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GOP Insiders See Giuliani's Lead as Fragile
U.S. News & World Report ^ | 13 March 2007 | Kenneth T. Walsh

Posted on 03/13/2007 2:27:45 PM PDT by Spiff

GOP Insiders See Giuliani's Lead as Fragile

March 13, 2007 | 4:03 PM

White House correspondent Kenneth T. Walsh:

Despite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's lead in the polls, Republican insiders say the GOP base is so divided and Giuliani's ascension is so fragile that the party's presidential nomination for 2008 is totally up for grabs.

"I've never seen the party so split," says a GOP strategist with close ties to evangelical Christians.

Giuliani, despite his strong image from 9/11, consistently falls well short of a majority. The latest CNN survey gives him a 34-18 lead over John McCain in the race for the Republican nomination.

"Contrary to the view inside the Beltway," the strategist says, "we don't have anybody who is the torch bearer or who is remotely agreed upon."

There is also a growing belief among social conservatives that the race isn't starting too early, as some pundits and White House political architect Karl Rove have said. Instead, the GOP rank and file welcomes the early start of the campaign because they will need a long time to assess all the candidates and see how they operate under pressure. Many social conservative activists argue that Giuliani's lead in the polls will begin melting away as the year wears on and as conservatives scrutinize his liberal record on abortion, gun control, and gay rights.

"For very good reasons, the base will say 'no thanks' to Rudy," says the strategist. "Eventually there will be a reckoning."

He sees the start of that reckoning in the negative ripples among religious conservatives caused by recent news stories about the distant relationship between Giuliani and his son and about Giuliani's three marriages.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: abortion; adulterer; liberal
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To: Question Liberal Authority

"Is this what you expected, McCain?"

"No. This is just the beginning."

THANK YOU! I have yet to see a Die Hard 2 reference!!!

Now Stack 'em, pack 'em, and rack 'em :P!

Doesn't matter though. The Giulianis will find that ship before we do anyway.


21 posted on 03/13/2007 3:14:44 PM PDT by edh
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To: Liz

Rudy is the stalking horse for the return of the Rockefeller Republicans, IMHO.


22 posted on 03/13/2007 3:16:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Newt Gingrich/John Bolton 2008)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Rudy is the stalking horse for the return of the Rockefeller Republicans, IMHO.

Bingo.

23 posted on 03/13/2007 3:19:14 PM PDT by Spiff (Rudy Giuliani Quote (NY Post, 1996) "Most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine.")
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To: massadvj

You are wrong. Rudy's candidacy is an abomination to many of us. He should be challenging Hillary and Obama for the Democrat nomination. His views nearly mirror theirs.


24 posted on 03/13/2007 3:19:28 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: massadvj

Concur.

I am a 30-year GOP stalwart and support Giuliani as our nominee for one simple reason: I want to hold the White House. The only candidate who can win other than Giuliani is Thompson, whom I would prefer.

McCain, Romney, Gingrich, Hunter, Brownback, etc are all losers to Hillary. She and the Clinton machine would make mincemeat of these good and decent men in a New York minute.


25 posted on 03/13/2007 3:20:11 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: mwl1

Agreed. Mincemeat will be on the menu in 2008 if the reps don't field a powerhouse candidate with wide appeal. So far, Rudy it the only one.


26 posted on 03/13/2007 3:23:00 PM PDT by tkathy (Rudy/Romney 2008)
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To: massadvj
"More LSM jabbering, trying to muster up anti-Rudy sentiment on the right. Once McCain is out, virtually all of those votes go to Giuliani."

McCain has been falling in the polls and none of that support has been going to Rudy. He is stuck at 34%.
27 posted on 03/13/2007 3:26:16 PM PDT by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super Walmart for news .)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet


More losers, added to the current contingent.


28 posted on 03/13/2007 3:26:25 PM PDT by Liz (Hunter: For some candidates, a conservative constituency is an inconvenience. For me, it is my hope.)
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To: pissant
From fragile to collapsed by end of summer.

Oh sure, the wheels are just flying off, aren't they? LOL.

29 posted on 03/13/2007 3:28:55 PM PDT by Jhensy
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To: Jhensy

Not yet, but the lugnuts are very loose.


30 posted on 03/13/2007 3:35:26 PM PDT by pissant (http://www.gohunter08.com/)
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To: Spiff

Not only has Rudy been historically wrong on RKBA issues, he is too damned arrogant to admit it.
I won't even begin to play the "maybe" game, nominate Rudy and watch me go fishing. It is too late to make an honest Republican out of him.


31 posted on 03/13/2007 3:55:35 PM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (THE SECOND AMENDMENT, A MATTER OF FACT, NOT A MATTER OF OPINION)
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To: Spiff
Its good to see not everyone is following the pro-Rudy buildup being propagated by the MSM.
32 posted on 03/13/2007 4:08:11 PM PDT by Reagan Man (FUHGETTABOUTIT Rudy....... Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
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To: Spiff

It's fragile alright.


33 posted on 03/13/2007 4:13:54 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Keep an eye on Sam Brownback.


34 posted on 03/13/2007 4:15:04 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: Spiff
"For very good reasons, the base will say 'no thanks' to Rudy," says the strategist. "Eventually there will be a reckoning."

Good, maybe the bigwigs at the RNC can convince Rooty Julieannie to drop out now.

35 posted on 03/13/2007 4:16:33 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: Beagle8U

That 34 percent is quite misleading when you look at how he fares state by state. Rudy can easily win the nomination without the south. No one else can.


36 posted on 03/13/2007 4:19:06 PM PDT by massadvj
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To: Jhensy
Wow, that was hard-hitting, Spiff. Mort Zuckerman's U.S. News & World Report quoting a single unnamed evangelical source!

And all those pro-Rudy polls....those are credible?

37 posted on 03/13/2007 4:21:12 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Good night Chesty, wherever you are!)
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To: massadvj
Giuliani seems to be the candidate they fear most, and for good reason.

Please. Once Giuliani wins the GOP nomination, it'll be open season on him. All of Rudy's social liberalism will be front and center.

] Rudy has no chance of winning.

38 posted on 03/13/2007 4:25:25 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Good night Chesty, wherever you are!)
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To: massadvj
"That 34 percent is quite misleading when you look at how he fares state by state. Rudy can easily win the nomination without the south. No one else can."

If the primary voters are split enough he could win the nomination with 34%, but that 34% wont win the general.

If we nominate someone that loses the southern states the RATS win.
39 posted on 03/13/2007 4:25:41 PM PDT by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super Walmart for news .)
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To: Luke21
Schwartzenegger's nomination was an abomination to the religious right, and it didn't prevent him from winning in California. A similar dynamic is at play in the 2008 general election. After 2006, I think the party is so spooked, electability will be the critical issue. Some ideologues, like you, may abandon the process. But most will not.

Many conservatives will benefit from a Giuliani led ticket. I predict virtually no one will refuse to campaign with him. In 2006 all of our congressional and senate candidates were clamoring for Rudy's endorsement, and they will again. He gave them his support without equivocation. You equivocate when it comes to him, but he does not equivocate when it comes to your candidates. That speaks volumes.

40 posted on 03/13/2007 4:31:00 PM PDT by massadvj
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