Posted on 07/01/2008 9:47:52 AM PDT by Signalman
THE interim between the primaries and the parties’ nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama’s strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.
Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It’s also wrong. Prying Southern electoral votes away from the Republicans is not so simple.
Two pervasive and persistent myths about racial voting in the modern South are behind the notion that Mr. Obama might win in places like Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi.
The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Well, some polls show he is close in Virginia. But there’s no way he’s close at all in South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas. Some Dems. are optimistic about him having a shot in Florida or North Carolina, but they are long shots.
Dixie Ping
Lil Tommy and the NY Slimes are so out of touch.
Obamie won’t win the South because there are so many racist Dems mucking things up for him.
From what I’m overhearing, if he wins in Tn. then I’ll kiss Clinton’s ass for Obama.
Socialism Will Fall Again
Obama will not win any southern states.
If Obambi’s views on national defense are properly communicated to Virginians, he is TOAST.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs&feature=related
Virginia has a big military population. This kind of kumbaya-ism should have limited appeal even in the People’s Republic of Northern Virginia.
Intrade switched Virginia to leaning Dem in their last update. We’ll see.
Another thing: once the NRA exposes Obama’s voting record on the 2nd amendment, he won’t play nearly as well in VA.
Don’t even try in Louisiana. We busy recalling legislators who voted themselves a 200% pay increase and most of the population of New Orleans East and the 9th Ward are visiting relatives. So the sure thing that could have been, isn’t!
“It’s also wrong.” even a stopped clock....
Thanks for the ping SB.
Obama has a decent shot at Virginia with a 20% African American population and a good number of transplanted, leftist yankees. Probably a lesser, but still a solid shot at North Carolina with a 21% African American population, Chapel Hill whackos, and another good number of transplanted, leftist yankees. Georgia may also be in the running with around a 29% African American population and the same issues with VA and NC. The Latino vote, legal or illegal, may also be a factor in NC and GA. I look for pervasive voter fraud in minority precincts.
The conclusion: Obama has a shot in Virginia, but he might as well write off the rest of the South.
No, I think it is quite different. First it has a larger black demographic. Second, the composition of the white demographic is also very different. Virginia has lots more middle-income suburbanite Northeastern transplants, mostly living just outside DC, than any of the states you mention. In addition, Appalacian types, rust belt working stiffs, and other types of Reagan Democrats are much fewer in number in Virginia. All of these factors make it a lot more likely to swing to Obama.
There's a reason he beat Hillary in Virginia.
He's got an outside shot at beating McCain there, too.
Obama will not even win VA.
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