Posted on 05/31/2005 9:32:05 AM PDT by kellynla
WASHINGTON — Growing Republican dominance of Senate seats in states where George W. Bush has run best looms as the principal obstacle for Democrats hoping to retake the chamber in 2006 or beyond.
With the recent struggle over judicial nominations underscoring the stakes, the battle for Senate control could attract unprecedented levels of money and energy next year.
Democrats are optimistic about their chances of ousting GOP senators in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates John F. Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. But the Democrats are unlikely to regain a Senate majority — in 2006 or soon thereafter — unless they can reverse the GOP consolidation of Senate seats in states that have supported Bush.
Since 2000, both parties have gained Senate seats in the states they typically carry in presidential campaigns. But this political partitioning provides a clear advantage for Republicans because so many more states backed Bush in his bids for the presidency.
If Democrats only gain in their part of the map, "it's like saying, 'We're going to win more home games but never worry about road games,' " said Matthew Dowd, a political advisor to the Republican National Committee and senior strategist for Bush's reelection campaign. "They could have a great home record but never win a majority."
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
The only way the Dems make headway is if voters inclined to support Republicans sit on their hands in '06 and possibly '08. And considering that by '06 we'll have had six years of a Bush Presidency, and four years of a Republican Senate, with little to nothing to show for it, I suspect there's a good chance just enough GOP voters will sit on their hands in the next election to throw some close elections to the Democrats. And the GOP will have no one to blame but themselves.
Nobody believes the Democrats have a chance to win control of the Senate in 2006.
Few people think the Democrats will have a net pick-up.
The article identifies only two states where Democrats are hopeful of making gains ... what about the states where Republicans are hopeful of making gains?
Possible Democrat gains are:
(1) Pennsylvania - a competitive state that leans just a tad Democrat, where the Democrats have a top tier challenger (Bill Casey) to face off against Rick Santorum.
(2) Rhode Island - this is a very Democrat state, and any credible challenger will have a good shoot at defeating Lincoln Chafee. (However, as of now, Chafee is looking o.k.)
Possible Republican gains -
(1) Minnesota - open seat - a competitive state that leans just a tad Democrat. The Senate race in this state looks like a toss-up.
(2) Nebraska - This is a very Republican state, and we have a credible candidate. Senator Ben Nelson describes himself as a "conservative Democrat." Yet, there ain't no such thing.
(3) North Dakota - This is another very Republican state. If Karl Rove can persuade the Governor of this state to challenge Kent Conrad, we could pick-up this seat.
(4) Florida - This is a competitive state that leans a tad Republican. We have a very good line-up for Senator, Governor, Congress and state legislature. I believe the other Senator Nelson is a slight favorite ... but not by much.
(5) Maryland - open seat - Lt. Gov. Steele is exploring jumping into this race. I think he would face a lackluster opponent in Congressman Ben Cardin. (Of course, compared to Maryland's Senator Sarbanes, Ben Cardin is a dynamo.)
(6) Washington state - With the continuing fall-out from the Democrat vote-cheating in 2004 Gubernatorial contest, we could have a chance in this state.
(7) West Virginia - Our prospects in this state are somewhat dependent on Senator Byrd's decision regarding running for re-election.
The overwhelming majority of the possibilities favor our side. Realizing it is too early to say anything definite, all I will say is that we should be expanding our majority in 2006.
This is one of the reasons the Democrats are filibustering. They can see that they are in for a long, long time of minority status in the Senate.
Excellent analysis, Red.
I wish Condi Rice would come home to CA to challenge Feinstein next year but doesn't sound like she's interested.
Little to nothing to show for it?
That's quite possibly the most dellusional thing I've ever heard.
Regardless of if they could have or should have gotten more, saying we have nothing to show for it is insane.
The 'Craps already have functional control of the Senate.
Brownstein's wife is now working as an aide to McCain.
Hugh Hewitt had it on his sight this morning. (www.hughhewitt.com) LA Times had article with announcement. Brownstein says it will not affect his reporting of McCain and/or others! LOL
Re (4): Nelson has no real challenger on the GOP side as of yet... Katherine Harris needs to make up her mind if she wants to run against an incumbent... If she says no, then who?
"The 'Craps already have functional control of the Senate."
the proverbial "tail waggin' the dog" LOL
I am convinced that the 'Craps will always be able to peel off enough RINOs to stymie any Bush attempt to move the conservative cause. Bush ain't the RINO here.
Then we have no reason not to target McCain's seat. Support the democrat who runs against him if we have to. (What's the difference?)
This may be a great chance to boot a couple of RINOS out.
I have heard that Chafee is going to face a very serious primary challenge from the mayor of Cranston, RI. I think RI is definitely a toss-up, but that would be an improvement since the seat is effectively held by the Dems.
"Re (4): Nelson has no real challenger on the GOP side as of yet... Katherine Harris needs to make up her mind if she wants to run against an incumbent... If she says no, then who?"
I am very unimpressed with Elizabeth Dole's work at this point. We have yet to field a credible Republican challenger in WV, ND, or NE. It's a sad day when you can't find a Republican in Nebraska. Hopefully, she will surprise us.
The current governor of RI should be able to make a decent, but long shot, run against Reed. A happily married candidate running against Reed would be an interesting contrast and indirectly raise the issue that nobody wants to touch but everybody knows about...
He is right, we have very little to show for it. A little here and a little there. Big darn deal. And since we could have a lot more, the blame falls upon the senate pubs. And on the party leadership for not enforcing some party discipline. And the President is head of the party, so he must also share responsibility for squeamish pubs and lackluster agenda advancement.
AND, he is very correct that enough of us are going to throw up our hands and give up on the republican clown car to cause problems.
I know some very stanch conservatives from way back, myself included, that have had it with 4 years of *spineless crap* from the senate pubs. Either Bush and the party gets control of the entire nomination quagmire or we are out. Period.
Four friggin years of stalled nominees. You call that leadership? Success? How about embarassing? How about disgusting? Have you seen *anything* that indicates senate pubs are going to grow spines or nads? NO. It is past time for them to put out or get out.
We have long since passed the realm of compromise and incrementalism. It's time to go for the jugular or get out. I have been supporting and enabling these worthless scum in the senate for 35 years. It's like being married to an alcoholic. They will never change. Whine and beg for another term, then back to the same old circle jerk.
I can't even look at most of them without gagging.
You mean there's a chance the Democrats will stop running the Senate in 2006? ;)
Feinstein is absolutely invincible in California.
In my opinion the low point of the entire Bush era was these past two weeks when the Slimy Seven betrayed every Republican, and every Constitution-believing American, in the country. And I fear that too many DISGUSTED Republicans will stay home in 06 and 08. Thanks McCain, you join John Glenn in my list of sold-out ex-heroes.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.