Posted on 12/26/2004 10:03:42 PM PST by DixieOklahoma
ARIZONA: Republicans retain
CALIFORNIA: Democrats retain
CONNECTICUT: Democrats retain
DELAWARE: Democrats retain
FLORIDA: Republican PICK-UP
HAWAII: Democrats retain
INDIANA: Republicans retain
MAINE: Republicans retain
MARYLAND: Democrats retain
MASSACHUSETTS: Democrats retain (Teddy)
MICHIGAN: Toss-up (would be REP. pickup)
MINNESOTA: Toss-up (would be REP. pickup)
MISSOURI: Republicans retain
MISSISSIPPI: Republicans retain
MONTANA: Republicans retain
NEBRASKA: Republican PICK-UP
NEVADA: Republicans retain
NEW JERSEY: Democrats retain
NEW MEXICO: (Weak) Democrats retain
NEW YORK: Democrats retain
NORTH DAKOTA: Republican PICK-UP
OHIO: Republicans retain (strong candidate)
PENNSYLVANIA: Toss-up (Would be democrat pickup)
RHODE ISLAND: Republicans (HUGE-RINO) retain
TENNESSEE: Republicans retain
TEXAS: Republicans retain
UTAH: Republicans retain
VERMONT: Independent retains (Jim Jeffords)
VIRGINIA: Republicans retain
WASHINGTON: Republican PICK-UP (Roe effect started taking place in 2004 and will overtake democratic voter fraud in two more years)
WEST VIRGINIA: Democrats retain
WISCONSIN: (weak) Democrats retain
WYOMING: Republicans retain
Grand Total: Republicans + 5 (60) Outstanding: 3 toss-ups, 2 weak democrats
A total of 17 democrats and 15 republicans are running for re-election.
Also this is in my opinion a conservative estimate. Even though that is a conservative estimate (IMHO), I will nevertheless counter for any possible bias in my humble post. And will say that republicans stand to pick up between 4 and 10 senate seats. We will have 55 in the new congress.
I will say that I believe we will stand at (R-D-I), 60-39-1 after the 2006 elections. However we very well could end up with 62-37-1. Only whishfull thinking says 65-34-1.
Of the 3 toss-up's only 1 would be a democrat pickup, meaning that the other 2 toss-up races are already held by democrats.
Why do you think the GOP will pick up the FL seat? Has Nelson said he is not running? If he runs, I would favor him to retain his seat.
BTW, this GOP voter in AL is not voting for Roy Moore. The state of Alabama is not the place for someone to be challenging the authority of the Federal government. Alabama is 0-2, really 0-3 now with Moore in choosing the right issue and the right time to question Federal authority.
Heh. I did a spreadsheet back in November.. overall I am not as optimistic as you are. Remember Republicans' capacity for running RINOs with incredible weaknesses (think Ryan in IL) or guys who couldn't win a dogcatcher campaign (Alan Keyes, who replaced Ryan after Ryan turned out to have been trying to pimp his wife -- ewww, yuck). We left a couple of easy pickups on the table this way in 2004. We'll do it again in '06.
I think Mark Dayton has a big old bull's-eye on him, and the Republicans would be meatheads to not pick his seat up. See above paragraph.
I also think Ted the Red will retire, but that's of no import, as Massachusetts has 10 Congressmen, all Dems, and at least 2 other Kennedys, who all want that seat and will have no problem winning it in the Gay State.
John, what do you think?
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
The GOP could loose the AZ seat. McCain has lost most of the base, he could lose in the primaries. If he survives the primaries he'll win the general, area liberals think he's the best thing since hired help. But if he's unseated in the primaries things will be up for grabs.
The only real seat in play is the Santorum seat, with maybe the Pubbies having a shot at the Dayton seat. My wild and premature prediction: no change, or if there is, Pubbies lose one seat.
I think that Robert KKK Byrd - West Virginia, will be gone. Maybe that is just my wishful thinking.
McCain just won by a landslide. Now what do you think of Kyl's chances. :)
It's going to depend on who retires.
oh no... That would make Kerry the Senior Senator from Mass.
Also how do you see Washington as a possible pickup? Has Cantwell said she is not running or is she in any scandle?
Any state that reelected Osama bin Murray by 12% and has a 6 to 3 Dim tilt in its Congressional seat does not seem to be trending GOP to me.
Polipundit ponders the fate of these races for the 2006 Senate:
1) Maria Cantwell of Washington State,
2) Hillary Clinton of New York,
3) Kent Conrad of North Dakota,
4) Mark Dayton of Minnesota,
5) Ben Nelson of Nebraska,
6) Bill Nelson of Florida,
7) Debbie Stabenow of Michigan.
First, I'll do the easy ones:
*
Hillary Clinton, unbeatable in New York. Rudy won't run.
*
Bill Nelson won't run. If Jeb does, it's his. Most likely will be Kathleen Harris, who most likely would polarize the Democrats. She would be well funded and probably excellently coordinated. This prediction is conditional on Jeb running or not. It's Republican if Jeb runs, Democrat if Kathleen runs.
*
Mark Dayton, safe
*
The only reason to speculate on Kent Conrad is he is a Democrat in North Dakota, which sounds like South Dakota, which reminds us of Daschle going down in flames. But, being Democrat isn't what killed Tom, his detachment from local issues was. And, I've not read any of that criticism from North Dakota. Unless some very big player jumps in, Kent's safe for now.
And, the more difficult guesses:
*
Maria Cantwell. Slade Gorton gave her everything she could handle in 2000. However, by 2006 Gorton will be 78 years old. Two rules of thumb apply here, very old very wealthy people usually don't run for first time offices, and, very old candidates don't win unless re-elected. The demographics of Washington are not changing significantly, which is heavy Democrat in registration and voting preference. I stick with Cantwell on this one unless someone very popular decides to run against her.
*
Ben Nelson's going to have a heck of a fight on his hands, and he knows it. Governor Mike Johanns' term expires in 2006. He's popular, he's in the majority party, he's got the grassroots organization in place, and he'll be well funded by the RNC. If Johanns runs, he wins.
*
Why Stabenow is here I don't know. I see nothing to speculate she's in any trouble.
Final tally, Republicans +2 based on this short list. As we learned in 2004, a LOT can happen in two years, just ask Tom Daschle.
Florida REELECTING a GOP Govenor with the Dims all hot and bothered does not mean to me that they will not reelect Nelson IF HE RUNS.
Jumpin Jim keeps it? He was originally elected as a Republican. I don't think the Dems will run any viable candidate against him, but I think a halfway decent Republican candidate can take it or at least make it a tight race.
I tell ya, I just don't know about vermont. I just don't know enough to say.. Perhapse if a good republican candidate is put up against him we could win.
I'm cautiously optimistic however, because he's an incompetent boob who has nothing to offer to Minnesota or the country other than instructions on how to evacuate staff when you think Bin Laden is going to attack.
In our town we have a local dog catcher who, while not the best we've ever had, would make a formidable opponent for Mr. Dayton.
If this buffoon is re-elected I'm going to join Alec Baldwin on the French Riviera.
Florida is one of the last southern states to tranistion to the safe Republican column. Florida is much like kentuckey only a 2 or three years behind. Florida as was Kentucky, once was a Democratic state. Both states have been slowly tranistioning to the Right. The retirees of 20 years ago were 90 percent Democrats. The retirees today are 60 percent Republican. The state is now a Repulbican leaning state. By 2006 it will be more Republican than it is today and far more Republican than it was when Jeb Bush firt ran for office.
Political amatuers tend to think in terms of personalities. But anyone who has taken the time to actually study the politics of the Uninted States will soon understand that it is issuses and political direction that decides the elections .. and only at the margin is the personal appeal of a candidate decisive.
Democrats understand things that those on the right often fail to believe. Hillary knows that she must move to the right in order to win in 2008.
Hillary is moving to the right in order to have a chance to win. She is in the process of changing her positions on the issues... she is not working on beeing a more likeable person. She like Bubba knows what it takes to win.
I don't think you do.
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