Skip to comments.GOP Insiders See Giuliani's Lead as Fragile
Posted on 03/13/2007 2:27:45 PM PDT by Spiff
Despite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's lead in the polls, Republican insiders say the GOP base is so divided and Giuliani's ascension is so fragile that the party's presidential nomination for 2008 is totally up for grabs.
"I've never seen the party so split," says a GOP strategist with close ties to evangelical Christians.
Giuliani, despite his strong image from 9/11, consistently falls well short of a majority. The latest CNN survey gives him a 34-18 lead over John McCain in the race for the Republican nomination.
"Contrary to the view inside the Beltway," the strategist says, "we don't have anybody who is the torch bearer or who is remotely agreed upon."
There is also a growing belief among social conservatives that the race isn't starting too early, as some pundits and White House political architect Karl Rove have said. Instead, the GOP rank and file welcomes the early start of the campaign because they will need a long time to assess all the candidates and see how they operate under pressure. Many social conservative activists argue that Giuliani's lead in the polls will begin melting away as the year wears on and as conservatives scrutinize his liberal record on abortion, gun control, and gay rights.
"For very good reasons, the base will say 'no thanks' to Rudy," says the strategist. "Eventually there will be a reckoning."
He sees the start of that reckoning in the negative ripples among religious conservatives caused by recent news stories about the distant relationship between Giuliani and his son and about Giuliani's three marriages.
"Is this what you expected, McCain?"
"No. This is just the beginning."
THANK YOU! I have yet to see a Die Hard 2 reference!!!
Now Stack 'em, pack 'em, and rack 'em :P!
Doesn't matter though. The Giulianis will find that ship before we do anyway.
Rudy is the stalking horse for the return of the Rockefeller Republicans, IMHO.
You are wrong. Rudy's candidacy is an abomination to many of us. He should be challenging Hillary and Obama for the Democrat nomination. His views nearly mirror theirs.
I am a 30-year GOP stalwart and support Giuliani as our nominee for one simple reason: I want to hold the White House. The only candidate who can win other than Giuliani is Thompson, whom I would prefer.
McCain, Romney, Gingrich, Hunter, Brownback, etc are all losers to Hillary. She and the Clinton machine would make mincemeat of these good and decent men in a New York minute.
Agreed. Mincemeat will be on the menu in 2008 if the reps don't field a powerhouse candidate with wide appeal. So far, Rudy it the only one.
More losers, added to the current contingent.
Oh sure, the wheels are just flying off, aren't they? LOL.
Not yet, but the lugnuts are very loose.
Not only has Rudy been historically wrong on RKBA issues, he is too damned arrogant to admit it.
I won't even begin to play the "maybe" game, nominate Rudy and watch me go fishing. It is too late to make an honest Republican out of him.
It's fragile alright.
Keep an eye on Sam Brownback.
Good, maybe the bigwigs at the RNC can convince Rooty Julieannie to drop out now.
That 34 percent is quite misleading when you look at how he fares state by state. Rudy can easily win the nomination without the south. No one else can.
And all those pro-Rudy polls....those are credible?
Please. Once Giuliani wins the GOP nomination, it'll be open season on him. All of Rudy's social liberalism will be front and center.
] Rudy has no chance of winning.
Many conservatives will benefit from a Giuliani led ticket. I predict virtually no one will refuse to campaign with him. In 2006 all of our congressional and senate candidates were clamoring for Rudy's endorsement, and they will again. He gave them his support without equivocation. You equivocate when it comes to him, but he does not equivocate when it comes to your candidates. That speaks volumes.
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