Posted on 03/19/2006 6:51:10 PM PST by Flavius
One of Iraq's most pro-western figures and an ex-prime minister yesterday became the first of its leaders to express what most of his compatriots fear: the country is in the grip of a "terrible" civil war. John Reid and Iyad Allawi Defence Secretary John Reid meets with Iyad Allawi
Iyad Allawi's acknowledgement of the violence sweeping the nation was not the sort of tribute America or Britain were hoping for on the eve of today's third anniversary of their invasion.
John Reid, the Defence Secretary, who was visiting British troops in Basra yesterday, had argued that those predicting that Iraq was heading towards civil war were siding with terrorists.
But Mr Allawi, chosen by coalition forces to lead Iraq when its sovereignty was restored in 2004 and the leader who supported their assaults on Najaf and Fallujah, was adamant.
"We are losing each day an average of 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more," he said. "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is. Iraq is in the middle of a crisis. Maybe we have not reached the point of no return yet, but we are moving towards this point. We are in a terrible civil conflict now."
Unless a new government was formed soon, ending political paralysis and re-establishing central authority, Iraq "will not only fall apart but sectarianism will spread throughout the region," he said. "And even Europe and the United States would not be spared all the violence that may occur as a result of sectarian problems in this region."
His is the majority view among ordinary Iraqis, although the scale of the approaching catastrophe is hotly debated.
Iraq factfile
Already some of Baghdad's luggage shops have reported running out of stock as many of those who can leave the country rush for the exit.
Iraqi leaders have insisted that the country pulled back from the brink of civil war when a curfew stopped the worst excesses after the destruction of Samarra's Golden Mosque last month.
But the number of bodies discovered around Baghdad alone is still averaging 30 a day and hundreds of people are reported to have fled their homes as gangs impose a form of "sectarian cleansing".
Yesterday a security cordon of 8,000 Iraqi police and soldiers was in place to protect hundreds of thousands of Shia gathering in Kerbala to mark a major religious holiday.
But the show of force still could not stop a missile being fired at the crowd, presumably by Sunni extremists.
Corpses of Shia pilgrims en route to Kerbala for the festival were turning up on the road from Baghdad for much of last week.
With the situation so appalling, the argument whether a civil war is under way or not can appear to be mere semantics. Indeed, many academic models identify a civil war as an intra-state conflict with 1,000 dead. On those criteria the definition held good a long time ago.
Mr Reid initially refused to believe Mr Allawi had made such negative remarks and sought to find a reason for his statement.
"I fully understand why he wants to stress the urgency of the need for a government of national unity; that's precisely the message I have been giving out," he said. "The essential thing is to show maximum unity in a government of national unity so that the terrorists that do want a civil war do not get their wish."
Mr Reid said that civil war was still neither imminent nor inevitable.
"Every politician I have met here from the prime minister to the president, the defence minister and indeed Iyad Allawi himself said to me there is an increase in the sectarian killing," he said.
"But there is not a civil war and we will not allow a civil war to develop."
It is an argument that would have had more weight had he not also insisted that all the ordinary Iraqis, workers on British bases and in the embassy he had spoken to were also "not talking about civil war".
If so, they were the only ones.
PS: Allawi was crushed in the last elections.
Even the French could handle that with a brigade.
Is the death rate in American cities due to murders larger than Iraq? I believe it is. We also kill about 500 people on the highway every weekend.
Lets face it. He is what is known as a politician.
For Iraq to be in a civil war it would have to be solely Iraqi vs Iraqi. This is far from reality. The majority of the insurgents are from outside Iraq's borders. In my military mind that is not a civil war but just a plain war.
Think John Kerry and what he has been doing since he got beaten by President Bush.
Allawi got his butt kicked by Talibani in the last Iraqi election. It wasn't close.
This is just bitterness and every indication (MSM notwithstanding) shows that Iraq is NOT in a Civil War.
He needs to read a little American History and focus on Lincoln. Democracy is not easy - but it's worth it.
OTOH, if Sunnis and Shia demand a sectarian war, by all means let them have it. Let's just be sure to line up the most fanatic of each on the front lines.
Apparently that is a large part of it. Foreigners are keeping it going, without them it wouldn't be a fraction of what it is.
I consider all this talk of a civil war as a sign they believe the "insurgency" is defeated,
I think civil war in Iraq depends upon your definition. Why wouldn't you consider one faction of Iraqis blowing up members of another faction on a regular basis a civil war?
Fact is, Iraqis are the most frequent victims of the insurgency.
Sounds like somebody had a chip on their shoulder.
Try living in the U.S., if you think thats bad.
I think civil war in Iraq depends upon your definition. Why wouldn't you consider one faction of Iraqis blowing up members of another faction on a regular basis a civil war?
Fact is, Iraqis are the most frequent victims of the insurgency at the hands of other Iraqis and their foreign allies.
I think civil war in Iraq depends upon your definition. Why wouldn't you consider one faction of Iraqis blowing up members of another faction on a regular basis a civil war?
This has been a tactic of theirs from the start. They know they cannot defeat the US. But now they are trying to sow the seeds of dissidence from within.
Personally I think it's an attempt to pressure the US into giving Allawi something he wants. Support for his political ambition perhaps?
The man has been a scumbag all along. Unfortunately he's been a scumbag we needed.
AQ isn't manned by Iraqis....
It's manned by OTHERS, outsiders, non-Iraqis, whatever you want to call it....
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