Gallup: How Americans Voted

Gallup News Service ^ | November 5, 2004 | Jeffrey M. Jones

[RWR8189]

Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups

PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative -- men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters. Bush did well in states he won in 2000, and his advantage in those states was larger than the advantage Kerry had in states that Al Gore won in 2000. Generally speaking, Bush's support by subgroup rose slightly in nearly all groups, but this was probably because there were no significant third-party candidates attracting support this year as Ralph Nader did in 2000. But Bush improved on his 2000 performance among conservatives, urban residents, and regular churchgoers beyond what can be attributed to the lack of a significant third-party candidate, while he did less well among younger voters. 

The analysis is based on Gallup's final pre-election poll of Oct. 29-31, which showed Bush at 49% and Kerry at 47% among likely voters. Those overall figures and the figures for the subgroups are adjusted to the final two-party candidate vote totals of 51.5% for Bush and 48.5% for Kerry.  

[RWR8189]

Subgroup	% of voters	% Voting for Bush	% Voting for Kerry	Bush advantage
Liberal	17	12	88	-76
Moderate	40	37	63	-26
Conservative	43	80	20	+60
Democrat	37	7	93	-86
Independent	24	48	52	-4
Republican	39	95	5	+90
Bush won state in 2000	50	58	42	+16
Gore won state in 2000	50	45	55	-10
States won by fewer than six points in 2000	35	48	52	-4

 

Subgroup	% of voters	% Voting for Bush	% Voting for Kerry	Bush advantage
Men	46	56	44	+12
Women	54	48	52	-4
White (non-Hispanic)	87	57	43	+14
Nonwhite	13	17	83	-66
Black	8	7	93	-86
18 to 29 years old	13	40	60	-20
30 to 49 years old	38	57	43	+14
50 to 64 years old	26	53	47	+6
65 years and older	24	48	52	-4
East	23	42	58	-16
Midwest	23	52	48	+4
South	33	57	43	+14
West	22	52	48	+4
Urban	28	44	56	-12
Suburban	52	54	46	+8
Rural	20	54	46	+8
Postgraduate education	20	47	53	-6
College graduate (no postgrad)	15	58	42	+16
Some college	33	56	44	+12
High school or less education	32	46	54	-8
Married	58	60	40	+20
Not married	42	40	60	-20
Married men	30	61	39	+22
Unmarried men	16	45	55	-10
Married women	28	58	42	+16
Unmarried women	26	36	64	-28
Union household	14	33	67	-34
Non-union household	86	55	45	+10
Gun owner	35	65	35	+30
Non-gun owner	65	44	56	-12
Attend church weekly	31	63	37	+26
Attend church nearly weekly/monthly	29	55	45	+10
Seldom/Never attend church	40	40	60	-20
Protestant	53	62	38	+24
Catholic	26	48	52	-4
Military veteran	20	60	40	+20

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[RWR8189]

ping

[The G Man]

Gallop can take their 49-49 tie and stick it where the polls don't shine!

[michaelbfree]

I am shocked, SHOCKED to see that after all the talk about how "stupid" we are, a higher percentage of college graduates voted for Bush than Kerry - GASP, how can that be?

[Liz]

[Cagey]

....men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans,...

Fuuny, Kerry meets (or claims to meet) seven out of eight of these categories and that didn't help him.

[angelanddevil2]

I didn't even bothered to read the excuses. I followed all the polls, they varied a lot every 5 minutes, got me confused and didn't predict well. Doesn't matter how they justify themselves now.

[madvlad]

Interesting. After that horsehockey by Barone
on Foxs News on election night re why VA, NC and SC
could not be called for Bush w/ only a small
%age of precincts we see that those of us w/
grad school went for Kerry by ONLY 53:47.
So much for the horsepockey that all "smart"
people tend to go w/ Dems. Only 53%. The way
he made it sound was that the split was more
like 80:20. Well, maybe in academia and govt
but not where the smart people have to sing for their
supper as in the NJ pharma industry.

Barone needs a prescription for a 48-hr enema.

MV

[GSlob]

Conservatives are listed as voting 80/20. 20% is not 1-5% which could be attributed to marginals and freaks. Even if it is 10-15%, what kind of a conservative would vote kerry?

[MSM Hater]

Does anyone have posting rights at DU? If so the "college graduate" row, "some college" row and "high school or less" row need to be highlighted and the whole thing posted to show that the better educated prefer Bush over Kerry. This crushes the liberal theory that Bush supporters are stupid and uneducated.

[pgkdan]

These numbers are bullsh*t...just like Gallup's 90% break of undecideds for Kerry.

[colorado tanker]

Gallup is trying to pull a Zogby here. Sorry, Gallup, your final call was not 49-47, it was 49-49. You lost your nerve, ignored your data and massaged the final result. You blew it.

[Towed_Jumper]

"An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative --

men - Yep, that's me...
whites - Yep...since birth
Southerners - Married a Sourthern girl (Chas, SC), does that count?
married voters - Yep...25+ years
churchgoers - Yep...every week.
Protestants - Yep...Calvinist.
gun owners - Yep, own lots of them...
veterans - Yep, Army...82nd Airborne Division.

I (along with many fellow FReepers), are indeed the Left's worst nightmare...

[Protagoras]

All of these numbers of course are subject to the same problems as all polls. So they may just be meaningless.

[eureka!]

marking...

[Don Simmons]

Yeah - it's interesting that the "over-educated" (post-grad, institutionalized liberal zombies) and the "under-educated" (more susceptible to baseless rhetoric propaganda) are the ones who voted more for kerry.

The "moderately-educated" (read: folks with common sense and a good bit of book learnin') were the majority voters for President Bush.

Speaks volumes.

[kesg]

The non-white vote numbers look totally out of whack.

[Moral Hazard]

A 40 point marriag gap? I'm starting to wonder why liberals support gay marriage. If gays could marry, wouldn't they start voting Republican?

[Repub4bush]

OK, now, how did Hanoi boy get 40% of the Vets vote?