Posted on 03/19/2006 6:51:10 PM PST by Flavius
One of Iraq's most pro-western figures and an ex-prime minister yesterday became the first of its leaders to express what most of his compatriots fear: the country is in the grip of a "terrible" civil war. John Reid and Iyad Allawi Defence Secretary John Reid meets with Iyad Allawi
Iyad Allawi's acknowledgement of the violence sweeping the nation was not the sort of tribute America or Britain were hoping for on the eve of today's third anniversary of their invasion.
John Reid, the Defence Secretary, who was visiting British troops in Basra yesterday, had argued that those predicting that Iraq was heading towards civil war were siding with terrorists.
But Mr Allawi, chosen by coalition forces to lead Iraq when its sovereignty was restored in 2004 and the leader who supported their assaults on Najaf and Fallujah, was adamant.
"We are losing each day an average of 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more," he said. "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is. Iraq is in the middle of a crisis. Maybe we have not reached the point of no return yet, but we are moving towards this point. We are in a terrible civil conflict now."
Unless a new government was formed soon, ending political paralysis and re-establishing central authority, Iraq "will not only fall apart but sectarianism will spread throughout the region," he said. "And even Europe and the United States would not be spared all the violence that may occur as a result of sectarian problems in this region."
His is the majority view among ordinary Iraqis, although the scale of the approaching catastrophe is hotly debated.
Iraq factfile
Already some of Baghdad's luggage shops have reported running out of stock as many of those who can leave the country rush for the exit.
Iraqi leaders have insisted that the country pulled back from the brink of civil war when a curfew stopped the worst excesses after the destruction of Samarra's Golden Mosque last month.
But the number of bodies discovered around Baghdad alone is still averaging 30 a day and hundreds of people are reported to have fled their homes as gangs impose a form of "sectarian cleansing".
Yesterday a security cordon of 8,000 Iraqi police and soldiers was in place to protect hundreds of thousands of Shia gathering in Kerbala to mark a major religious holiday.
But the show of force still could not stop a missile being fired at the crowd, presumably by Sunni extremists.
Corpses of Shia pilgrims en route to Kerbala for the festival were turning up on the road from Baghdad for much of last week.
With the situation so appalling, the argument whether a civil war is under way or not can appear to be mere semantics. Indeed, many academic models identify a civil war as an intra-state conflict with 1,000 dead. On those criteria the definition held good a long time ago.
Mr Reid initially refused to believe Mr Allawi had made such negative remarks and sought to find a reason for his statement.
"I fully understand why he wants to stress the urgency of the need for a government of national unity; that's precisely the message I have been giving out," he said. "The essential thing is to show maximum unity in a government of national unity so that the terrorists that do want a civil war do not get their wish."
Mr Reid said that civil war was still neither imminent nor inevitable.
"Every politician I have met here from the prime minister to the president, the defence minister and indeed Iyad Allawi himself said to me there is an increase in the sectarian killing," he said.
"But there is not a civil war and we will not allow a civil war to develop."
It is an argument that would have had more weight had he not also insisted that all the ordinary Iraqis, workers on British bases and in the embassy he had spoken to were also "not talking about civil war".
If so, they were the only ones.
If gang bangers kill each other over their turf that's civil war. Who would have figured?
Careful what you promise, bucko.
When the Brits slammed Iraq together 90 years ago, they purposefully put together three groups that did not get along. Perhaps it is time they went their separate ways, a la India and Pakistan.
Mohandas Ghandi freed India which then had a civil war with what became Pakistan. Does that make Ghandi wrong?
No.
Seems like we have civil war here, too. :(
i think it is interesting that as US combat casualities are declining precipitously the media is shifting to a Civil war argument.
In some respects, the civil war rhetoric helps the US and coalition partners. Allawi is saying this in order to encourage preference for his secular leadership. Civil war panics diminish public trust for sectarian leaders such as Sadr.
If we are smart, we will try to continue to strategically allow security miscues in Al Sadr's provincial areas. This could reduce his legitimacy.
I do not think a civil war is taking place in Iraq.
Iraq has a little over 25 million people. The US nearly 300 million. If you were to normalize that, the 50 people killed a day would then be around 600.
It's not surprising that Alawi is behaving like this. But I'm very disappointed in the Telegraph. They seem to have joined the anti-war crowd and don't sound that much different from the Guardian or the Independent.
I think we need to just sit back, watch, and let them kill each other. Ungrateful SOB's
Congressman Billybob
Latest article: "Rep. Taylor's Office Caught in an Obvious Lie in Attempt to Smear John Armor"
The civil war in Iraq is the new lie that liberals and their media started to use few weeks ago when Al Qaeda blew up the Shia Golden Dome mosque in Samara. Liberals and their media are very much aware that the terrorist insurgency is dying so to keep their attacks against President Bush they came up with the new lie of civil war in Iraq. They and the terrorists will fail miserably and they will be both utterly defeated.
You could also say that LA is in the throes of a Civil War with rival gangs out there killing each other.
www.iraqthemodel.blogspot.com
>>>>"Lets face it. He is what is known as a politician"<<<<
For those that may be interested does anyone know if he was promoted to Politician status from the "Lying scum sucking Lawyer" pool or from the "I don't have the Balls to blow myself up radical hate America ROP" pool (not that it makes a rats ass bit of difference)
TT
I think Iraq will have a new government within a month or so. Our ambassador there is working very hard to get this thing done and done quickly.
By that idiot standard, Iraq has been in a state of civil war since 500 BC.
This is another example of the drive-by media attempting to create their own reality. If something is repeated often enough a sort of artificial credibility is cultivated—in this case to be used by the democrats in their war against the war on terror. Traditionally, liberals have had to settle for artificial credibility because they have little or no access to natural credibility.
"Civil War"....Let them come to Oakland, Richmond, San Pablo...the killing is also non-stop and we are talking about cities with only a fraction of the population of Baghdad. Then let's add Fresno, Bakersfield, LA....
You get the idea. I do not read the MSM talking about a Civil War in the U.S.
Anyone?
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