished

    06/26/2014 6:47:21 AM PDT · by george76 · 68 replies
    Daily Ticker ^ | June 24, 2014 | Rick Newman
    If you’re a typical family, you’re considerably poorer than you used to be. No wonder the “recovery” feels like a recession. ... The median household in 2013 had a net worth of just $56,335 -- 43% lower than the median wealth level right before the recession began in 2007, and 36% lower than a decade ago.
  • We are in Recession.

    06/26/2014 6:31:19 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 28 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 06/26/2014 | Joseph Gestetner
    The economy is in a recession in effect if one quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product/economic activity) wipes out the gains of the previous quarter. You do not need officially two consecutive quarters of a flat or minus GDP headline to be called a recession. Instead, as occurred in Q1 (first quarter of) 2008, one quarter GDP was so bad that it wiped out the weak gains of the previous quarter (Q4 2007). Result? The official start of the last recession was Q4 2007 despite the fact that only one quarter was in a minus. Well, Q1 of 2014 wiped out...
  • Obama Gets GDP Bassackward

    06/25/2014 6:14:31 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 15 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | June 25, 2014 | John Ransom
    This country is a bunch of lions led by donkeys, as the Germans said about the English Army in the first war. The latest Obama-related bray is the revised GDP numbers for the first quarter. Economists expected the economy to grow by 1.9% even after a discount for the cold weather. Instead the initial estimate saw a contraction of 1%. As we approached the revision to the initial estimate, we began hearing that perhaps things would be even worse in the next estimate. They were. The revision came in at a contraction of 2.9% for the first quarter. But...