Posted on 11/03/2008 7:46:40 PM PST by savvyguy
British Journalist, Simon Jenkins, Sunday Times, wrote today, "Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell"
I will share several reasons/factors why McCain will likely win. I first wrote about 2 months ago ,”10 reasons why I believe McCain will win .” Then I lost faith, but regained it recently.
Dick Morris wrote that if Obama wasn’t getting 50% in the final polls, it could spell trouble, because the undecided will break heavily for McCain. Old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. They could break at rates as high as 4 to 1.
Every single state has more than 3% undecided, up to 9%. If Obama hasn’t convinced those voters by now, most will go with McCain. The Mason-Dixon in Virginia showed that 11% of whites are undecided , above average in last days.
My prediction is 281 electoral votes for McCain, 257 for Obama. Obama will lead in popular votes by around 2%. Forward this to or people, to encourage them to vote.
Even AP Warns that he Could Win Electoral College. In 2000, Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But Bush won 271 to 266.
My reasons I see hope:
1. Those stubborn conservatives who vowed they will NEVER vote for Mccain are coming home. First Dr. Dobson and Mike Savage, there will be more last minute.
2. There’s real fear out there for a Socialist State! People buying guns. Gun owners will lopsidedly vote McCain-Palin!
3. Christian block of voters has come home to McCain. Obama’s mission there has failed miserably! I was worried. The Catholic vote is strong this year & will tilt Ohio & battleground States.
(continue below)
5. Because of persistent rumor online, significant % of American who will not vote for a suspected Muslim. Continue here:
6. PUMAS & Hillary supporters- little sampled by polls. I think at least 15% will break for McCain, probably higher! They are still mad & many women kinda like Palin as VP
7. McCain has raised some $5 or more millions for TV ADs last week or so, huge boost! Running Rev. Wright's ad by a black GOP group, very effective in swing States. Will raise more doubts! Obama’s recent funds have dried up.
8. McCain & Palin message have been more passionate, confident! They are pounding daily.
9. War issue no longer that big issue these days. seldom hear casualties.
10. Stock market has stabilized
11. Joe the plummer factor, a God sent! Many small biz and blue collars are turned off by Obama’s remarks & treatment of him
12. Coal bankruptcy remarks discovered, another God send, will have a definite effect, in a tight race, could tilt it.
13. Palin factor- I think high % women at the end would love see a woman to become VP!
Many who desire change see it in her! Without Palin, McCain does not have a prayer.
As someonme else on FR pointed out , iIf the popular vote lead by Obama is less than 4%, Obama will likely lose the Electoral.
The recent restaurant’s poll (shows McCain ahead) & AOL straw poll (tho unscientific) showing 49- 49, validates race is definitely tightening!
I am a believer in momentum shift, it has shifted the last days in our favor! Fox exit polls shows it has closed up from 9 points behind to, 1 point behind, 48-47%, another good sign! If Obama can’t close above 50% , he is in some trouble! He won’t sleep well tonight! In the primaries, Obama was not a good closer with Hillary, might repeat.
13. God & prayer factor!
National Day of prayer yesterday! For the cocky Obama, “pride cometh before a fall.“ His grandma died, cutting his rallies short, his Nevada campaign chair die today.
We might have rain in Philadelphia, of all places, which will help McCain.
If indeed Obama loses, especially by narrow margin, expect troubles on the street, maybe looting in Urban cities like SF, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, NY city!
Obama will NOT concede! May take days before we know.
No far leftist have ever won White House, though they have repackaged him into a moderate.
I read, to my surprise, that ACORN end up registered more Republicans than Democrats. Also exit polls show the % of new voters, young voters who have voted early, is not really higher than the past.
How is possible Obama who has more baggage, more issues than John Kerry could win except more MSM help, much more cash!
On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, this was the electoral map at Electoral Vote. It predicted a Kerry win: 298-231. but Bush won by 286 - 251. The MSM were off by 102 Electoral Votes. That’s adding Texas, PA, Fl, CO., Missouri together!
Ignore that Gallup poll, which shows Obama ahead by over 10%! Crazy! I believe they intentionally release record no. of polls, using a new metoid, geared to discourage and demoralize McCain supporters!
Let’s see if we get confirming results from Redskin’s win tonight, currently leading 6-3.
I’d laugh my ass off if Mccain “Gores” Obama.
If the fraudulent votes can taken out as they should be, I think it’s more than possible McCain would win both popular and electoral.
I honestly think McCain will win the popular vote AND the ECV. With all the indicators against Obama, I don’t think there’s enough fraud to pull it off.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough!
I hope that the national guard units are suited up and ready for the inevitable riots in the “urban” areas of our nation when this happens.
That's me. But I am not coming home to McCain. He is just the lesser of two non-conservative evils. And I like Sarah Palin.
Yeah, Obama’s not a good closer. Which could explain Michelle’s bitter frustration.
I don’t know about your analysis, but even the staunch dem in my office believes sincerely that the polls are overstating Obama’s support and that the undecided voters are McCain voters afraid to admit it.
Yes that is right.. I see no reason why McCain would not win both.
Skins are down...but not out. Sound familiar?
Obama flipping McCain on Drudge may get a few ladies bridge clubs to turn.
Redskins are losing 16-6 Btw. But Green Bay beat Washington in 2004 and GW won, so no biggie.
Explain to me this:
*Palin gets the highest SNL ratings in a decade
*McCain gets the second highest SNL ratings in a decade.
*McCain gets Letterman his highest rating in 7 years.
*NYC Jewish ladies are buying “Palin wigs”
*Palin glasses are very popular.
*The Jewish Press has endorsed the winner in every election since 1988.
*Palin and McCain convention speech beat Obama’s.
I personally think it would be hilarious if it happened! Another lesson to the fools about how the EV works and another reason for them never to sleep peacefully again! Oh, and after the riots, when some of the bad actors have been killed, all the better!
The amount of democrats crossing over to vote for McCain this election will be the story of the election as I’ve been saying for months.
Obama will NOT come close in the popular vote, I haven’t been worried about an Obama presidency for ONE SECOND. It’s not in the cards, this is the Moonbat Candidate, the Moonbat Coalition is not enough to win.
Cripes. First, McCain has a 3% chance of winning at all. Now he has a 60% chance of winning in some bizarro freak fashion that’s only happened 3 times in 220 years.
If McCain wins via an “Electoral College Reversal”, the Liberals will have a psychotic episode. They will not care about the Constitution (not that they ever do) and will scream for the Liberal Messiah to declare himself to be the President; he might do it. Thing will be much easier if McCain-Palin win the PV & EV.
If you’re collecting factoids, don’t forget that the Sarah Palin Cabbage Patch Kid on eBay is currently selling for the most of any of the presidential CPK’s (more than 10 times as much as Biden).
The football game is a wash. Someone from the Steelers endorsed McCain today, so either way the game goes, it’s lucky for McCain.
I really hope you are right.
There’s not enough popcorn in the world if that happens.
??? How would the pollsters even know they were sampling PUMAs?
Ain't that the truth. McCain was inspired by God to pick Sarah.
I was laughing at #2 about gun sales.
I was in a gun store last week, and they were indeed doing a brisk business. Guns were flying off the shelf. Not just shotguns and home defense stuff, but AR-15s and SKS with military clips!
That experience was at least as good as taking a poll.
Considering that most Obama supporters have little, if any, concept on how the Electoral College works …riots in the streets will be their only response, if Obama losses.
Reading my mind.....
I’d be rioting myself against Obamarxist if it wasn’t for the whole work thing.
The fact that you live in NJ and can say that with such confidence is very heartening.
Read this for some moral support:
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/five-reasons-obama-lost-this-election/#more-7858
I’m about half way through it now and I’m already pumped.
To hell with the Redskins and to hell with Barack Hussein Obama. We’ve got an election to win. :)
Steelers 23 - 6.
Yes, you got a point! Hope so, Pray so
Wasn’t there looting when Gore lost narrowly? I recall
“the Liberals will have a psychotic episode”
You mean.....a psychotic reaction?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODR6rGcluRs
No secret, I am one of them. I am for Palin-McCain. LOL
I thought the Redskins lost in 2004! Good I can go back to rooting against them tonight! They are losing because Cowboys fans were rooting for the Redskins! Bad karma for the Redskins! :)
I heard a funny thing on the radio today. An Irish bookie is giving 20-1 odds that the election is non resolved.
Tell you the truth, as a New England suburbanite who hasn’t grown up with guns but respects responsible ownership, I have found myself in the last 2 days thinking for the first time in my life about getting a permit, some lessons, and a firearm. That’s a BIG, BIG switch for me. I know I’m not alone.
*The Jewish Press has endorsed the winner in every election since 1988.
Is that right? Didn’t know that!
Guys, help me FREEP this Digg, on new thread, to encourage the disheartened.
Check 2ndDivisionVet and his posts, you will find TONS of grass-roots democrats doing everything they can to defeat Obama.
If there was this kind of movement amongst Republicans you would never hear the end of it from the MSM.
My over/under for Obama’s percent of Dems is 80. Kerry got 89 and was a WAY less scarier candidate than Obama.
Palin makes inroads with the female vote and dems vote McCain in droves, end of story.
We will win. Check it out ...
0) NEW!!! “Coalgate” http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123235/posts
1) ACORN has been stuffing the Democratic registration lists for years now, especially this year. Pollsters use these stuffed registered-voter lists to poll real people, so if the lists read 60%D, 40%R, the pollster will poll 60 Ds for every 40 Rs. If every D were for Obama and every R were for McCain, Obama ought to be ahead by 20 points in the polls He’s not! Ergo, McCain is actually ahead and doesn’t know it!
2) The press (AP, MSNBC, NYT) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123219/posts
3) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
4) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
5) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
6) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY was Obama ever up 14 points! He won’t even break 49%.
7) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
8) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
9) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
10) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
11) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
12) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
13) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
14) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
15) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
16) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
17) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
18) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
19) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html Long time Democrat votesrs are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
20) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
21) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
22) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
23) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
24) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
25) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
26) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
27) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
28) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
29) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
30) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
31) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
32) Obama will get 1% less Evangelical votes than Kerry did. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2123218/posts
33) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
Dugg!
Reading page A12 of Canada's National Post, titled "Americans cannot vote for President" (Contributor Jo Biddle). quoting one Chris Dreibelbis of the Reform Institue. It does not make clear this is his statement.
"The electoral college was established by the founding fathers and has been around in some form since the early 1800's when vast distances and lack of communications meant organizing and counting a national popular vote posed immense hurdles.
"Mr Dreibelbis then says that "it would simplify the process and ensure there would be a clear winner". I am glad that there is this information.
I had fondly hoped that the founding fathers had a fear of a demagogue. Such a man would sway the masses. He would make impossible promises. He would play one group off against the other. Each group rather than lose their particular area of affluence, would pervert the democratic process. I had fondly hoped that after such a man gained power-, using lies and subversive unpatriotic emissaries, he would not be allowed to gain power again.
Turns out I was wrong- pity.
Newbies, Retreads and Zombie-Woofs
and their blessed vanities
when the mods wake up from their Rip Van Winkleness over vanities will be most welcome
nothing personal to you SG but dang every header I see that looks encouraging it’s ALWAYS A GD VANITY!
Jews are the world’s smartest race but their POTUS vote is only crucial maybe in South Florida.
Mac will not get a majority Jewish vote....but he will do better than anyone since 1980
everywhere else they hang is lib lalaland already with goyim kooks to boot
what do FR’s chosen say?
I live and work in Hudson County , a Democrat run stronghold in NJ. I was in the company a of a few political hacks recently who were saying that now that Klinton was out of the race they were being forced to vote McCain because even these Dem hacks couldn’t in good conscious vote for Obama. These guys would elect a cardboard cut out if it had a (D) next to it’s name and they told me they wouldn’t vote Obama.
My mayor at a Democratic Club affair last week danced around supporting “his” Dem candidate and more or less said he’d like to feel we were all family on the same page ( meaning all Dems) but this election is an extraordinary circumstance and suggested his fellow Dems “think about who they elect” Anyone who knows NJ politics would tell you this is a MAJOR turn around for a Dem leader to not kiss the ass of a Dem presidential candidate.
PS I was not at a Dem CLUB affair, my girlfriend works for the town here and is “obligated “ to buy a ticket and show up or put her job on the line by not doing so .Ahh yes , the Democratic Party ,the party of the people !
PSS..I’m still not as optimistic as others here about tomorrows outcome.Wish I was but I don’t see it .
Good Bye America , it was nice knowing ya !
McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga....
Kind of late for that huh ?
Wow! You are a professor! I like these! Learn a couple of new things, thanks!
Since I added that to the list, “Coalgate” has taken top billing, and for excellent reason.
Obama decimating the coal industry for “the environment” should tank the rest of the non kool-aid undecideds to McCain.
It also should shake whatever union vote hasn’t already fled the metrosexual Dem candidates.
Nevertheless, the questionable character of Obama will make many rounds of the internet.
Dugg!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.