Posted on 08/20/2005 3:11:50 PM PDT by A. Pole
Russian pair challenge UK expert over global warming
Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.
The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.
The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.
Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer, in Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension."
To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.
If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000 (now equivalent to about £5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues to warm, the money will go the other way.
The bet is the latest in an increasingly popular field of scientific wagers, and comes after a string of climate change sceptics have refused challenges to back their controversial ideas with cash.
Dr Annan first challenged Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is dubious about the extent of human activity influencing the climate. Professor Lindzen had been willing to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 years.
No bet was agreed on that; Dr Annan said Prof Lindzen wanted odds of 50-1 against falling temperatures, so would win $10,000 if the Earth cooled but pay out only £200 if it warmed. Seven other prominent climate change sceptics also failed to agree betting terms.
In May, during BBC Radio 4's Today programme, the environmental activist and Guardian columnist George Monbiot challenged Myron Ebell, a climate sceptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, in Washington DC, to a £5,000 bet. Mr Ebell declined, saying he had four children to put through university and did not want to take risks.
Most climate change sceptics dispute the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which suggest that human activity will drive global temperatures up by between 1.4C and 5.8C by the end of the century.
Others, such as the Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg, argue that, although global warming is real, there is little we can do to prevent it and that we would be better off trying to adapt to living in an altered climate.
Dr Annan said bets like the one he made with the Russian sceptics are one way to confront the ideas. He also suggests setting up a financial-style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in the outcome of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against future risk.
"Betting on sea level rise would have a very real relevance to Pacific islanders," he said. "By betting on rapid sea-level rise, they would either be able to stay in their homes at the cost of losing the bet if sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet and have money to pay for sea defences or relocation if sea level rise was rapid."
Similar agricultural commodity markets already allow farmers to hedge against bad weather that ruins harvests.
This is a great story.
Based on all of the scientific evidence I have read, it appears that over the next decade or two, the earth with be either warmer or cooler or about the same.
Chalk one up for the Russians and also mark one in the column for common sense.
One thin is certain: putting money on the line would bring out the best analytical minds in the world -- most of which are not currently in science.
Who has the "Place Bets Now" graphic?
I'm with these guys. It's going to be cooler.
Someone correct me if I'm interpeting this the wrong way:
Prof Lindzen is saying, by the odds he wants, that it is 50 times more likely to be cooler than warmer.
What if either the winner or loser is dead? I wonder if TradeSports.com would post such a long-term bet, and how they handle the death of those betting and losing on events like Hillary Dem Nom in 2008? Do they go after the estate?
Oh yeah, well, I bet you 10,000 you're wrong!!! oh wait a minute....
Wait, everyone knows that the climate is going into imaginary numbers in the next decade.
I'm not too sure about sea level rising - take a glass and fill it with ice, pour in enough water to fill to the brim - what happens when the ice melts?
Same on earth - all the water there is, or ever was, is either in vapor, liquid or solid - the total volume is the same, it just changes around. The earth started off hot, then cooled in various places - atmosphere, oceans, and in the colder climes, it froze.
I have in my lap a Smithsonian Series book authored by C.G. Abbot, Secratary of the Smithsonian Institution. The title is "The Sun and the welfare of Man". In it he talks about his research in the variability of the sun and its effect on our weather. We discussed it in graduate school where I obtained my M.S. in Astronomy. His observations are as good or better that earth bound observations. The satellite observations that are being made today are very short term compaired wit the 22 year sunspot cycle. So don't be so sure about solar variability.
They are basically betting on something, which I don't believe humans even have any control over.
There is much thought that this warm spell preceeds an ice age to come in far future.
The Julian Simon-skis of their day :)
Yet a few more scientist that add the sun's energy output shifts to the equation. Global warming fanatics whether qualified as a bonified scientist or not, do not like to hear people talk about the huge amounts of energy solar flares can add to the equation. After all they can't take the sun away, they can with the lib/demos take your cars, factories, airconditionars etc., away from you (but not the Chicoms, God forbid). The horse manure shall continue to pile up.
Don't believe the sceptics. The skeptics have the libs frazzled.
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