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Here is video of Ron Brownstein talking with MSNBC about Martha Coakley and the reasons why he thinks she's behind in the polls. (Video)Brownstein started off by blaming Coakley, he said, "Coakley was a very complacent candidate who settled in for a long winters nap, and when she emerged she didn't leave that many people wondering where she'd been, she wasn't a strong candidate in any way." Brownstein went on to say that the "overlying reality here is that the President's approval rating among white voters is below 40%...in a state like Massachusetts where over 80% of the votes are...

The White House strategy for contesting the midterm election is beginning to take shape. In an interview with National Journal, senior White House political adviser David Axelrod laid down several keys to strengthening the Democratic position in an election that all signs suggest is shaping up as extremely difficult for his party. Axelrod's checklist includes improvement in the economy, some (but not vastly more) legislative action and, most pointedly, an effort to draw sharper contrasts with Republican positions. His comments may foreshadow a much more pugnacious Democratic message as the election approaches. "It's almost impossible to win a referendum on...

One of the principal allegations against the climate-change legislation the House could consider as soon as June 26 is the charge that it would compel a transfer of wealth from Midwestern states that burn large quantities of coal to coastal states that don't. But it is more accurate to say that the bill reduces a regional disparity that allows Midwestern and other coal-dependent states to enjoy artificially low electricity prices at the expense of states elsewhere, particularly along the coasts. Rather than create a new regional inequality, the global-warming bill would lessen an existing one. The perverse pattern of today's...

The last time a presidential candidate won a landslide that simultaneously carried his party to resounding congressional gains was in 1980, when Ronald Reagan captured 44 states and swept a dozen new Republicans into the Senate and nearly three dozen into the House. Even under their rosiest scenarios, Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats would not quite match that performance this year. But unless John McCain recovers, Obama could score a decisive Electoral College and popular-vote victory that provides his party a real chance of securing double-digit gains in the House and maybe even the Senate. Reagan's commanding victory 28...

This could go on for a while. That was the overriding message from the dramatic comeback victories in the New Hampshire primary by Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. Combined with the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire results leave the parties confronting similar situations. Each side faces the prospect of an extended nomination fight between candidates who have established clear demographic strongholds, but have not yet demonstrated enough strength to dislodge their opponents from their strongholds or to unite all the divergent elements of their party's coalition. "If you look at the results that we...

Next summer, less than four months before the November election, there will still be about as many American troops fighting in Iraq as there were on the day of the Democratic sweep in the November 2006 election. That is the most politically significant fact that emerged from last week's congressional hearings with Gen. David H. Petraeus. The general said that from now until at least the middle of July, he plans to maintain about as many troops in Iraq as were in the field in the fall of 2006 -- about 140,000 in all. President Bush endorsed that strategy in...

Let's say the 7-year-old daughter of illegal immigrants working in a big American city wakes up this morning with a high fever and a rash. Is it in that city's interest for the little girl to receive treatment at a local public clinic or hospital? Or is that community better off if the child's parents try to treat her at home because they fear a doctor will ask about their immigration status -- and report them to the federal government if they can't prove they are here legally? Before you answer, recall that in the 1982 Plyler vs. Doe decision,...

This fall's midterm election won't only decide which party will control Congress and statehouses around the nation. It also could identify which states may emerge as new battlegrounds in the 2008 presidential race that will effectively begin as soon as the votes are counted in November. In the last two campaigns, the parties divided the electoral map almost exactly in half. In 2000, George W. Bush won the second-narrowest Electoral College victory since 1800. In 2004, Bush won a smaller share of Electoral College votes than any reelected president except Woodrow Wilson in 1916. But if the Republican advantage under...

WASHINGTON — This week's Senate stalemate on immigration sent a sobering message: Distrust between Republicans and Democrats has reached a level that can derail agreements, even when leaders in both parties publicly endorse the same policies. Almost all the negotiators on the issue agreed that a clear majority of senators — as many as two-thirds — were prepared to vote for compromise legislation that would toughen border security, create a new guest-worker program and establish a path to citizenship for most of the estimated 12 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally. ADVERTISEMENT But the bill stalled Friday and now faces...

Americans, by a greater than 3 to 1 margin, oppose the proposed deal that would allow a state-owned Arab firm to assume control of operations at several U.S. ports, a Times/Bloomberg poll has found. The takeover, undergoing a 45-day review by administration officials, faced broad opposition — substantial majorities of Democrats and independents, along with a solid plurality of Republicans said they do not want the agreement to proceed. Buffeted by resistance to the port transaction and discontent over the turmoil in Iraq, President Bush's approval rating fell to 38%, the lowest level recorded for him in the poll. His...

Now that the issue of what's under the tree has been settled, the biggest question facing many Democrats for the next year reduces to three words: Will Hillary run? The race for the next Democratic presidential nomination can't really take shape until Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York signals her intentions, and that probably won't come until 2007. But the expectation that she'll run is influencing the early maneuvering, as her potential rivals start to define how they might position themselves against her. If Clinton jumps in she will be the front-runner, with big leads in the early polls,...

• Democrats renew their criticism as public opposition solidifies, the body count grows and prewar intelligence is under a new assault.WASHINGTON — For months, the politics of the Iraq war have been frozen in place, with stalwart Republicans defending President Bush's policy and most Democrats shunning a direct challenge. Now the ice has begun to crack.In the face of solidifying public opposition to the war, a mounting U.S. body count and a renewed focus on the faulty intelligence used to justify the war, Democratic lawmakers and candidates have sharpened their critique of the administration's policy and, in some cases, urged...

WASHINGTON -- For months, the politics of the Iraq war have been frozen in place, with stalwart Republicans defending President Bush's policy and most Democrats shunning a direct challenge. Now, the ice has begun to crack. In the face of solidifying public opposition to the war, a mounting U.S. body count and a renewed focus on the faulty intelligence used to justify the war, Democratic lawmakers and candidates have sharpened their critique of the administration's policy and, in some cases, urged a withdrawal of U.S. troops. "The mood has really shifted," said Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.), who in August became...

One hot and humid weekend this past July, America's leading Democrats -- including some of the early favorites for their party's 2008 presidential nomination such as Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN), Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA), and Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) -- gathered in Columbus, Ohio at a conference hosted by the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. Predictably, the press had a hard time controlling its glee when Senator Clinton was announced as the point-person to lead the DLC's new political offensive -- code name "American Dream Initiative" -- to define the party's agenda for 2006 and 2008. As...

Few places in America are more reliably Republican than the southeast Pennsylvania congressional district centered in Amish country and Lancaster County. So it's little surprise that Republican Rep. Joe Pitts has faced only token opposition since he was first elected in 1996. In 2002, Democrats didn't even field an opponent to run against him. Last year, Lois Herr, a former corporate executive, entered the race against Pitts just before the filing deadline. She drew one-third of the vote. But this year, Herr is seeking a rematch, and her uphill bid against Pitts could mark a crucial test for liberal activists...

The Democratic Leadership Council, an organization of influential party moderates, on Monday named Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., to direct a new initiative to define a party agenda for the 2006 and 2008 elections. The appointment solidified the identification of Clinton -- once considered a champion of the party's left -- with the centrist movement that helped propel her husband to the White House in 1992. It also continued her effort, which has accelerated in recent months, to present herself as a moderate on issues such as national security, immigration and abortion. In her new role, Clinton immediately called for...

But the drive for party unity has always carried costs too, and they seem to be growing in Bush's second term. By asking so few tough questions of Rove — and DeLay — congressional Republicans may be increasing their vulnerability to Democratic charges that the GOP is abusing its unified control over government to protect its own. "They really have become so arrogant that they don't think the rules apply to them," Democratic consultant Joe Lockhart says — an argument likely to headline many campaigns by Democrats next year. The emphasis on party cohesion also constricts Bush's maneuverability on issues....

WASHINGTON — The Republican and Democratic senators who in the spring negotiated a truce over judicial appointments appear at odds over what that agreement will mean for the upcoming Supreme Court confirmation fight. The group — known as the Gang of 14 — wields enormous influence over two pivotal questions: Will Democratic lawmakers use a filibuster to block President Bush's nominee to succeed Justice Sandra Day O'Connor? And if they do, will Republicans resume the effort to prohibit filibusters against judicial appointments? Senators from both parties say they hope that their deal will hold. But key Democrats in the group...

How in the world are we supposed to believe that employment by a significant Washington player and probable presidential candidate of a spouse of a reporter who covers Washington players and probable presidential candidates won't affect Brownstein's judgments? Would a paper allow the wife of an Enron executive to continue reporting on the Enron scandal? Would the son of an NBA owner be allowed to cover his father's franchise? Would a sister be assigned to review a major motion picture in which her sibling had a supporting role? Brownstein gets credit for transparency in telling the audience so we can...

WASHINGTON — Growing Republican dominance of Senate seats in states where George W. Bush has run best looms as the principal obstacle for Democrats hoping to retake the chamber in 2006 or beyond. With the recent struggle over judicial nominations underscoring the stakes, the battle for Senate control could attract unprecedented levels of money and energy next year. Democrats are optimistic about their chances of ousting GOP senators in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates John F. Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. But the Democrats are unlikely to regain a Senate majority...