GOP Insiders See Giuliani's Lead as Fragile

U.S. News & World Report ^ | 13 March 2007 | Kenneth T. Walsh

[Spiff]

GOP Insiders See Giuliani's Lead as Fragile

March 13, 2007 | 4:03 PM

White House correspondent Kenneth T. Walsh:

Despite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's lead in the polls, Republican insiders say the GOP base is so divided and Giuliani's ascension is so fragile that the party's presidential nomination for 2008 is totally up for grabs.

"I've never seen the party so split," says a GOP strategist with close ties to evangelical Christians.

Giuliani, despite his strong image from 9/11, consistently falls well short of a majority. The latest CNN survey gives him a 34-18 lead over John McCain in the race for the Republican nomination.

"Contrary to the view inside the Beltway," the strategist says, "we don't have anybody who is the torch bearer or who is remotely agreed upon."

There is also a growing belief among social conservatives that the race isn't starting too early, as some pundits and White House political architect Karl Rove have said. Instead, the GOP rank and file welcomes the early start of the campaign because they will need a long time to assess all the candidates and see how they operate under pressure. Many social conservative activists argue that Giuliani's lead in the polls will begin melting away as the year wears on and as conservatives scrutinize his liberal record on abortion, gun control, and gay rights.

"For very good reasons, the base will say 'no thanks' to Rudy," says the strategist. "Eventually there will be a reckoning."

He sees the start of that reckoning in the negative ripples among religious conservatives caused by recent news stories about the distant relationship between Giuliani and his son and about Giuliani's three marriages.

[Spiff]

((((STOP RUDY PING))))

[Clara Lou]

Fred Thompson needs to run. That (among other things) will stop Rudy.

[Delphinium]

They know its fragile thats why they resort to phony polls and lies, trying to make us think he is the "only"one to save America.

[Question Liberal Authority]

"Is this what you expected, McCain?"

"No. This is just the beginning."

[AZRepublican]

I wish I had the confidence Hunter could win FL, OH and PA.

[HitmanLV]

It's more likely that Fred Thompson will wind up Rudy's VP than it is likely he will stop Rudy in the primaries.

[flashbunny]

"Despite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's lead in the polls, Republican insiders say the GOP base is so divided and Giuliani's ascension is so fragile that the party's presidential nomination for 2008 is totally up for grabs"

[Jhensy]

Wow, that was hard-hitting, Spiff. Mort Zuckerman's U.S. News & World Report quoting a single unnamed evangelical source! OOOOOHHHH....

Lame. Try again.

[Clara Lou]

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think you're wrong.

[boomop1]

Neither will accept second banana.

[WalterSkinner]

"I've never seen the party so split," says a GOP strategist with close ties to evangelical Christians

..somebody has been visiting FR...

[kinoxi]

I think the hardcore dem base (coerced union members,welfare recipients, dead people, vacant lots, etc.) will vote no matter who the nominee is. I think if Rudy is the nominee many R's will stay home on principle thus handing the White House to the dems. I won't 'sit it out' personally if Rudy wins the nomination but I can't argue with those that do. He might as well be a dem when you look at many policy issues.

[kinoxi]

That's why the MSM love's Rudy so much.

[pissant]

From fragile to collapsed by end of summer.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Prediction: None of the "RINO THREE" will be the nominee come November 2008.

[Liz]

....there are negative ripples among religious conservatives about the distant relationship between Giuliani and his son, and about Giuliani's three marriages......

When Andrew Giuliani outed Rudy as a miserable father with a possessive, domineering third wife who demands Rudy stay away from his kids, America spoke loud and clear.

88% of those polled said they had a problem with Rudy not attending his son's graduation.

Now that's a poll with political punch (not A Julie Annie faked-up, manufactured poll).

[massadvj]

More LSM jabbering, trying to muster up anti-Rudy sentiment on the right. Once McCain is out, virtually all of those votes go to Giuliani. After 2006, the GOP is not going to put out a nominee who cannot capture the imaginations of swing voters. So unless Thompson or someone else can demonstrate a capability to beat the likely Dim nominees in PA, VA, MO, etc. Then Rudy will be the choice.

We are seeing more and more stories like this from LSM outlets of late. Giuliani seems to be the candidate they fear most, and for good reason.

[Liz]

It's time to acknowledge that Julie-Annie is a very dangerous man.

Rudy's intrusion into the Republican party is a prelude to the decline of the American republic, the two-party system, and the systems of checks and balances the founders built into our system of government.

The Rudyoids stalk conservatives, demean them at every turn, and sneer at the issues conservatives hold dear, even threatening conservatives' free speech. This is only the prelude to the larger plan----to throw social conservatives off the Repub lifeboat, to trash the Constitution, so that liberals control all facets of government.

That's decidedly not what the Founders intended.

Rudy and his liberal control-freaks are a distinct threat to the two-party system, and to the system of checks and balances the founders built into our system of government.

Giuliani's intrusion into Repub politics is the initial step in the decline of the American republic as we know it.

[Ikemeister]

"Prediction: None of the "RINO THREE" will be the nominee come November 2008."

I think you are correct. If someone like Fred Thompson jumps in....McRudyRomney are history.

[edh]

"Is this what you expected, McCain?"

"No. This is just the beginning."

THANK YOU! I have yet to see a Die Hard 2 reference!!!

Now Stack 'em, pack 'em, and rack 'em :P!

Doesn't matter though. The Giulianis will find that ship before we do anyway.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Rudy is the stalking horse for the return of the Rockefeller Republicans, IMHO.

[Spiff]

Rudy is the stalking horse for the return of the Rockefeller Republicans, IMHO.

Bingo.

[Luke21]

You are wrong. Rudy's candidacy is an abomination to many of us. He should be challenging Hillary and Obama for the Democrat nomination. His views nearly mirror theirs.

[mwl1]

Concur.

I am a 30-year GOP stalwart and support Giuliani as our nominee for one simple reason: I want to hold the White House. The only candidate who can win other than Giuliani is Thompson, whom I would prefer.

McCain, Romney, Gingrich, Hunter, Brownback, etc are all losers to Hillary. She and the Clinton machine would make mincemeat of these good and decent men in a New York minute.

[tkathy]

Agreed. Mincemeat will be on the menu in 2008 if the reps don't field a powerhouse candidate with wide appeal. So far, Rudy it the only one.

[Beagle8U]

"More LSM jabbering, trying to muster up anti-Rudy sentiment on the right. Once McCain is out, virtually all of those votes go to Giuliani."

McCain has been falling in the polls and none of that support has been going to Rudy. He is stuck at 34%.

[Liz]

More losers, added to the current contingent.

[Jhensy]

From fragile to collapsed by end of summer.

Oh sure, the wheels are just flying off, aren't they? LOL.

[pissant]

Not yet, but the lugnuts are very loose.

[SWAMPSNIPER]

Not only has Rudy been historically wrong on RKBA issues, he is too damned arrogant to admit it.
I won't even begin to play the "maybe" game, nominate Rudy and watch me go fishing. It is too late to make an honest Republican out of him.

[Reagan Man]

Its good to see not everyone is following the pro-Rudy buildup being propagated by the MSM.

[yldstrk]

It's fragile alright.

[yldstrk]

Keep an eye on Sam Brownback.

[wagglebee]

"For very good reasons, the base will say 'no thanks' to Rudy," says the strategist. "Eventually there will be a reckoning."

Good, maybe the bigwigs at the RNC can convince Rooty Julieannie to drop out now.

[massadvj]

That 34 percent is quite misleading when you look at how he fares state by state. Rudy can easily win the nomination without the south. No one else can.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Wow, that was hard-hitting, Spiff. Mort Zuckerman's U.S. News & World Report quoting a single unnamed evangelical source!

And all those pro-Rudy polls....those are credible?

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Giuliani seems to be the candidate they fear most, and for good reason.

Please. Once Giuliani wins the GOP nomination, it'll be open season on him. All of Rudy's social liberalism will be front and center.

] Rudy has no chance of winning.

[Beagle8U]

"That 34 percent is quite misleading when you look at how he fares state by state. Rudy can easily win the nomination without the south. No one else can."

If the primary voters are split enough he could win the nomination with 34%, but that 34% wont win the general.

If we nominate someone that loses the southern states the RATS win.

[massadvj]

Schwartzenegger's nomination was an abomination to the religious right, and it didn't prevent him from winning in California. A similar dynamic is at play in the 2008 general election. After 2006, I think the party is so spooked, electability will be the critical issue. Some ideologues, like you, may abandon the process. But most will not.

Many conservatives will benefit from a Giuliani led ticket. I predict virtually no one will refuse to campaign with him. In 2006 all of our congressional and senate candidates were clamoring for Rudy's endorsement, and they will again. He gave them his support without equivocation. You equivocate when it comes to him, but he does not equivocate when it comes to your candidates. That speaks volumes.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I am a 30-year GOP stalwart and support Giuliani as our nominee for one simple reason: I want to hold the White House.

Please don't be taken in by this self-fulfilling prophecy.

Rudy is a liberal. His record is all documented and verified. Would you trust a President who openly believes in abortion, thinks that the 2nd Amendment is for hunting, to safeguard our guaranteed rights and freedoms?

[massadvj]

Giuliani's social liberalism is a POSITIVE in the general election. If Jim Talent, Rick Santorum and George Allen had been social liberals, they'd be in office today. Evidence? Specter comes from the same state as Santorum and gets 65 percent of the vote.

If 2006 taught us anything it is that the religious right is politically out of touch. Their support is a net negative in most of the swing states.

[nothingnew]

I wish I had the confidence Hunter could win FL, OH and PA.

Indeed. Now is the time to get behind and push for Hunter. Since the "chosen" chose to come out so early, Hunter needs our push now.

Look, it will come down to the primaries...whoever wins the primary will get the votes in November. There is absolutely no harm in backing anyone until then.

Let's give support to Duncan...the vote will happen no matter what.

FMCDH(BITS)

[massadvj]

Neither Hillary nor Obama nor Gore can take the south, even against Giuliani. In fact, against Hillary, Giuliani would take most of the southern states by a greater plurality than Bush beat Kerry.

Even the south is evolving into a secular, urban majority. Giuliani is appealing to a large number of these folks, and the most of the rural bible thumpers will compromise when push comes to shave.

[nothingnew]

She and the Clinton machine would make mincemeat of these good and decent men in a New York minute.

When are the highly esteemed and all knowing publican leadership going to make mincemeat out of hillary? If the pub-powers-that-be had a sack with the jewels still in it, she wouldn't stand a chance.

Hahahaha!!!! When will our "leaders" dare to speak the unmitigated truth about her all over the news outlets? Hahahaha!.....never!

She is an easy target to utterly destroy if the "men" in our party had any balls. (I don't want to hear about any frikkin' FBI files either!)

FMCDH(BITS)

[massadvj]

Rudy isn't polling at 34 percent in a general election. He polls in the hi 40's against Hillary in the low 40's. He beats her easily in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and is competitive in California and New York while sweeping the red states. He does even better against Obama. Goodness, what other candidate can accomplish that?

[Beagle8U]

No offense, but I think you're dreaming. There is no way Rudy could win running as a Republican.

[USS Alaska]

I'd comment. but on this thread anything that I'd say would be redundantI've seen bullship, but the Rudy haters and lovers have lost all common sense. Good grief, pull out the football, Lucy, you guys are like dickie morris eating whores toes. Can't get enough of it. I surrender.

[Brucifer]

"nominate Rudy and watch me go fishing."


Exactly. I would rather take my chances with a Clinton presidency than a Rudy presidency. If Rudy is president he is the head of the Republican party. If Rudy is president we have no voice. I will not be a lick-spittle for a lousy RINO.

[Pinkbell]

That's true. A Clinton presidency would be horrendous, but at least we would still have a voice. With Guiliani, he will be head of the Republican Party, and in turn he will swing the party left. There is no need for two parties left of center.

I know that many social conservatives are not going to support a social liberal like Rudy. As a Dem told me, if Rudy wins, they call it a "moral victory".

What have you won if you compromised everything you've stood for?