Posted on 03/20/2006 4:54:46 PM PST by Aetius
Why would Pennsylvania be considered a toss-up at this point? At this point, Santorum is toast, as every poll has Casey Jr cleaning his clock. Will it tighten? Probably so, but Santorum will likely have to wipe the floor with Casey in debates, and if he gets it close, then hope that there is no anti-GOP tide this year, as I can't see him surviving one.
And why exactly has Kennedy in Minnesota been listed as a 'leaning GOP takeover', almost from the get-go? I've yet to see a single poll showing him above the low-mid 40s, and I can't remember any that show him with an actual lead over his prospective Dem opponents. I can see this listed as a genuine toss-up, but I just don't understand why anyone would rank Kennedy's chances as better than whichever Democrat he faces...at this time. Give me at least one poll showing him in the lead! Even Minnesota's popular incumbent Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, is now down in the polls, so things don't really look good in Minnesota.
Montana: Burn lost his once formidable lead in the wake of the Abramoff hubbub, and is now down to both potential opponents. He barely won last time w/o the taint (fair or not) of scandal. And remember, the state Dem party has made a tremendous comeback in Montana, now dominating state govt, leaving only Congressman Rehberg and Bush's landslide victories there as something to point to for Republicans. So again, with all the momentum against him, how does Miller rate Burns as a likely winner?
Missouri: That Talent can't pull away (and has even lost his lead) is troubling.
Let's face it, things do not look good right now. Coming out of 2004 we thought we had a chance to crack the magic 60 mark (or at least come very close), but recruiting failures, plus Iraq fatigue, plus a behind-the-ball White House, plus high gas prices are combining to shatter that hope.
Of course, we can't get too down, as it will only make things worse, and possibly result in a self-fulfilling prophecy, but I see no reason in deluding ourselves about the state of things as they now exist.
Don't forget New Jersey either. The polls started off pro-Kean a few months ago, but as time passes, Menendez keeps picking up steam. He'll win this election pretty handily at this point, so NJ will be a likely Democrat retention, not a toss-up like this article asserts.
What a bunch of horse swill. I for one cannot wait to see the looks on the MSM/DNC/RINO establishment's faces when Harris wins.
I know I don’t care for DeWine (or Voinabitch either for that matter).
Thanks for that reminder, as I meant to speak of NJ too.
Over the past few elections, it seems as though Republicans (Franks, Forrester, Bush) have polled pretty well leading up to the election, only to see the actual votes reveal easy Democrat victories. So I wouldn't rate Kean Jr's chances as very good unless he has an actual lead going into November.
I hope you're right. If I lived in Florida, I'd vote for Harris, but things do not look good for her.
Though you have to respect her for being willing to stand up and run, I can't help but wonder if her personal fortune has scared away some other good candidates who would have a much better chance of ousting the liberal Nelson, but who does not relish an expensive primary fight.
Answer: maybe. If they start growing some balls between then and now.
I understand. Incumbents often pull ahead in the final weeks as people consider the potential loss of influence in Washington.
Basically, he's forecasting no or little change and I tend to agree. I don't forsee any sort of seismic shift that would give Republicans a filibusterproof majority or return control to the Democrats.
The only place where I don't see reason for optimism is in New Jersey. Haven't we seen polls all decade where the Republican was within striking distance of statewide races only to lose terribly in the actual election? Kaen's a decent Jersey Republican but I just don't believe polls from that state anymore.
we win maryland and nj
If the Republican Party and Senate start to educate the public about what was in the 78 thousand box dump of documents, it could be real good for all the Republicans.
And every time the Democrats in public bring up some stupidity regarding WMD or the war, slap them back down with Saddam's confiscated documents.
THAT is how IMO we PICK UP SEATS.
To "keep" control of the Senate, wouldn't Republicans have to actually hold it in the first place? Seems to me the Senate is ruled by RINOs like the Gang of Seven.
Response: If the Republicans keep the Senate then we will head towards disaster at 121.00 M.P.H. If the Democrats take over then we will approach disaster at 121.01 MP.H.
Response: If the Republicans keep the Senate then we will head towards disaster at 121.00 M.P.H. If the Democrats take over then we will approach disaster at 121.01 MP.H.
Yeah?
Well your " plus Iraq fatigue, plus a behind-the-ball White House, plus high gas prices are combining to shatter that hope." is not an unbiased view of the world and sure as hell does'nt reflect any kind of a consensus.
Fact is, it's uncomfortably aromatic of talking points to earn you an outsider status 'till we have cause to think otherwise.
Can somebody please enlighten me on this one? Tom Rooney running as a Republican????? Was he planning on never returning to P'burgh? The Rooneys snub Rush Limbaugh and don't even want him as a "Stillers" fan and one of them was considering running in a GOP primary? Lucky for FL that he isn't running because in November they would have a choice between a Democrat and a Democrat. Oh, wait, I forgot. It's ok the guy is just a transplanted Pennsylvania Republicrat which is fine. It's only conservatives that the Rooneys despise.
It seems optimistic to me. No way for example can we say that Fla. is "leaning Dem retention." Right now, looks like a blow out.
I was trying to list some things that might account for President Bush's awful approval rating, the terrible Democrat vs Republican generic ballot, and the bad polling data in the individual Senate races.
What would you say are the causes?
Other than being largely irrelevant? Well nothing.
The Dems have staged a virtually non-stop campaign of raw hatred with zero evidence of one shred of an agenda.
The American public has taken note. The results will speak for themselves.
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