No, I think it is quite different. First it has a larger black demographic. Second, the composition of the white demographic is also very different. Virginia has lots more middle-income suburbanite Northeastern transplants, mostly living just outside DC, than any of the states you mention. In addition, Appalacian types, rust belt working stiffs, and other types of Reagan Democrats are much fewer in number in Virginia. All of these factors make it a lot more likely to swing to Obama.
There's a reason he beat Hillary in Virginia.
He's got an outside shot at beating McCain there, too.