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Israel and Turkey On the Brink (The once-friendly Turks may be preparing to start a war)
HUMAN EVENTS ^ | 09/14/2011 | John Hayward

Posted on 09/14/2011 6:58:26 AM PDT by markomalley

While Americans have focused their attention on a number of domestic issues, things have been going downhill fast between Turkey and Israel.  The “Arab Spring” looks to be followed by an Islamist winter, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan wants to be Old Man Winter.  The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has even gone so far as to warn Erdogan not to muscle in on their action.

It didn’t take long for Turkey to go bad after it was pulled from the fridge of secular rule, and left on the countertop of Erdogan’s Islamist party.  Erdogan views the recent United Nations report on Israel’s action against blockade runners as a pretext to begin a round of dangerous posturing that has brought Turkey dangerously close to the brink of war.

How close?  On his way to visit Cairo, where the Israeli embassy was violently attacked by a mob over the weekend, the Turkish Prime Minister said this:

Erdogan told Al-Jazeera television in a recent interview that the Israeli raid, which killed eight Turks and a Turkish American on board a Turkish ship trying to break Israel's naval blockade of Gaza, occurred in international waters and was "unlawful." His comments were carried by Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency late Sunday.

"It is a cause for war, but we decided to act in line with Turkey's grandeur and showed patience," Erdogan said.

Once he arrived in Cairo, he said this:

Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the deteriorating Israeli-Turkish ties in a speech to Arab foreign ministers in Cairo. He said Israel has isolated itself and must "pay the price."

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "The conditions we have set are still in effect and must be met in order for Turkish-Israeli relations to return to normal. So long as Israel does not apologize, so long as they do not pay reparations to the victims' families, so long as they do not lift their naval blockade of Gaza, Turkish-Israeli relations will not return to normal."

This isn’t just the belligerent white noise that normally fills the air of the Middle East.  Turkey has already suspended military ties with Israel, expelled her diplomats, and declared support for Palestinian statehood - which amounts to the forcible seizure of a big chunk of Israeli land, right in the middle of that tiny nation.  Now comes word that Turkish warships are preparing to escort the next flotilla of blockade runners to Gaza and “confront” the Israeli navy:

The Turkish Navy is planning to dispatch three frigates to the Eastern Mediterranean to ensure freedom of navigation and to confront Israeli warships if necessary, a Turkish news report said on Monday.

The Turkish frigates, to be dispatched by the Navy's Southern Sea Area Command, will provide protection to civilian ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza, blockaded by Israel since 2007, the Turkish daily Sabah reported. If the Turkish warships encounter an Israeli military ship outside Israel's 12-mile territorial waters, they will advance up to 100 meters close to the ship and disable its weapon system, in a confrontation that resembles dogfights in the Aegean Sea with Greek jet fighters, according to the report.

The report comes days after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that Turkish warships will escort civilian aid ships headed to Gaza to prevent a repetition of last year's Israeli raid on a Turkish-owned ship that killed eight Turks and a Turkish-American, setting the stage for a potential naval confrontation with its former ally. 

 

Erdogan is stubbornly insisting that the Israeli blockade of Gaza, intended to prevent weapons shipments from reaching Palestinian terrorists, is “illegal,” even though the U.N. report specifically stated otherwise.  “The barrier to peace in the region is the mentality of the Israeli government,” he said in Cairo.  “The people in Israel are under a blockade.”  He described the establishment of a Palestinian state as “not an option but an obligation.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to play it cool while Erdogan ratchets up the rhetoric.  “I recommend not getting lured into making all kinds of remarks,” Netanyahu said.  “I think that common sense and cool-headedness will prevail eventually, hopefully, on both sides."

However, after noticing how little the authorities in Cairo did to stop the assault on the Israeli embassy, Netanyahu described the incident as doing “severe damage to the fabric of peace.”  Just wait until a Turkish frigate fires on an Israeli naval vessel to protect the next terror flotilla.  That should do wonders for the fabric of peace.

Writing for CNN, Washington Institute Senior Fellow for Near East Policy Soner Cagaptay notes there are economic forces motivating Erdogan’s brinksmanship, as well as political and religious forces:

The specter of conflict also hangs over gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.  Turkey objects to Israel’s desire to drill in its exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea largely because it hopes to block the Greek Cypriots from having the precedent of an exclusive economic zone in which they could drill for gas to the detriment of the Turkish Cypriots.  The latest escalation between Turkey and Israel might just pour oil on the political flames of gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea.

Perhaps Ankara is only bluffing to bring Israel to its knees, and perhaps the Israelis would rather let Turkish navy-escorted flotillas sail to Gaza than risk regional war.  But one thing is clear: The Arab Spring and the Turkish-Israeli Winter are churning up the Mediterranean.

The title of Cagaptay’s essay is “Could Israel and Turkey Go To War?”  At this hour, the answer is: maybe.  Considering the history of warmer relations between the two nations, and the ominous pressures gathering against Israel from other quarters, that’s a lousy answer.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Israel
KEYWORDS: cyprus; greece; israel; israelturkeytension; methane; turkey
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To: markomalley

Wait, Turkey has a navy???

Aren’t they in NATO???

I’m pretty sure that means you outsource your defense, free of charge, to The United States.


21 posted on 09/14/2011 8:06:11 AM PDT by End Times Sentinel (In Memory of my dear Friend Henry Lee II)
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To: markomalley

Sounds like it is time to quietly remove the nukes stored in Turkey.


22 posted on 09/14/2011 8:10:55 AM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: cuban leaf
This current situation will NOT lead to Gog and Magog. There are several reasons, all based on the description in Eze. 38 of the conditions Israel will be living under, when Gog and Magog takes place.

Eze 38:11: You will say, ‘I will go up against a land of unwalled villages; I will go to a peaceful people, who dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates’

Anybody can tell that Israel does not live safely, without walls, bars or gates. This is why I think there's another war coming up, the one described in Psalm 83. When the IDF wins this war, Damascus will be destroyed, which will be the end of Hezbollah, and Israel will have annexed the West Bank, Gaza strip, Lebanon, Jordan,the Sinai, and parts of Syria and northern Saudi Arabia. That will be the end of the PA and Fatah. Then Israel will live in peace... just to have Gog and Magog fall on her!

23 posted on 09/14/2011 8:20:03 AM PDT by Former Fetus (Saved by grace through faith)
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To: cuban leaf
Just curious. Could Turkey be considered part of “Gog and Magog”?

Yes, Turkey is part of Magog.

24 posted on 09/14/2011 8:48:57 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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To: markomalley
I'm not sure that Turkey has the power projection capability to enter into a war with Israel. There is always the possibility of limited naval combat, air to air, a deep strike now and then, but full scale warfare? Doubtful.
25 posted on 09/14/2011 8:55:54 AM PDT by aegiscg47
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To: US Navy Vet

“The Turks had better remember two words befor they start some feces with ANYONE “Ottoman Empire”.”

Yea... gee... that only lasted 624 years.


26 posted on 09/14/2011 8:57:00 AM PDT by Mashood
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To: Mashood

And it died in less than 6.


27 posted on 09/14/2011 9:00:22 AM PDT by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: Former Fetus
This current situation will NOT lead to Gog and Magog.

This needs to be repeated.

The present situation is not leading, directly at least, to the Gog and Magog War, which is described in Ezekiel 38. It's leading to the Psalm 83 war, which results in the destruction of Damascus described in Isaiah 17. Read Isaiah 17 and Psalm 83 carefully, you'll notice that this will be a widespread war with massive casualties of both military personnel and civilians on both sides.

The Psalm 83 war will lead to Israel living in peace and security, which is what triggers the Gog and Magog War.

28 posted on 09/14/2011 9:08:34 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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To: Avalon Hussar

—Yes, Turkey is part of Magog.—

And now I noticed someone posted from the bible (I think it was Ezekiel 38) where Magog will be drug in with “hooks in it’s mouth”, or something to that effect.

I’m wondering if a huge popular muslim groundswell within Turkey could be those hooks.

This whole thing is me speculating out loud. I actually remmeber the likes of Hal Lindsey making big bucks talking about the end times and the middle east being all about oil. I don’t even remember islam really being on their radar. And then when people talk about the false religion of the end times it is always someones version of Christianity that they don’t like. Some say it is the eeeevil Catholics. I think SDA says it’s all other “christian” churches. But nobody ever mentioned Islam.

Yet now, it seems to be ALL about islam. Suddenly the oil thing is almost an irrelevance. And then there is the total economic social termoil going on in the whole world eerily similar to the late 1930s.

I’m adding up all the puzzle pieces, but only a very few “easy” parts of the puzzle are coming together for me so far. But I am getting a clearer and clearer view of the picture on the box the puzzle came in.

This is looking more and more like we are very, VERY close to “it”.


29 posted on 09/14/2011 9:11:05 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: markomalley
Just for the record, here's a map of the people involved in the Gog/Magog War.

From what I've understood, Magog covers portions of the far Northeastern corner of Turkey, with Meschech, Tubal and Togarmah covering the rest. It doesn't appear that way in the map due to the graphic limitations, but this is a good start.

30 posted on 09/14/2011 9:16:31 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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To: cuban leaf
One thing that you'll notice is that all of the nations involved in the Psalm 83 war are Arabic Muslim nations. Those involved in the Gog/Magog war described in Ezekiel 38 are non-Arab Muslim nations.

I cannot prove it beyond speculation, so bear that in mind, but my own hunch is that the hook in the mouth of Gog and Magog is a desire to sack Israel for what they did to the Arabs in the Psalm 83 war and how rich Israel will become because of it. Add the desire for revenge to the massive natural gas find that Israel is trying to develop, among other things, and you have a pretty serious hook.

31 posted on 09/14/2011 9:21:20 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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To: Avalon Hussar

All good points. Thanks for keeping me thinking on this!


32 posted on 09/14/2011 9:47:36 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Avalon Hussar

I just reread Psalm 83. Now it is even MORE interesting. It sounds like the arab world finally attacks israel. Israel wins, and for whatever reason (UN sanctions, spoil, whatever), Magog comes down to “rectify” the situation.

Is that your general drift?


33 posted on 09/14/2011 9:53:00 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: cuban leaf

My thought exactly...


34 posted on 09/14/2011 10:07:02 AM PDT by crazydad
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To: OB1kNOb

The way things are going could 2012 really be true. I mean the mayans? A time of transformation. Obama allows an Arab invasion of Isreal and the world blows up. Not literally but in a world war.. I don’t know but the bible, mayans,Nastrodamus? Every thing points to 2012..


35 posted on 09/14/2011 10:14:52 AM PDT by crazydad
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To: markomalley
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America

Israel performing an attack on Turkish land would trigger that section. Israel sinking a bunch of Turkish ships a few miles off its shore would not.

36 posted on 09/14/2011 10:43:07 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: markomalley
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America

Now that I think about it, an attack against Turkish land would not necessarily trigger that section either, since most of Turkey is in Asia.

37 posted on 09/14/2011 10:49:01 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: PapaBear3625
Israel performing an attack on Turkish land would trigger that section. Israel sinking a bunch of Turkish ships a few miles off its shore would not.

I agree.

But would France and Germany use it as a pretense?

And would Obama support them?

38 posted on 09/14/2011 10:52:16 AM PDT by markomalley (Nothing emboldens the wicked so greatly as the lack of courage on the part of the good-Pope Leo XIII)
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To: cuban leaf
I just reread Psalm 83. Now it is even MORE interesting. It sounds like the arab world finally attacks israel. Israel wins, and for whatever reason (UN sanctions, spoil, whatever), Magog comes down to “rectify” the situation. Is that your general drift?

Basically. What I expect to see happen is that the Psalm 83 war takes place and Damascus is destroyed in a nuclear exchange, along with much of the Israeli West Bank and areas around Tel Aviv, prompting Israel to move the capitol back to Jerusalem.

With a large portion of the Arab Muslim nations effectively neutered in the attack, I expect Turkey and Iran to take a central leadership position at the head of a reborn Caliphate that would include the remains of whatever Arab Muslim nations which did not participate in the Psalm 83 war as well as the non-Arab Muslim nations mentioned in Ezekiel 38. One thing to notice though, Egypt is NOT included in the Gog/Magog war. They aren't destroyed, because they're mentioned later as being allied with Israel after the Magog War, but they aren't active either. I'm not sure what this portends, other than perhaps the Egyptians finally realizes that messing with Israel is not a good way to stay on the right side of ground level.

I also do not expect the Gog/Magog war to kick off immediately after the Psalm 83 war. I'm not sure how long of a period of time is between the Psalm 83 war and the Magog War, but whatever happens in the aftermath of the Psalm 83 war, it will cause Israel to think that they're finally safe.

39 posted on 09/14/2011 11:18:18 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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To: markomalley
I agree. But would France and Germany use it as a pretense? And would Obama support them?

If France and Germany thought they could use the war as an excuse to somehow prop up the European economy, then they might get involved. I have no doubt in my mind though that Obama would jump at the chance to send American troops into Israel to topple the government. Can you imagine the uproar that would cause?

40 posted on 09/14/2011 11:22:31 AM PDT by Avalon Hussar
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